Portugal v Switzerland tips: World Cup 2022 best bets, predictions and preview
Portugal have a tough looking Round of 16 tie against Switzerland on Tuesday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting a best bet.
Football betting tips: Portugal v Switzerland
1.5pts Switzerland or Draw Double Chance at 19/20 (William Hill)
1.5pts Half-time result DRAW at 21/20 (bet365)
I'll be honest, I wasn't high on Portugal's chances pre-tournament, and their performances at Qatar have done little to persuade me otherwise.
My intention was always to oppose them against the first decent team they face in the knockout rounds, and that's exactly what I plan to do with Switzerland here, with the first selection of this preview being SWITZERLAND OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE, which seems on the big side.
From an underlying data perspective, Fernando Santos's men have been underwhelming to say the least.
They have averaged just 1.26 non-penalty xGF per game in the group stage, while allowing 1.46 non-penalty xGA per game. Those figures aren't good at all.
All three teams they faced in the group stages had no issue creating chances against them, while their attacking output was staggeringly low given the talent at their disposal.
Switzerland are fresh off a thoroughly deserved win in a high-stakes game against Serbia (xG: SRB 1.35 - 3.61 SUI), a team who beat Portugal twice in World Cup qualifying to pip them to top spot, and they again look like a dangerous opponent.
It wasn't long ago that they cause a major shock to knock France out at this stage of Euro 2020 before taking Spain to penalties in their quarter-final, so they are an experienced tournament team.
At the 2022 World Cup, the Swiss have done what I expected them to do; beat both Cameroon and Serbia and play Brazil extremely close.
Pre-tournament favourites Brazil really struggled to break down Murat Yakin's side, winning 1-0 thanks to a late Casemiro strike, and I don't think this Portugal team are close to the levels of Brazil.
Switzerland will fancy their chances of causing what would be an upset here. They have shown just how capable they are in attack (1.99 xGF per game) and in defence, and by backing them to win or draw in 90 minutes we should get a good run for our money.
The second bet I like the look of follows on from the fact I think this could be a tight encounter, and the HALF-TIME DRAW has to have a cracking chance of landing.
Switzerland will likely concede possession and play hard-to-beat in the opening 45, with the onus being on Portugal to break them down.
What we have seen from the Portugal attack and the Switzerland defence suggests we could be in stalemate territory for quite a while, especially with the Portuguese unlikely to overcommit too early on in fear of the counter-attacking ability of the Swiss through Breel Embolo.
So, a cagey first half is chanced, and the scores being level at the break seems very realistic. Interestingly, this bet has landed in two of Portugal's three group games (both 0-0 at the break) and in all three of Switzerland's group games (two 0-0 at HT).
Portugal v Switzerland best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Switzerland or Draw Double Chance at 19/20 (William Hill)
- 1.5pts Half-time result DRAW at 21/20 (bet365)
Score prediction: Portugal 1-1 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (03/12/22)
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