We have five selections for the PGA Tour Q-School final, which begins on Thursday in Florida.
Golf betting tips: Qualifying School
1pt e.w. Justin Suh at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Tyler Duncan at 66/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Brandon Wu at 75/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Roberto Diaz at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,6)
1pt e.w. Hayden Buckley at 125/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
There's little doubt that former amateur star Takumi Kanaya is good enough to compete on the PGA Tour, the trouble is he has to make it there first. Chances to do so are limited: he can for instance try to earn sufficient points via invites, he can follow a pathway such as the DP World Tour or the Korn Ferry Tour, he can simply win the ZOZO Championship. Or he can get one of just five cards available at Qualifying School.
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Should he do so, the challenge would then only really begin when he goes about trying to survive on such a lowly category. None of the five who earned status last year, the return of Qualifying School in this form, kept hold of it for 2025. Only one of them, Hayden Springer, got close – he's unfortunate as it seems unlikely that two players from the top 125 will join LIV and therefore bump him back inside the cut-off.
For now, Springer and Kanaya are here to do what they can over four rounds in Florida. It is a devilishly difficult assignment in a large field and while Kanaya has been playing to a high level out in Japan, this is oh so very different. DataGolf make him and John Keefer borderline top-100 players but ability alone isn't enough: you need grit, and in what's a one-week shootout, you need a bit of luck, too.
Harrison Endycott dominated last year and I would tend to favour those, like him, who have just come up short on the PGA Tour. My view is that however badly a player might struggle at that level, it is by some way the strongest tour in world golf and can make things appear worse than they are. No wonder so many who drop in grade are able to capitalise; to show that while their results might have been poor, they have not necessarily been all that far away.
Adrien Dumont de Chassart certainly hasn't and along with Pierceson Coody, Kanaya and Keefer, brings real potential to the top of the market. My preference though is for a few more speculative goes at this and I'll kick off with JUSTIN SUH at 40/1 and bigger.
Suh was the best player on the Korn Ferry Tour a couple of years ago and went on to contend for some big titles as a PGA Tour rookie. None of this was unexpected as he'd been a high-class amateur. It seemed a matter of time.
His second season has been a bit of a disaster, though, with just two top-20s in 29 starts and his best performance arguably 22nd way back in February given that it came in a strong Phoenix Open. It took until July for those two top-20s to arrive in back-to-back events, neither of them deep, and they proved to be a false dawn.
Clearly, he'll need to do better but having made eight of his last 12 cuts there have been signs of life and it's encouraging to see that his short-game has been improving. So has his approach play at times and with driver historically a strength, maybe he's one of those who will go on to prove that he's been closer than he looks.
Two top-six finishes in Florida last season bode well, one of them here at Sawgrass on the iconic course next door, and so does the fact that he's generally accurate off the tee. Back when Dye's Valley hosted a Korn Ferry Tour event (two of the four rounds will be there this week), accuracy seemed key given that Zac Blair was once second before Emiliano Grillo beat Chez Reavie.
With Satoshi Kodaira, Doc Redman and Kramer Hickok all T10 or better in this event last year I'm happy to suggest that fairways will be vital in a pressure-packed tournament held across two short par-70s. Suh is worth the benefit of the doubt with conditions to suit.
Some of those names mentioned suggest that we ought to consider form at River Highlands, another short, Pete Dye design. Reavie is a past champion there, Hickok lost a marathon play-off, Kodaira once opened with a round of 63, Redman closed with one for 11th, and Blair was runner-up to Keegan Bradley last summer.
That leads to Reavie and Seung-yul Noh (also a Dye winner in Louisiana), but also to TYLER DUNCAN and Hank Lebioda at bigger prices.
Duncan is about as accurate as they come and with top-30 finishes in two of his last five PGA Tour starts, he's produced some good golf lately. In fact it's a bit of a surprise he's here given that it's just a year since he finished third behind Ludvig Aberg in the RSM Classic.
Duncan's sole PGA Tour win came in that event, held on two short courses, and his River Highlands record is rock-solid with five cuts made in six. It's not as flashy as Lebioda's, the left-hander having been fifth there once, but Duncan has a touch of class in this sort of company and could've won the Honda Classic here in Florida last year.
Lebioda is from Florida so enjoys that advantage and having been thereabouts at halfway in a couple of Korn Ferry Tour starts before a strong closing 54 holes at Second Stage, improvement isn't out of the question. He should be sharp after that event here in Florida a week ago and it doesn't hurt that conditions were difficult.
Buck up your ideas
Ryan Blaum is another with that River Highlands angle covered and he's a past champion in the mini-tour Pete Dye Classic, which I'd have to presume was played on a Pete Dye course. Also from Florida, he has top-20s at Bay Hill and Copperhead, as well as in this last year, so is one veteran you could give a chance to at 200/1 in a place.
Again though I'm keener on those who've been operating at a higher level and will chance HAYDEN BUCKLEY's putting.
One of the straightest drivers in this field, Buckley has gone close to winning on the PGA Tour including in a Signature Event, and even has a couple of top-10s from this season despite it having been tough going for the most part.
He has really struggled on the greens but the rest of his game appears to be in better shape so as a former winner in Florida, with courses which would appear made for him, three-figure prices are big enough to overlook that putting concern.
A straight-hitting ball-striker who has putted badly for many years recently won the DP World Tour version and Buckley is a big price for one of his ability. It's not long since he was going off much shorter in much, much better company.
Like Suh, BRANDON WU was meant to be too good for this kind of thing and when he won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, as Suh went on to do, the sky appeared to be the limit.
He wasn't far off winning at Pebble Beach last year, nor in Mexico behind Jon Rahm, so clearly has the ability and 30-23-49 is a decent form line from his final three starts, as his valiant attempt to secure conditional status came up just shy in the end.
Wu is a short hitter who couldn't afford his accuracy stats to dip as they have, but he's still straighter than most and while the rest of his game looks just about bang average in PGA Tour terms, he's always been one who can light up the greens.
This sort of test should suit a player who is good in the wind and he's probably my favourite bet here. You could certainly make a case for him being a good bit shorter, anyway, with a Sawgrass top-20 another small positive.
Tyson Alexander is one of the best putters in the field, hails from Florida and has been playing a bit better lately, so he's another class-dropper with half a chance in this wide-open event. So is Austin Smotherman, who ranked 20th in strokes-gained approach on the PGA Tour last season, which rather sets him apart in a field like this one.
Smotherman has course form at Dye's Valley and a generally strong record in Florida, plus a PGA Tour top-10 from September, and his Korn Ferry Tour win came on a short par 70 in Tennessee. He's respected at 50s and would've been the sixth selection at just a slightly bigger price.
Mercy for the Diaz backers
I'll end instead with ROBERTO DIAZ who, unlike the above quartet, isn't dropping down in grade.
The Mexican though brings some of the most consistent Korn Ferry Tour form to the table, having missed just two cuts in his last 12 starts at that level. He also was one of the stronger performers at the Tour Championship, which was held at another Dye-designed course.
That interests me as his best PGA Tour effort so far came at the aforementioned River Highlands and he was also 10th here last year. At college, his home course was designed by Dye's son so there are just enough hints that Diaz could really enjoy their shared characteristics.
At 10th in driving accuracy for the season he has that base covered too and the only negative I have is that he played in Saudi Arabia last week, which you could call a curious decision. Perhaps missing the cut without playing too badly was the ideal outcome in the circumstances and I'll take my chances at 80/1 and upwards.
In conclusion, while I hope some young guns with big potential earn a crack at the PGA Tour, Kanaya one of them, and would be glad to see Joseph Bramlett return, this looks a tournament for speculation. It might also be one for a bit of experience.
Posted at 1400 GMT on 09/12/24
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