Football betting tips: World Cup
1.5pts Draw after 90 mins in France vs Spain at 12/5 (Betfred)
1.5pts Draw after 90 mins in England vs Argentina at 21/10 (Betfred)
0.5pt Draws in both semi-finals at 19/2 (Betfred)
1pt France vs Spain to be decided after penalties at 9/2 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt England vs Argentina to be decided after penalties at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Penalty shootouts in both semi-finals at 27/1 (bet365)
It was hard to watch Belgium goalkeeper Senne Lammens being consoled by his team-mates on Friday.
His error, just 17 minutes into a World Cup debut triggered by an injury to Thibaut Courtois on his 115th (and likely final) international appearance, gifted Spain's Mikel Merino an 88th-minute winner in a match destined to end 1-1.
MIKEL MERINO GIVES SPAIN THE LEAD!
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) July 10, 2026
It's a costly mistake from Senne Lammens who replaced the injured Thibaut Courtois 😬 pic.twitter.com/l2rOjjSudg
Not only was it a gut punch to a Belgium team that had dealt manfully with the loss of captain Youri Tielemans in the warm-up, but to anyone who had backed the quarter-finals Draw Trixie at 54/1.
The remaining two last-eight ties went beyond the 90, with Argentina's extra-time win over Switzerland looking like a very good runner to go the distance and be settled by spot-kicks until a moment of madness from Swiss striker Breel Embolo saw him pick up a second yellow card for simulation.
Even then, the holders needed the brilliance of Julian Alvarez in the 112th minute when they appeared to be running out of ideas.
What a way to win it 🔥
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) July 12, 2026
Julian Alvarez beautifully fires Argentina into the lead in extra time... pic.twitter.com/gjwI0YYPV9
Having gone with this theory in the quarters, I'll stick with it again.
We can look at history for an indication of how likely it is these matches will need end in a DRAW AFTER 90 MINUTES, with seven of 20 (35%) doing so since 1982, and five of those DECIDED AFTER PENALTIES, but with FIFA introducing "tennis style" seeding for this World Cup, we are in uncharted territory.
It is the first time in history the top-four ranked teams in the world have all reached the semi-finals, surely increasing the possibility of it being difficult to split them.
Backing both FRANCE VS SPAIN and ENGLAND VS ARGENTINA in both markets as SINGLES and DOUBLES to appropriate stakes is advised.
France are 13/10 favourites to win the first semi-final having breezed through the tournament to this point.
They are yet to be truly tested, though, and their much-heralded attack now face a Spain team who have conceded only one goal, allowing just 0.3 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
England and Argentina have both battled their way to this stage, needing to fight back and use extra time to keep their hopes alive. While the market favours the Three Lions, it's tough to oppose the holders - especially in 90 minutes.
Odds correct 11:45 BST (13/07/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Outright previews
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