Our team select their best bets for the final day of World Cup round of 16 action and Jake Osgathorpe is spying an upset in the late game.
1.5pts Switzerland or Draw Double Chance v Portugal at 19/20 (William Hill)
1pt Over 2.5 Goals in Morocco v Spain at 13/10 (BetUK, Unibet)
Selected tips only, for all selections read full previews
For this Round of 16 encounter, my attention is focused on a bet on OVER 2.5 GOALS.
Let’s break down this bet in terms of the price offered.
Firstly, the market-leading price of 13/10 offers a likelihood of 43.5% that the game will see three goals or more in 90 minutes. But if we consult Infogol’s modelling, the price majorly underestimates that probability – Infogol predictions put the chances of at least 2.5 goals being scored at 52%, leading me to believe that the price on offer is just too big.
I am backing Morocco, one of the World Cup’s most actively supported teams given geographical proximity and the availability of direct flights from Rabat – laid on specially with the event in mind – to continue their run and, if not directly upset Spain, at least outperform what is expected of them in the goal stakes.
Score prediction: Morocco 1-3 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1315 GMT (02/12/22)
I'll be honest, I wasn't high on Portugal's chances pre-tournament, and their performances at Qatar have done little to persuade me otherwise.
My intention was always to oppose them against the first decent team they face in the knockout rounds, and that's exactly what I plan to do with Switzerland here, with the first selection of this preview being SWITZERLAND OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE, which seems on the big side.
From an underlying data perspective, Fernando Santos's men have been underwhelming to say the least.
They have averaged just 1.26 non-penalty xGF per game in the group stage, while allowing 1.46 non-penalty xGA per game. Those figures aren't good at all.
Score prediction: Portugal 1-1 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1800 GMT (03/12/22)
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