Branching out from his Monday analysis column, The Kelly Criterion, Liam Kelly picks out a value bet of interest for the Premier League weekend.
Despite being impeccable in this area against Manchester United on Monday night, defending is not known as Nélson Semedo’s strong suit.
I’m happy to give Wolves’ right-back his flowers for an excellent performance at Old Trafford, but United were dysfunctional as an attacking unit and Brighton are usually anything but, especially on Semedo’s side.
Indeed, Brighton’s left flank can pose a problem for almost every Premier League team and returned to action with an energetic display in their season-opening 4-1 win.
Roberto De Zerbi’s team were extremely active on the left against Luton, attacking that flank 49% of the time, with Pervis Estupiñán and Kaoru Mitoma looking as dangerous as ever and linking up well with new signings Mahmoud Dahoud and João Pedro.
Saturday afternoon promises to be a busy one for NÉLSON SEMEDO on that evidence, and, although some prices for tackle and foul totals are interesting, the standout 7/2 available with Sky Bet for him TO BE SHOWN A CARD against Brighton makes most appeal.
Semedo was involved in eight ground duels against United and it seldom goes as swimmingly as it did last time out.
Only 14 players committed more fouls than the Portuguese right-back in the Premier League last season, and only three players ended the campaign with more yellow cards than Semedo’s total of 11.
Odds correct at 1800 BST (17/08/23)
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