Ascot tips: Antepost value bets for QIPCO British Champions Day on October 15
Matt Brocklebank has his eye on a big-priced three-year-old in one of the top-class races on QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot.
Antepost Value Bet tips: QIPCO Champions Day 2022
1pt win Castle Star in British Champions Sprint Stakes at 33/1 (General)
Focus on Sprint and big-priced Irish raider
With Highfield Princess all but confirmed for Keeneland and the Breeders’ Cup in early-November, Ascot’s QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes looks as open as ever and I'm certainly not bowled over by the idea of backing 6/1 market leader Alcohol Free, who has been mixing it between distances all season.
She’s had time off since her third to Baaeed in the Sussex and may well get her favoured soft ground, which will also be to the detriment of one or two of her main rivals, chiefly Naval Crown who has never won on anything slower than good and is another opposable at current odds.
The latter’s stablemate Creative Force won this race last October and clearly comes into the reckoning, along with soft-ground lover Kinross, who could well win the Prix de la Foret en route to Ascot – in which case he’ll be even shorter than a freely-available 7/1.
There are others to consider closely if the weather properly breaks over the next three weeks or so and regular readers will know I’ve a high opinion of Brad The Brief, who has missed a bunch of potential engagements all through the summer and was my long-range fancy for Haydock.
He’s on the shortlist here but the general 14/1 looks about right, while Perfect Power isn’t exactly being missed at no bigger than 12s. Richard Fahey’s colt surely isn’t one to be giving up on, despite not living up to the promise of his Commonwealth Cup win in June, but others represent better value and CASTLE STAR looks a big price given he was beaten just half a length by Perfect Power in last year’s Middle Park.
He’s only raced twice since then and been unplaced on both occasions he’s made the track, which admittedly aren’t the most compelling reasons to get stuck in, but there have been mitigating factors.
The comeback run on July 16 – when making his belated seasonal debut after 294 days away – was clearly needed as he travelled menacingly for a long way before weakening into fifth close home in a Group Two won by Ladies Church.
Castle Star finished ahead of that rival on his next start, posting a creditable eighth behind the aforementioned Highfield Princess in the Group One Flying Five at the Curragh.
Backed at big prices and sent off 16/1 (touched 12s) under Jamie Spencer on that occasion, the son of Starspangledbanner again travelled with the same zest he was showing as a juvenile, but the door was closed on him soon after passing the two-furlong marker and he had no chance from off the pace thereafter.
He stayed on quite well close home, though, and overall you’d have to conclude it was a considerable step up on the summer spin when looking short of fitness (Flying Five replay below).
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There’s a chance trainer Fozzy Stack has had the back-end of the season in mind for this horse all year as he is best with plenty of ease in the ground and, given he’s one of very few in the possible line-up with the potential to improve quite considerably on what they’ve already done in 2022, he looks over-priced and worth a dart win-only.
Boy appeals as likely type for QEII
The closest I came to a second early Champions Day bet was Bayside Boy in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes as most bookmakers barely reacted to his Listed win in first-time blinkers at Sandown last week, which struck me as odd.
He’s always looked a quality, scopey sort who would improve with age and, despite that, was able to be placed a couple of times in Group One company as a juvenile. That included a length and three-quarter third to Arc favourite Luxembourg in the Vertem Futurity Trophy, so it’s no surprise the autumn promises to be his time of year again this time around.
The switch to soft ground and fitting of first-time blinkers sparked Roger Varian’s horse right back to his best after some lesser efforts on proper summer ground, and it wouldn’t be a shock if there was more improvement in the locker.
The trainer obviously has to weigh things up regarding this colt and stablemate New Drama, who made quite a promising belated return to action when second in Friday's Joel Stakes, but if he’s in the QEII on rain-softened ground with the blinkers retained then Bayside Boy is going to be of great interest.
He’s still 33/1 with plenty of firms at the time of writing but those running plans (could easily appear next at Longchamp over Arc weekend) are nagging away at me and are enough to put me off striking a bet right now.
Published at 1450 BST on 25/09/22
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