Football betting tips: World Cup
1.5pts Harry Kane to score anytime at 13/8 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Kane to score 2+ goals at 10/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Kane to score a hat-trick at 60/1 (Paddy Power)
1pt Declan Rice 1+ assists at 11/2 (bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Nico O'Reilly to score anytime at 10/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt O'Reilly to score 2+ goals at 150/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt O'Reilly to score a header at 30/1 (Betfred)
No bets advised.
England made hard work of DR Congo but most importantly, unlike Germany and the Netherlands, they are in the round of 16.
They head to Mexico City for the first time since Diego Maradona delivered the Hand of God and then scored the Goal of the Century to lead Argentina to a World Cup quarter-final victory in 1986.
Despite the hype surrounding Mexico's advantage of high altitude, a home crowd, no travel and an imperious record of W70 D17 L2 in 89 competitive fixtures at the iconic Azteca Stadium, the Three Lions remain 4/6 favourites to qualify. Rightly so.
Only four of players in Mexico's 26-man squad play in Europe's top five leagues. They dominated a weak group. And their record at the Azteca is overblown.
England are the first top-10 FIFA ranked team to visit the stadium since 2003, with the USA and Costa Rica the only teams to be ranked inside the top 20 when they arrived for a competitive fixture in Mexico City.
It will be tough, there is no disputing that. But make no mistake, should Thomas Tuchel's men be knocked out this will be a shock - and a huge failure.
In terms of things he can control, Tuchel's biggest headache ahead of this match is who starts at right-back.
His decision to leave Trent Alexander-Arnold out of his squad continues to rear its ugly head, with Ezra Konsa becoming the fifth different player to play in that role in England's four World Cup fixtures when he slid over to fill the position vacated by a substituted DECLAN RICE.
The Arsenal midfielder-turned-emergency-right-back again limped off with back and hamstring pain after putting in an incredible shift against Congo, but Tuchel has continued to reassure us that it isn't a serious injury.
No matter what position Rice starts in against Mexico he will be vital both in terms of his all-round play and chance creation.
The 11/2 about him to provide 1+ ASSISTS looks too big for a player who drives forward in open play and takes most of England's set-pieces. At the time of writing no player to have played at least 250 minutes at the World Cup is averaging more than his 4.3 chances created per 90.
Elsewhere, it's not often that HARRY KANE is available to TO SCORE ANYTIME at 13/8 so when he is he should be backed to do so.
The general 6/4 is plenty big enough too, with some of the firms offering that price also covering extra-time as part of their terms.
Kane has scored five of England's eight goals so far, only failing to find the net in the goalless draw with Ghana, a match that saw him blast over what was arguably the best open-play chance he's had all tournament.
Call this wishful thinking on my part, I'm prepared to also have a small punt on KANE TO SCORE 2+ GOALS and A HAT-TRICK at 10/1 and 60/1.
He is in the form of his life and despite all of the supporter anxiety over England's last three performances, and the factors against them in Mexico City, this stage of the tournament should suit the team Tuchel has built - one that is moulded around its captain's strengths.
Kane has scored 2+ goals in four of his last six competitive matches, ending the club season with back-to-back hat-tricks for Bayern Munich.
He has scored multiple goals 21 times this season, 22 if you include last summer's Club World Cup, with five of those hat-tricks.
On top of all of this, it really has been a World Cup for goalscoring. After the opening 85 fixtures (three round-of-32 ties remain at the time of writing) a player has scored 2+ goals on a staggering 30 occasions, with three hat-tricks.
You'd think there would be a let-up in the knockout stage but there hasn't been, with four of the first 13 matches seeing a player score a brace.
Score prediction: Mexico 0-3 England
I seem to have confined myself to some sort of NICO O’REILLY England preview purgatory.
Unable to admit defeat, brazenly assured I will be vindicated, I am sorry but for the umpteenth time this summer I’ll be rewording the usual spiel about how this marauding full back is due a goal.
If you are new here, we’ve been backing England’s left back TO SCORE ANYTIME, 2+ GOALS and TO SCORE A HEADER since the beginning of the 2026 World Cup.
The logic is watertight, and the statistics are reassuring, but the finishing has left a lot to be desired.
For club and country, O’Reilly plays as a midfielder with the ball and a defender without it. He’s massive though, which makes him a set piece threat as well.
So, when I saw him at 6/1 to net in the Three Lions first game against Croatia I knew this was a stance I’d have to commit to all summer.
O’Reilly’s had at least one shot in every England game, 1.84 per 90, 0.31 shots on target per 90, 1.53 headed shots per 90 and an expected-goals (xG) of 0.32 per 90.
For context, only Kane (5 goals) and Jude Bellingham (2 goals), have racked up greater xG totals for their nation.
The same trio (Kane, Bellingham and our man O’Reilly) are also tied at the top of England’s charts for ‘big chances missed’.
Don’t dwell on that little kick in the teeth, it simply shows O’Reilly is getting into the right positions. Now we just need him to put it in the back of the net, and soon.
Score prediction: Mexico 1-4 England
There were a couple of angles I felt worth exploring for this one, although a few factors were behind my decision to NO BET the contest.
I strongly feel that England are a better side and as Joe has pointed out the Mexico record as the Azteca has been improved by their high quantity of games against far inferior opponents.
How the Three Lions cope with the physical element of the venue will be key to their chances of progression, but Tuchel will be happy with this tournament so far and the likelihood is he feels it's playing out as expected.
I was intrigued by England's potential for two or more cards yet I don't know who the referee is at the time of writing. I'm also not sure about going back in on my Anderson set-piece theory, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them run it this time out.
Given the amount of selections made by the other two, I'll sit this out.
Score prediction: Mexico 0-1 England
Odds correct 12:45 BST (3/7/26)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
Outright previews
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