Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Man City to struggle against Newcastle
Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) banked two correct scores and a correct result in his opening Super 6 column of the season.
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Round two predictions
- Liverpool 3-2 Bournemouth
- Wolves 1-3 Brighton
- Tottenham 2-2 Man Utd
- Man City 2-2 Newcastle
- Aston Villa 2-0 Everton
- West Ham 0-2 Chelsea
A total of 12 points last week was a steady start, landing the 4-1 in Brighton vs Luton and 2-2 between Brentford and Spurs - 14/1 and 10/1 scorelines!
Early season is always tough to gauge, with Chelsea a prime example during their entertaining draw with Liverpool. It looks as though Mauricio Pochettino has developed them more quickly than most (me included) expected.
But it's important not to get too carried by one result, with the same being the case following Newcastle's 5-1 thrashing of Aston Villa.
That performance was the highlight of my week as I was taking a bit of flak for being so pro-Newcastle and anti-Villa pre-season, although even I didn't see them scoring five!
They should be full of confidence for a trip to The Etihad though. Which is where we start.
Champs to be held
I really did wrestle with this one as I'm conscious of reading too much into one performance from Eddie Howe's men.
Having watched MANCHESTER CITY in the UEFA Super Cup, I think NEWCASTLE can cause their hosts problems on Saturday night.
City were open in transition and if Sevilla had the quality of Newcastle in forward areas they would have probably won the game comfortably.
These sides were the two best according to underlying numbers last season, with City posting a +1.32 xGD per game and Newcastle +0.92.
They shared a thrilling 3-3 draw early in the campaign before a narrow City win at The Etihad. There wasn't an awful lot between them when they met.
Newcastle's high-press has the capability to disrupt City and help them force turnovers that lead to chances.
Howe's side were cautious when travelling to the big boys last season, but I expect a more full-throttle approach given they will feel they belong in that bracket.
City will be tough to stop completely, but I can see the Magpies taking something.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Carnage at Spurs
Ange-ball has arrived and I love it.
Pure attack-minded chaos has graced TOTTENHAM, something we haven't seen since the Pochettino days, and boy does it make them an easier watch.
Playing on the front foot saw them carve out plenty of good scoring chances at Brentford with some slick passages of play and a level of territorial dominance we aren't used to.
They were, though, typically shoddy defensively, shipping 1.91 xGA, with those opportunities coming in transition and 'against the run of the play' according to the match momentum chart.
That sounds like a dream for Erik ten Hag's MANCHESTER UNITED side, should they opt to take a more counter attack-based approach on Saturday.
The Red Devils looked defensively poor themselves against Wolves on Monday, and were fortunate to win that game, as they struggled to gel a midfield of Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes and Mason Mount.
If the same trio take the field on Saturday without added instruction, Tottenham will create an abundance of chances.
But as is always the case given their defensive personnel and the risks of Ange-ball, United will create plenty themselves leading to an end-to-end cracker.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-2 Man United (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Goal crazy at 3pm
The results of the 3pm games in this round of Super 6 were never in doubt in my mind, it was just the scorelines I struggled to pin down.
I do expect LIVERPOOL to beat BOURNEMOUTH at Anfield, but I think the Cherries can make life exceptionally tough for the Reds.
Jurgen Klopp's men didn't look great after the first half-hour at Stamford Bridge, being thoroughly outplayed by an encouragingly together Chelsea team.
It was made plainly obvious that Liverpool need a holding midfielder as the Blues carved them open on numerous occasions, and interestingly Chelsea's press forced 36 high turnovers which also contributed to the Reds having issues.
Bournemouth are a now a high-pressing team under Andoni Iraola, and forced 34 high turnovers against a direct West Ham team - which takes some doing - suggesting that they could perhaps have the same impact as Chelsea in causing Liverpool issues.
But, the Reds at Anfield are a different proposition.
They have lost just seven of their last 114 Premier League home games, winning 85, a run that spans over six seasons.
Add in the fact they have averaged 2.31 xGF per game over that lengthy period, and the hosts will carve out enough opportunities to edge a high-scoring thriller.
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Brilliant Brighton
WOLVES were good in defeat at Old Trafford, but I think them impressing was more down to United being bad. BRIGHTON won't afford them the same luxury on Saturday.
Roberto De Zerbi's side are a free-flowing machine, a machine in which players are interchangeable and replaceable, so they never suffer after the departure of key stars.
They were at their attacking best against Luton last weekend, and really did use their left side an awful lot, which spells trouble for Wolves.
Brighton should generate plenty of opportunities at Molineux, especially if Wolves are as attack-minded in their approach as they were on Monday. As is the way of the Seagulls though, they do give up opportunities.
De Zerbi's men have kept just nine clean sheets in his 33 games in charge.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-3 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Villa to bounce back
I didn't think ASTON VILLA were as bad as the scoreline suggested last weekend at St. James' Park, with the game a close one until the hosts went 3-1 up, after which it became chaotic.
We can fully expect a bounce-back reaction from Unai Emery's side at Villa Park, a place they turned into a fortress after his appointment by winning nine of 13, including all of their last seven.
In those seven games they averaged an exceptional 1.84 xGF and 0.54 xGA per game, underlying numbers of a top four team.
Sean Dyche “not a big believer in xG”.
— Sporting Life Football (@InfogolApp) August 13, 2023
Or is he…🤔
🔵 Everton 0-1 Fulham
xG: 2.73-1.50#Everton #EFC pic.twitter.com/nlCR7gwEBG
They host an EVERTON side who struggle to put the ball in the net at the best of times, and especially when coming up against a strong defence.
I'm happy to put the 5-1 loss to one side and view it as an aberration rather than the norm.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Persistant Poch progress
Mauricio Pochettino had his CHELSEA team ready and raring to go last weekend, I thought there would be a lot of teething issues but there were very few.
The Blues dominated for much of the game, and created the better chances (xG: CHE 1.93 - 1.30 LIV), something I find highly impressive given the new faces in the dugout and in the team room, and the quality of opposition they faced.
WEST HAM earned a decent draw at Bournemouth last weekend, but their issues in forward areas remain.
They just don't fill me with confidence that they can score every week, and if Chelsea could keep Liverpool *that* quiet then they shouldn't have any issues with the Hammers.
An injury to Reece James is the only negative surrounding the Blues, but in Malo Gusto they have a solid replacement, and they can introduce Moises Caicedo or Romeo Lavia this weekend.
Score prediction: West Ham 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
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