European Championship Darts: Predictions, tips & odds as MVG chases glory for the fifth time in a row

Almost all of the biggest names in darts are back on ITV4 this week for the European Championship (Thursday, October 25-28) as Michael van Gerwen bids to win this major for the fifth year in a row.

I say 'almost all' because there is of course no Gary Anderson (or Raymond van Barneveld for that matter) in the 32-man field for the second year running due to his choice to opt out of the season's 13 European Tour events in a bid to stay as fresh as possible for his primary targets and spend more time with his family.

Nevertheless, MVG will still have a job on his hands at Dortmund's Westfalenhalle to break the record he currently shares with Phil Taylor of four successive European Championship titles, with the likes of Peter Wright, Rob Cross, Mensur Suljovic and Michael Smith among those aiming to become just the fifth different player to lift this trophy in the tournament's 11th staging.

Simon Whitlock and Adrian Lewis are other two victors following their triumphs in 2012 and 2013 respectively and you cannot rule out Jackpot this year either given his recent improvement in form and his pretty good draw, which we'll get to later.

Is MVG too hot to handle?

MVG is obviously a fair odds-on favourite not only because he's won 20 consecutive matches in this event but mainly because he's rampantly returning to his best form at exactly the right time as the hectic winter of majors ramps up another notch.

The world number one does this every year. In 2016 he won the last six televised majors on the bounce - the World Grand Prix, European Championship, World Series of Darts Finals, Grand Slam of Darts, Players Championship Finals and the 2017 World Championship - while in 2015 and 2017 he won the middle four.

He emphatically answered doubts over his dominance by romping to glory in the World Grand Prix earlier this month and he heads to Dortmund on the back of emphatically winning his eighth European Tour event of the season in Goettingen a fortnight ago.

We have not seen him since as he opted against the most recent pair of Players Championship events which means he's on a winning streak of 10 matches and it's not easy to see who can stop the king of Europe, who has incredibly averaged 107, 108 and 111 in the last three finals of this major.

However, regular readers of my previews will know I'm not a fan of tipping up MVG especially in events when it's a short format in the early rounds. The best of 11 legs first round hasn't obviously caused him any problems here in the last four years but this year we have seen Jeffrey de Zwaan dump him out of both the UK Open and World Matchplay while he slipped up to Peter Wright at the Champions League of Darts.

All three of those matches on a major televised stage were either best of 19 or 21 legs so that will give Paul Nicholson a glimmer of hope on Thursday night.

Not that I'm expecting the improving Asset, who has lost the last eight encounters dating back to 2013, to cause a shock but it's possible. Even if he gets past the Gibraltar Darts Trophy semi-finalist comfortably enough, he's also got Wright in his quarter of the draw as well as Michael Smith, Rob Cross and the dangerous Ian White in his half (click here for the full tournament draw & daily schedule).

Given this loaded half, I'm not keen on backing anyone from it to lift the trophy but I do like the price of 11/2 on Snakebite to win the first quarter, even though he will probably need to beat MVG over 19 legs to do it.

Wright may have lost the World Grand Prix final 5-2 against the Dutchman but neither player produced their best that night and he could so easily have gone 3-2 up in sets had MVG not punished him for squandering a big lead with a pivotal 101 checkout.

Prior to that, the Scotsman had won four of their nine meetings in 2019 - and seven of their previous 18 - which is as good as anyone is going to manage from a head-to-head perspective these days against Van Gerwen.

Crucially his 7-5 triumph in week two of this season's Premier League was the first time he'd got the better of him on a televised stage in the UK (and the second on TV anywhere having also done so at the Japan Masters in 2015) while he also sensationally completed the double in front of the Dutch fans in Rotterdam.

Between those nights he suffered two defeats in European Tour finals to Van Gerwen but more recently he claimed that unforgettable 11-9 triumph in the Champions League of Darts semi-final in which he amazingly hit almost every double he aimed at.

Also Wright loves playing in Germany having won six of the 11 titles he claimed in 2017 there while this year he's reached two finals, albeit losing both to MVG.

But do not let that put you off - he's definitely a spot of value in this market and I would not stand in your way of taking 10/1 on him to lift the trophy on Sunday.

Cullen to prove his worth?

I have perhaps been guilty of backing Joe Cullen too often in tournament sub markets despite being let down on most occasions but the 7/1 on him to win the second quarter is very tempting.

The Rockstar finally came good on the televised stage during the World Matchplay when he stormed into the quarter-finals only to miss two match darts against nine-dart hero Gary Anderson in an absolute thriller.

He's saved most of his consistent performances for the European Tour - hence why he's seeded fifth here - having reached six quarter-finals and two semi-finals, one of which being in Germany.

He has a more than winnable opener against Jelle Klaasen before a probable tough clash with Michael Smith, who faces Steve Lennon, while his quarter-final opponent is likely to be either Ian White or Rob Cross.

Value in the bottom half

Before we get into the nitty gritty of who to back in the 'easier' bottom half of the draw, let me draw your attention to the 11/4 available on any of these 16 players winning the tournament.

Here's the draw bracket and unless MVG makes it through from the top - and I've already expressed my reservations for that - you can't tell me the likes of Mensur Suljovic, Daryl Gurney and even Adrian Lewis wouldn't have less than a fighting chance of finishing the job.

• (1) Michael van Gerwen v (32) Paul Nicholson
• (16) Steve West v (17) Mervyn King
• (8) Simon Whitlock v (25) Steve Beaton
• (9) Peter Wright v (24) Jermaine Wattimena
• (5) Joe Cullen v (28) Jelle Klaasen
• (12) Michael Smith v (21) Steve Lennon
• (4) Ian White v (29) Richard North
• (13) Rob Cross v (20) Danny Noppert
• (2) Mensur Suljovic v (31) Cristo Reyes
• (15) Darren Webster v (18) Stephen Bunting
• (7) Max Hopp v (26) William O'Connor
• (10) Jonny Clayton v (23) James Wilson
• (6) James Wade v (27) Martin Schindler
• (11) Daryl Gurney v (22) Ricky Evans
• (3) Gerwyn Price v (30) Kyle Anderson
• (14) Adrian Lewis v (19) Dave Chisnall

Click here for the full tournament schedule

The player I'd pin most of my hopes on is Suljovic, who has turned into a real force at the highest level over the past couple of seasons and will strongly fancy his chances here. Secretly of course!

The Austrian so nearly won the second big TV major of his career at the World Matchplay when taking Gary Anderson all the way in Blackpool while the same player ended his dream of retaining his Champions League of Darts crown in the semi-finals.

He reached the last four of the World Grand Prix for the third time and looked on course to thrash Wright when leading 3-0 in sets but suddenly imploded out of nowhere.

Suljovic has performed well on German soil too. He beat Gerwyn Price 7-3 when Berlin hosted its first Premier League Darts night, he won the televised German Darts Masters in front of the huge 20,000 crowd at Gelsenkirchen and also reached the semi-finals of the German Darts Championship.

I would have liked a bet in the fourth quarter of the draw but it's so competitive I just cannot call it.

Daryl Gurney is marginal favourite but Gerwyn Price and James Wade have both been solid on the European Tour this season, Kyle Anderson can be dangerous if he's on his game while we saw Dave Chisnall show flashes of his old brilliance at the World Grand Prix and Adrian Lewis is also thankfully climbing the ladder back to his best.

Night one acca, Thursday October 25

There's eight matches on opening night, live on ITV4, and I've bolded up the players who go into my five-fold acca, which you can back at 7.60/1 with Sky Bet.

• Steve West v Mervyn King
• Ian White (2/5) v Richard North
• Simon Whitlock v Steve Beaton (5/4)
• Michael Smith (1/3) v Steve Lennon
• Joe Cullen (8/15) v Jelle Klaasen
• Michael van Gerwen v Paul Nicholson
• Rob Cross (1/3) v Danny Noppert
• Peter Wright v Jermaine Wattimena

Click here to back our night one acca

Night two acca, Friday October 26

Click here for our best bets for night two of the European Championship

Recommended bets: European Championship

1pt Peter Wright to win first quarter at 11/2

1pt Joe Cullen to win the second quarter at 7/1

3pts Player from the bottom half to win the trophy at 10/3

Click here for Sky Bet odds

Related Darts Content

• European Championship: Draw, schedule & guide
• 2018 PDC event calendar & results
• 2019 Premier League darts fixtures
• 2018 Premier League darts results
• Sky Bet's darts odds
• 2019 PDC season results