The great fear for England - if, after the glorious and brutal triumph of the Mexico victory, any fear remains - is that Norway 2026 show an alarming similarity to Croatia 2018.
A solid team, tactically attuned, with one or two European stars elevating them to another level, Norway have the momentum and they have the story. In fact, the viral rowing schtick, the plucky outsider energy...they might even be Iceland 2016.
Either way England are the villain of the piece.
But the difference between the England of 2018 or 2016 and the England of today is huge.
Of that much we can be confident after another brilliant tactical victory by Thomas Tuchel earlier this week, when a backs-to-the-wall ten-man defence overcame the narrative certainty of a Mexico victory at the Azteca.
There is no real reason for this England side to be nervous anymore, and besides, there is the lingering possibility, though it isn’t fashionable to say it, that Norway aren’t really all that.
Brazil were pretty abject throughout this World Cup and ripe for beating. Narrow wins against Ivory Coast and Senegal do not offset a 4-1 thumping by France.
Is it really a Croatia/Iceland hybrid that England face? Or are they Denmark in the Euro 2020 semi-final, Ukraine in the 2018 World Cup quarter-final: the fans’ favourite navigating a decent run but ready to bow out at first contact with a strong nation like England?
That more hopeful interpretation holds up to tactical scrutiny. Kylian Mbappe hit the post after 20 seconds in the group stages and France hammered on the door consistently until going 1-0 up with just seven minutes gone.
In those early stages and beyond Didier Deschamps’ side repeatedly found space down both flanks, transitioning very effectively after winning the ball against a Norway team happy to push up and play each occasion as equals.
Norway might have ultimately scored a higher xG than France (1.7 to 1.5) and clearly the victors relied on Ousmane Dembele’s genius, but France only wobbled later in the match having dominated the opening hour.
This is very good news for England, who struggle against a low block but come into their own when the opponent opens up, as we saw in the 4-2 victory against Croatia in the first match. Their own stars, Jude Bellingham in particular, could be as influential as Dembele was.
Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka, both in form after Mexico, should be able to get at the Norway full-backs when England pinch possession in the middle third.
If Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson can do that consistently, Harry Kane should comfortably find space between the lines to get in possession and set the England wingers away.
Certainly the game will be won or lost in central midfield, same as it ever was for England, and here is where memories of the Croatia semi-final loom into view. It isn’t quite Modric-Kovacic-Rakitic, but Sander Berge and Patrick Berg have been quietly efficient, providing a workmanlike base for this direct Norway that evokes how Brentford can hustle and bustle their way to midfield domination in the Premier League.
With Martin Odegaard ahead of them and Erling Haaland lurking on the edge of a shaky-looking England back four, it is imperative that England are cautious in possession. Norway certainly will be, as we saw in the 2-1 victory over Brazil, when opportunities to counter-attack were repeatedly turned down in favour of keeping the ball and pushing Brazil back.
Nevertheless the danger is the sudden gear change, the moment Odegaard and Haaland can combine to catch Ezri Konsa and Marc Guehi cold.
If England control that by sitting off a little – if they are sharper in the transition than Brazil; bolder in the midfield tackle than Brazil’s pair of a half-dead Casemiro and nobody – then the superior quality of Tuchel’s side should shine through.
The only other danger is if Norway can take advantage of the injury crisis at right-back. On England’s left Nico O’Reilly, growing into the tournament, should know all about Oscar Bobb and shut that side down, but on the other wing the tricky Antonio Nusa will run straight at whomever steps in for the injured Jarell Quansah.
If it’s Reece James, as has been rumoured, then all that really stands in England’s way of the World Cup semi-final is holding their nerve, Tuchel included. Over-thinking Haaland – by bringing in Dan Burn, for example, as has been mooted - would be a mistake.
Norway have the weight of expectation and the narrative gods behind them, but frankly England have the quality, the knowhow, the experience, and the emerging self-esteem to rise above and secure their place in the last four.
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