The Farmers Insurance Open begins on Wednesday at Torrey Pines, where the field is split between two courses. Ben Coley has four three-ball selections.
Golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open
1pt trebles on Ghim (11/8), Spaun (11/8), Rodgers (11/8) and Fishburn (6/5)
1pt four-fold on the above four players at 28/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
- Please note: This tournament begins on Wednesday
The Farmers Insurance Open begins on Wednesday and, from a selfish perspective, that's excellent. Saturday night equals work anyway, so I might as well be watching the golf while I'm at it. Plus, the early start means tee-times are released on Monday and with my deadline for previews 5pm Tuesday, there's just enough time to squeeze in a look.
Were I to choose a tournament to move a day forward in the week it might well be this one, because the contrast between the shorter, easier North Course and the tougher, beefier South Course isn't really factored into prices. Players are graded in the usual way and their tournament form plays a part, but there's no accounting for North versus South and what is quite a stark contrast.
Around the North, just about anyone could put together a score with an eagle here, a few putts there. At the South, doing so is difficult and you'll have to putt the lights out if you're not doing lots of other things well. Above all else, this is a monster layout with just two holes you'd call short (relative to par), both on the front-nine. The par-fives are no picnic, either, and there's a very clear profile to look for.
Ghim to beat Whaley and Montgomery (1701 GMT)
Here's a case in point. Around the North, taking on Vince Whaley and Taylor Montgomery, two of the best putters on the PGA Tour, would be much riskier, but the prices would be the same.
Around the South, I'm more than willing to oppose Whaley, who has started the year slowly. His record in this event reads MC-MC-MC-MC and he's shot rounds of 76, 77 and 81 around the host venue. At the North, he's broken 70 three times in four but here on its more iconic sister layout, he can't get close to doing so.
Montgomery does have a decent Torrey Pines record and the fact he hits it far enough is part of that. However, his ball-striking numbers throughout 2024 were the worst on the PGA Tour and while there have been small steps in the right direction lately, I strongly suspect we'll see enough of those destructive misses to all but guarantee a high score.
And then we come to DOUG GHIM. I couldn't say he's the ideal opponent in every sense as he isn't the longest, but in terms of consistency and finding fairways and greens in the required number, he's metronomic; the range of possibilities is much narrower with him than it is the others. That's a pretty good profile to be leaning on when the basis of the bet is perceived weakness among playing partners.
Having made four cuts in six at Torrey Pines and closed with a round of 66 last year, Ghim has the best profile by far. Like many, he does have one big number to his name in the event and therein lies the risk, but so often he's been par or better or perhaps a shot worse. That'll do.
Spaun to beat Lower and Silverman (1734)
These three have all played some decent golf over the past few months but Ben Silverman was disappointing in the Sony Open, then finished way down the field in the AmEx. Golf isn't always that simple but if you're shooting 72-72-74 around PGA West, it's unlikely you'll turn up at Torrey Pines and achieve much at all.
Silverman has made the cut on all three previous starts but always after a good first round at the North Course. That he's finished 67th, 62nd and 56th tells you that the South Course has his number and, with a different draw this time, he may well have a mountain to climb come Thursday's second round.
Justin Lower, with three top-fives in his last five starts, isn't so easy to oppose. However, all three came either on short courses or under low-scoring conditions and here, at Torrey Pines, he's massively up against it. He made the cut on the number last year but had missed it on both previous visits and while he could shoot something respectable given the state of his game, anything better seems unlikely.
JJ SPAUN on the other hand not only also arrives at the top of his game, but has a previous top-10 finish here. The Californian has broken par at the South Course eight times previously and while not so good in his last two visits, his form lately suggests he ought to play well. He's a better ball-striker than Lower so again, the South is the course to target.
Rodgers to beat Bridgeman and Schmid (1818)
From memory it was PATRICK RODGERS who cost us a day one treble last year before ending the week inside the top 10. While infuriating at the time, it's clear he's very comfortable around Torrey Pines, North and South, and so he should be having been such a successful college prospect here in California.
Long off the tee and with form also at Riviera and Silverado, Rodgers could threaten this week and I certainly wouldn't be putt off by a seemingly slow start to the season. He's generally struggled in both the Sony and the AmEx and I daresay uses those two tournaments to prime himself for this far more suitable one.
He's in with Matti Schmid and Jacob Bridgeman and the latter, 70th on debut, relies too much on his short-game for my liking. Schmid meanwhile has gone MC-MC-MC at Torrey Pines and his scoring average of 74.33 includes two spins around the North. Across those three visits, not once has he been close to making the cut, last year's T118 his best effort yet.
The German in theory has the power-packed game you'd want, but after failing to build on strong starts in the Sony (68-72, MC) and the AmEx (64-73-75, MC), this doesn't exactly come at a good time.
Fishburn to beat Kim and Gutschewski (1818)
Famous last words perhaps but PATRICK FISHBURN is my favourite among four selections, that's despite a missed cut here on debut. Context is again key as he struck the ball really well at the South Course and shot a solid 72 because of a poor day on and around the greens, at a time when he was struggling badly. His 73 at the North Course was really the issue.
Chan Kim has played the South Course three times so far and his scores read 76, 76, 77. Granted, last year's round was mostly to do with an unruly putter but that club has been a problem lately and was also hopeless here in the US Open, so he has one obvious problem to deal with. His form has been poor since a strong spring and summer last year and he's without a finish of note since August.
Scott Gutschewski meanwhile is an out-of-sorts 48-year-old who has missed the cut five times in six starts at Torrey Pines. I'd suggest Fishburn is more likely to beat himself than be beaten by him.
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Posted at 1650 GMT on 21/01/25
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