Lionel Messi v Kylian Mbappe: World Cup final to be decided by superstars

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The combination of bleak winter weather and ethical concerns mean it has been a muted tournament dragged down by the weirdness into a collective ‘meh’, and it is therefore fitting that its final brings no great surprise – and fitting that its finalists are led by Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi, both of whom play for Qatar-owned Paris Saint Germain.

That is not to say the World Cup final will be dull. Lionel Scaloni and Didier Deschamps are tactical opposites, the former frequently shifting formation and strategy depending on the opposition and the latter sticking rigidly to a defensive approach.

But beyond that, there is enough in the Mbappe versus Messi duel – on the same flank – to excite even the most disengaged football supporter.

Either Messi will get the ending he deserves and confirm, once and for all, his status as the greatest footballer of all time, or Mbappe will collect his second winners’ medal at just 23 and move towards God-like status in France.

Expect a tight encounter

The outcome will most likely rest on a single moment of quality.

World Cup finals tend to be unbearably tense (prior to France’s 4-2 win over Croatia, four of the previous six went to extra time with an average of 1.5 goals per game) and Deschamps’ approach is likely to restrict things further. But we could get lucky.

After all, Argentina might just be lured into the trap of pressing high and dominating the ball, opening the game up to a series of counters and counter-counters run by the two most important players in world football.

Although that isn’t necessarily the pattern this will fall into. Scaloni has been the most active tactician in the tournament so far and he will need to pivot again on Sunday as he prepares to face the most infuriating of opponents.

France are ludicrously defensive by modern standards, parking the bus and refusing to engage until the opposition comes within 40 yards of goal, which has stumped nations uncomfortable holding so much of the ball.

That doesn’t quite apply to Argentina, whose methods have been more reactive up until now: against the Netherlands Scaloni matched their back three to neutralise the threat of Louis van Gaal’s overloads and against Croatia he moved to a very narrow 4-4-2 that successfully squeezed Zlatko Dalic’s midfield to provide the platform for a solid win.

It is this most recent system, what could be called a 4-2-2-2 in which Alex Mac Allister and Rodrigo de Paul float inside from their wide starting positions, that looks most logical, because the priority should be attacking France’s central midfield – something far too few opponents have attempted to do.

France weak in midfield

Morocco, for example, took a midfielder out of the starting line-up to move to a 5-4-1 in the semi-finals, only to rejig (too late) towards the end of the first half, when in fact they should have driven headfirst into this zone as Australia and Poland did.

Aurelien Tchouameni gave his performance of the tournament against Morocco but there are gaps in France’s two-man midfield whether it’s Adrian Rabiot or Youssouf Fofana alongside him, and so if Argentina use a narrow four they should be able to slide forward passes through this zone and into Messi.

On the flip side, France’s depth could simply crowd Messi and leave Argentina looking flat, and Sunday’s game may ultimately rest on how the overall territorial pattern plays out.

France will look to draw Argentina in, their defensive shell enveloping them like a Venus fly trap before Antoine Greizmann (outstanding as the link man between midfield and attack), Mbappe, and Ousmane Dembele counter attack at speed behind a paralysed and exposed Argentine shape.

They have done this to each and every opponent so far and, worryingly for Scaloni, Argentina might be particularly prone to being lured in by the game-plan.

Argentina's press could be undoing

Argentina rank fourth in Qatar for pressed sequences (72) and are second only to Spain for number of 10+ pass sequences (104), plus they are eighth for high turnovers (38) and have a mid-table PPDA (14.4).

This tells us they are relatively comfortable at pushing up and getting forward, and while they are happy to dig in during opposition phases of possession we can expect Argentina to press from goal kicks and try to pin France with occasional pressing traps.

Part of the lure is that it can make teams feel like they are playing well, encouraging them forward more and more, which is exactly what happened to Morocco. On the other hand it does mean France have to contend with waves of pressure; they were lucky to survive these in the semi-final and may not be so fortunate again.

This brings us on to the headliners - and a simple tactical battle that will underpin the World Cup final: Messi, floating and buzzing in the right-centre space and probing for gaps in the deep France shape, versus Mbappe sprinting away behind him on the same flank.

One moment of magic?

Argentina held a mere 39% possession against Croatia, reflecting their preference not to hog the ball; they may be left uncomfortable having to build slowly through a team, unhinging the dynamism we have seen in flashes and allowing France to capitalise in the transitions.

Certainly Mbappe will anticipate winning his dual with right-back Nahuel Molina, although there is arguably an equal chance of Messi weaving through the French defence via the chink in their armour: Theo Hernandez is very vulnerable defensively and receives almost no support from Mbappe.

Deschamps will have devised a plan to mark Messi out of the game. Scaloni will adapt his tactics to try to shut down the French counters before they get going.

That probably means we will be denied an end-to-end match down the Messi-Mbappe flank, and instead will have to make do with one moment of magic.

It will, no doubt, be one of those two geniuses who provide it.

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