Westover still has more to offer, according to our expert

Arc de Triomphe tips: Value Bet preview and best bets for Sunday at Longchamp


The Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe takes centre stage on Sunday and our expert has some big-priced fancies on the top-class Longchamp card.


Value Bet tips: Sunday October 2

1pt win Westover in 3.05 ParisLongchamp at 10/1 (General) - take no lower

1pt e.w. Rosacea in 3.50 ParisLongchamp at 40/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4) - minimum 20/1

0.5pts e.w. Rumi in 3.50 ParisLongchamp at 66/1 (BoyleSports, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4) - minimum 40/1

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


Already advised:

1pt win New London in Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 20/1 - NR


Frankel colt to relish testing conditions

Given the maximum 20-strong field and gruelling ground at Longchamp, it could be a case of ‘survival of the fittest’ in Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and WESTOVER seems unlikely to be found wanting on that score given the fantastic form of Ralph Beckett’s yard heading into the weekend.

Beckett is renowned for enjoying lots of success in the autumn months over recent seasons and it should be no real surprise he opted to sit on his hands and wait for this race with his star three-year-old colt, especially as the son of Frankel goes so well when fresh.

He won first time out as a two-year-old and again in April this year so the 71-day break since we last saw him in action at Ascot could be highly beneficial, while the underfoot conditions won’t hold any fears.

With all due respect to Pyledriver – and runner-up Torquator Tasso who reopposes here – Westover’s King George form can effectively be scrapped as he wasn’t himself at all, getting stewed up beforehand and never looking comfortable on the good to firm ground right from the start.

He’s miles better than that and while it’s hard to get too carried away with the bare facts and figures of his seven-length Irish Derby win over Piz Badile and French Aclaim, the visually impressive Curragh display did come on the back of a Sandown Classic Trial triumph, and unlucky-in-the-run Derby third.

He probably wouldn’t have beaten Desert Crown with a clear shot at things at Epsom, but he’d have finished a good bit closer, and that early-season body of work as a whole package reads well in the context of this race.

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Stamina has always looked Westover’s forte – Beckett on record stating he considered the St Leger as the long-term target – and I’m convinced we still haven’t seen this horse at his absolute peak. That may well come this weekend if he handles the preliminaries and while the 20/1 when first addressing this race is long gone, there’s still enough juice in the current price to recommend a bet.

Take two against l'Opera favourite Nashwa

The two-year-old races shown on ITV don’t really appeal and, elsewhere on the card, it’s not hard to see testing ground on this track blunting the natural speed of The Platinum Queen in the Prix de l’Abbaye De Longchamp Longines.

Admittedly, it had rained when she put up a sterling effort in the Flying Childers last time, but Doncaster soft is rarely all that bad and this will be her first trip abroad too which asks a new question entirely.

Long-range British Champions Sprint fancy Castle Star could be in his element on the going but he’s been dealt a stinking draw in stall 14 – it can be done although the last three winners, all of which were run on heavy or very soft ground, came from stalls 5, 2 and 3.

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I’ll sit tight with Fozzy Stack’s horse, who still has potential and caught the eye in the Flying Five at the Curragh, with a view to backing him again come Champions Day at Ascot.

I’ll instead have a couple of bets against Nashwa on her return from a break in the Prix de l’Opera Longines.

She has the best form and is versatile tactically so I can’t imagine her wide draw (13) proving her undoing but she’s a short enough price for one who has never raced on bad ground before (she was actually declared but taken out on account of the soft ground on her intended debut at Doncaster last October).

I’ll roll the dice with two horses proven in testing conditions, the first of which is ROSACEA who looks the wrong price - and by some way with Coral going 40/1 - based on several factors, not least her one-length French Guineas fourth and subsequent running-on third behind Nashwa (and La Parisienne) in the Prix de Diane.

She had no real chance at Chantilly, having dwelt as the gates opened, and did extremely well in the circumstances.

The daughter of Soldier Hollow spent the end of the summer on the back-burner in a typically truncated French Classic campaign, before resuming with a promising effort at Deauville on August 20. She was held up again and had to race wide on the bends but still travelled up sweetly before the lack of a recent run appeared to catch up with her.

Christophe Soumillon wasn’t overly hard on the filly once it was clear she wasn’t going to get close to the front-running winner Trevaunance, and hopefully the run might bring her on plenty as she clearly relished heavy ground when completing a two-year-old hat-trick with a Group Three win at Deauville 12 months ago.

The other one who appeals with the mud flying is four-year-old RUMI whose form on heavy, very soft and soft ground reads 11616.

Given that fact, she was running with great credit on her last two starts in the summer, most recently when a close fourth in the top-class Prix Jean Romanet.

Two of her three career wins have been achieved at Longchamp which obviously bodes well and she looks capable of a massive run at rewarding odds.

Published at 1100 BST on 01/10/22

Click here for full and transparent Value Bet record from inception


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