US Open golf betting tips: Third-round preview, Saturday June 19
Bryson DeChambeau can make his move on Saturday at the US Open, where pre-tournament favourite Jon Rahm remains the one they all have to beat.
Golf betting tips: US Open round three
2pts Paul Casey to beat Jordan Spieth at 6/4 (General)
3pts Bryson DeChambeau to be the top former winner at 9/4 (William Hill)
To be a professional golfer is to be very good at focusing on yourself. This is a soloists sport, for the most part, and anyone who spends time thinking about how someone else is doing is likely to suffer. But there can be little doubt that while Jon Rahm battled his way to the sort of round which makes a US Open champion, the performances of other big names on Friday underlined his credentials as the man to beat heading into the weekend.
In the morning, Rory McIlroy went missing for long enough to render his late rally insufficient. He seemed pleased enough with how he played, but the bottom line is he's given Rahm four, and the leaders six, heading into what should be a difficult weekend at Torrey Pines. Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Tyrrell Hatton, Matt Fitzpatrick and Paul Casey also failed to build on strong starts, but it was Brooks Koepka's performance late in the day which shaped the market and left Rahm clear at the top of it.
He wouldn't admit to it, but the Spaniard must surely have been pleased that the big moves came from Bubba Watson and Mackenzie Hughes, and that Richard Bland and Russell Henley share the lead. Bland, who led the field in putting in round two and is second for the week, is into 33/1 from 500/1 to follow up last month's British Masters win and, more than that, go down in history as one of the most surprising major champions there has ever been.
Perhaps we shouldn't be that surprised. After all, one of the most straightforward formulas in majors has always been to focus on recent winners, a path which would've led to the likes of Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer. Then again, he is the only such player in the top 20 (albeit an asterisk applies when it comes to Rahm), and it still seems a little fanciful to imagine him pulling this off. In fact, the idea that Bland remains in touch going into Sunday is difficult enough to embrace.
Rahm, however, has done everything so far to suggest that he is about to go and put himself in position to win this, and at 7/2, for the first time all week I'm seriously tempted to put him up. There are still unknowns surrounding just how he will respond should he play in the final group on Sunday, something he's yet to do in a major, but Torrey Pines clearly provides a level of comfort which will at least help to offset a uniquely pressurised situation. I suspect he's going to be hard to beat.
From one behind him, Xander Schauffele won't go far and of those on level-par, Bryson DeChambeau made a nice move and can press on up the leaderboard. In fact it wouldn't be a major surprise were DeChambeau to produce one of the best rounds today and put himself forward as the chief threat to Rahm, and with Matt Wolff and Bubba Watson on-side antepost, I'm happy enough to stick for now.
Wolff is a shade bigger than I expected him to be both in the outright market and to beat Louis Oosthuizen. It's only the latter's major consistency which is off-putting and enough to look further down the coupon, where I'm in the curious position of both fancying Harris English to beat Branden Grace, but having expected to see him a marginal underdog, rather than marginal favourite.
Case for the underdog as best two-ball bet
All of which leaves PAUL CASEY to beat Jordan Spieth as the best two-ball bet at 6/4 (1605 BST).
Spieth did really well to rally and make the cut, his straightforward birdie at the 18th hole enough to do so on the number. Everything was better than it had been on Thursday, and only seven players outscored him.
However, Torrey Pines remains a course which I do not believe plays to his strengths, and with anticipated tougher, firmer conditions ahead, he's not one I'm particularly hopeful for when it comes to making a weekend charge.
Casey's power and higher ball-flight could become even more useful and he's going to relish this high-profile group. Not one to dwell on the negatives of a poor second round, in truth he's played well bar the putter, and if he can take a few chances today then he can work his way back towards level par.
The bird has surely flown when it comes to hitting the frame but there's probably not as much between him and Spieth as the market suggests. Certainly there isn't on wider 2021 form, such as when Casey flew home at Kiawah Island, and he deserves a little more respect.
Casey is also considered in the top Englishman market, despite a nine-shot deficit. While I'm sure many of us will be hoping Bland sticks around, it would be no real surprise if he struggles this evening, and suddenly 8/13 quotes that he's the best of the English players will look very skinny.
Casey at 12/1 and Lee Westwood at 7/2 should be considered along with Robert MacIntyre in the top GB and Ireland equivalent, but while Bland is of course an unlikely winner, it's important to acknowledge that he's been one of the form players in Europe. This success he's enjoyed is built on strong foundations and such is his lead, that he can have a quiet weekend and still do enough.
DeChambeau v Koepka... who wins?
There is one market which looks completely wrong to my eye, which is an admittedly unsettling feeling, and that's top former winner where Koepka is too short.
Prior to the tournament, Koepka and DECHAMBEAU were the same price, DeChambeau a hair shorter if you took an industry average. Now, two rounds in, these rivals are on the same score, yet it's 7/5 Koepka versus 9/4 DeChambeau in this market, which looks off.
There is a concern that in McIlroy and Johnson in particular, there are threats further down the betting, but the top two in the market should be sharing favouritism and for as long as they are not, backing DeChambeau has to be the advice.
As well as simply appearing to be overpriced, I am hopeful he will kick on today and would consider him a bigger threat than Koepka, for all that it's Rahm who looks the most likely champion and by quite some way.
Posted at 0745 BST on 19/06/21
Click here for Ben Coley's tipping record
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