Norway vs England Paddy Power Sign Up Offer World Cup 2026 Quarter-Final – 40/1 England to Reach Semis

Match Overview

Fixture: Norway vs England
Competition: World Cup 2026 Quarter-Final
Venue: Miami
Date: Saturday 11 July 2026
Kick-off: 22:00 BST
TV: ITV1
Offer: Paddy Power – 40/1 on England to qualify for the semi-finals (new customers)

The Paddy Power Sign Up Offer lands on a marquee night in Miami, as England meet Norway in the World Cup 2026 quarter-finals. England arrive off the back of a memorable win over Mexico at the Azteca, while Norway have reached this stage for the first time in 28 years after knocking out Brazil. With England strong favourites to progress, Paddy Power's 40/1 on England to qualify for the semi-finals is a notable welcome offer for new customers, at the time of writing.

The Occasion: England's Battle for a Second Star

This is the "Bjørge Lillelien derby" - a fixture loaded with history since Norway's famous 1981 win prompted that iconic "your boys took a hell of a beating" commentary. Norway arrive in Miami full of belief having conquered Brazil in the round of 16, and the Viking roar has been one of the soundtracks of the tournament.

England, meanwhile, produced one of their great World Cup nights at the Azteca against Mexico, looking like a unit battling together in the face of adversity. Thomas Tuchel has repeatedly stated this is the stage where we would begin to see the best of this group, and so far his public predictions about how the tournament would unfold have proven accurate. The approach has almost resembled an FA Cup campaign: build a side suited to facing high-quality nations, and accept the earlier rounds may be a grind.

Norway's Rise - But a Sterner Test Awaits

Norway have done superbly to reach their first World Cup quarter-final, and their first major tournament since Euro 2000. Much of the focus falls on Erling Haaland, whose heroics clinched the win over Brazil - though that result required a fair slice of luck and outstanding goalkeeping from Ørjan Nyland against a Brazil side that is arguably some way short of its historic peak.

There are reasons for caution around Norway against stronger opposition. Recent evidence includes:

• A 4-1 defeat to France in their final group game (albeit after 10 changes)

• A 5-1 loss to Austria in the 2024/25 Nations League

• Two defeats to Spain in Euro 2024 qualifying without scoring, including a 3-0 loss in Malaga

Their route to the World Cup also came through a favourable qualifying group alongside a weakened Italy, Estonia, Israel and Moldova, meaning they were rarely properly tested.

Where the Game Could Be Decided

While the headline match-up is Harry Kane against Erling Haaland, this tie could well be settled by set-pieces. Both sides are similarly built in terms of aerial ability and chances created - and conceded - from corners and free-kicks.

Norway's defence looks their clear weakness. They have:

• Conceded nine goals from an xGA of 8.1 - a total only Egypt, Iraq, Curacao and Qatar can better among all sides

• Failed to keep a single clean sheet in the tournament - not even against Iraq

• Topped the remaining quarter-finalists for shots conceded from set-pieces (17) and xGA from dead-balls (1.46)

England are not without their own defensive questions - only two clean sheets so far, with both Croatia and Mexico scoring twice - but Tuchel's side should have the tools to expose Norway's frailties.

Best Bets and Player Angles

Elliot Anderson 2+ total shots

Rather than the obvious set-piece candidates, Anderson looks an interesting angle for 2+ total shots (23/10, Coral, Ladbrokes at the time of writing). He plays two roles at England corners: staying on the edge of the box to pounce on clearances, and acting as a deeper "free man" - an angle highlighted against Ghana, where the big hitters occupied one area and Anderson was left space to shoot. When the ball falls to him in open play within range, he is not afraid to try his luck.

England to win in 90 minutes

With Tuchel's side well-equipped to expose Norway's defensive weaknesses, England to win in 90 minutes rates strongly at 17/20 (general). Given Norway tend to find the net, England to win and both teams to score also appeals at 13/5 (bet365) - Norway are yet to keep any opponent out.

Bukayo Saka 1+ assists

Saka is fancied to create again at 19/5 for 1+ assists (Coral, Ladbrokes). Despite a disrupted tournament, he has delivered at key moments - setting up Rashford against Croatia, curling in a corner for Bellingham against Panama, and laying on Bellingham's opener at the Azteca. Only Norway's Andreas Schjelderup (1.5) is averaging higher than Saka's 1.4 assists per 90 among players still in the tournament.

Nico O'Reilly goal threat

O'Reilly's attacking output may hinge on his role. Against Mexico he played a more traditional left-back position rather than the full-back/number 10 hybrid seen earlier in the summer, and he is a yellow card away from a potential semi-final suspension. That casts some doubt, but if Tuchel restores his attacking freedom, his threat from corners and free-kicks makes him a genuine candidate to score. The tips advised are O'Reilly to score anytime (15/2, bet365), to score 2+ goals (125/1, bet365, BetVictor) and to score a header (20/1, Betfred).

All prices quoted are correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

Why the 40/1 Offer Stands Out

England enter this quarter-final as strong favourites to progress, with the balance of form, squad depth and Norway's defensive vulnerabilities all pointing towards the Three Lions advancing. Against that backdrop, Paddy Power's 40/1 on England to qualify for the semi-finals offers new customers a considerable price on an outcome that aligns with the likely flow of the tie.

Final Verdict

Norway have enjoyed a remarkable run and carry genuine threat through Haaland, but England represent a step up in class from anything they have faced. Tuchel's side should have the control, quality and set-piece presence to see this through.

The tipsters' score predictions across the board favour England: Norway 0-2, Norway 1-3 and Norway 2-4. Expect goals, and expect England to progress.

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