The Masters two-balls: Saturday round three preview and best golf bets
Scottie Scheffler is the man to beat at Augusta heading into a fascinating Masters weekend. Here's our preview of the third round.
Golf betting tips: The Masters round three
2pts e.w. Max Homa to win the Masters at 11/2 (General 1/4 1,2,3)
2pts Henley, Rahm and List to win their two-balls at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Reed and Fox to win their two-balls at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
The Masters is back on schedule after the field was kept on course during Friday's second round, despite the protestations of some players who felt that play might need to be paused. Here's where the deference to Augusta comes in handy: at any other tournament, I suspect some would've refused to continue, but here they sort of have to.
We're left with a fascinating leaderboard and still the prospect of a brilliant weekend, with Scottie Scheffler not quite able to take full control of the tournament in the way that has, to some, felt inevitable. When he misfired his approach to the 13th for the second day running, this time he paid the price with a bogey which in the end kept him from holding the lead on his own.
Scheffler has still hardened just slightly and at 11/8 will have his backers. Those who feel Bryson DeChambeau is an accident waiting to happen, or that MAX HOMA's past performances in majors are proof of something, will note that there's a three-shot gap back to the next major champion, Collin Morikawa having once again shown that he somehow can always get it right on these famed greens at Augusta.
Morikawa is into 16/1 from as big as 50s pre-tournament and as the only two-time major winner within striking distance is respected, but the one I want to be on is Homa, whose approach play and putting have been fantastic so far.
Homa's tie for 10th at last year's Open was significant, if not in terms of mounting a genuine challenge then certainly in his own mind. It's clear that he thinks he's worked out what he'd been doing wrong and if that's truly the case, he rates a bigger threat to Scheffler than DeChambeau for my money.
Not that I'd want to downplay the latter's chances. He's been really impressive and might never have swung it better than today, these new irons of his working wonders and his driving frankly awesome. I'd just be slightly wary of the fact that his approach play and his chipping are his two weaknesses. Typically they're essentials here and, under calmer but firming conditions, at some stage he'll need to rely on both.
So, it's Homa for me, last year's standout performer for the US Ryder Cup side and a player who has been extremely impressive in the mix for a number of years now. In fact were this a PGA Tour event you'd mark him down as one of a small group you'd like to be going into battle with against Scheffler, and I'm happy to trust him to rise to the occasion now he leads a major for the very first time.
Scheffler is of course going to be difficult to beat. All aspects of his game appear solid enough, with a midfield putting ranking all he really needs given how precise he is in all other departments. This course is the ultimate test of patience and decision-making, a match made in heaven, and anyone betting against him has to accept they'll be left to hope the odd important putt slides by.
Homa though looks the value at 11/2 and I'd also consider Nicolai Hojgaard at 28/1. He's quietly made his way into the penultimate pairing alongside Scheffler and while it won't be an easy task, the Dane beat world-class opponents to win the biggest title of his career in Dubai at the end of last season. He's special, of that I'm sure.
The reason he makes more appeal than he perhaps should is that Hojgaard is the standout player so far if you combine approach play and work around the greens. He has not in fact driven the ball anywhere near as well as he can but he is doing the things a Masters champion has to do and at 28/1, two off the lead, he's certainly a fair price.
Ludvig Aberg impressed until a stuttering finish to round two and is the other player quoted at less than 33/1, a reflection not of a thinned-out leaderboard, but of the presence of one man. Scheffler surely won't be going anywhere this weekend and could yet turn this into less of a spectacle than many of us would like.
Two-ball selections
My favourite bet among the two-balls is RUSSELL HENLEY in the second group out. He plays with Thorbjorn Olesen, who has relied heavily on being the leading putter so far.
Olesen has now made all four Augusta cuts and clearly has a level of comfort here, but that's also true of Henley, who is stronger in all other departments and will be delighted to have snuck through to the weekend after a birdie at the 18th.
Henley is a shade of odds-on for those who want a rock-solid single bet, but we can get him 3/1 by adding LUKE LIST and JON RAHM, who can live up to their banker prices.
List is a Georgia resident who played quite tidily in round two before a couple of mistakes late in the day, possibly a reflection of his desperation to make the weekend in an event he's not qualified for as often as he should have.
He's in with Jose-Maria Olazabal, who did fantastically well to make the cut at 58 but will surely suffer a difficult weekend. Pricing matches like these isn't easy, because we do have to consider that Augusta could simply defeat the favourite on its own, but List should probably be shorter than the 1/2 offered in places.
Likewise Rahm, whose mood improved for birdies at the 15th and 16th holes, a classy demonstration of why cuts matter not just to fans, but to professionals. His defence hasn't gone well, but there was a significant victory to be had on Friday night and he can now relax.
Grayson Murray scuppered our Friday bet but can be opposed again given the form he's been showing lately. He's already snapped one club this week and I expect him to struggle alongside a genuine golfing powerhouse like Rahm.
Later on, it's surely time to start opposing Danny Willett, who has exceeded all expectations on his return from surgery. He's playing with RYAN FOX, enjoying his second Masters visit even more than he did his solid debut.
Willett closed out round two with a triple-bogey and that may be a portent of what's to come. Fox meanwhile putted badly but still outscored him on Friday and the gap between them should only widen, with evens looking the bet of the night.
The second selection, also at evens with Paddy Power and Betfair, is PATRICK REED. He's once again dazzled with his short-game and surely ought to be a 4/6 shot against Adam Schenk, based on their overall profiles including their respective pre-tournament odds.
Schenk is very solid and has done everything to a good standard, but a firm Augusta weekend will bring Reed's experience to the fore and one way or another he's overpriced. It's been a tough week so far, but betting good prices gets you there in the end.
Posted at 0900 BST on 13/04/24
The Masters: More Sporting Life content
- Masters statistics and in-play betting guide
- Player-by-player guide to the entire field
- Augusta National: Hole-by-hole course guide
- The Masters: Five must-see moments
- Tiger Woods: Magic Masters moments
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