Boxing betting tips: Saturday August 16
1pt Moses Itauma to win in rounds 6-10 at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Nick Ball to win in rounds 7-12 at 2/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
A young prospect versus an experienced veteran is a scenario almost as old as boxing itself, and we have a fascinating one in Riyadh this weekend.
Everyone in the sport is big on the prospects of MOSES ITAUMA right now and he puts his unbeaten record on the line against Dillian Whyte on Saturday night.
The hype train for Itauma is hurtling along at breakneck speed and it’s not hard to see why, as the 20-year-old has looked brilliant so far and is a 1/8 chance to continue his winning run.
His perfect 24-fight record in the amateurs saw him pick up gold in the World and European Youth Championships and he has stopped 10 of his 12 victims in the paid ranks.
It’s not so much who he has beaten but how he has beaten them, especially in his last three outings. The notoriously durable Mariusz Wach (38-10 at the time) was halted in two rounds, the game Demsey McKean (22-1) was blitzed in the first session and Mike Balogun (21-1) didn’t know what had hit him when stopped in the second stanza in May this year.
The 6’4” southpaw is technically very sound and does everything well, but it is his speed that really stands out. Itauma has the speed of a middleweight, moves like a middleweight but hits like a heavyweight. The quickness of his power shots means his opponents often don’t see them coming and those are the ones that do the most damage.
He will fancy that he is getting the 37-year-old Whyte as the right time, but the latter will believe the same about his man and that this is too early for Itauma. Who is right? That is the intriguing thing about these types of contests.
The British heavyweight scene has thrived in recent years and Whyte has played a big part in that. Since his first defeat to Anthony Joshua in 2015, he went on a brilliant 11-fight winning streak which saw him beat Derek Chisora twice, Lucas Browne and former world champion Joseph Parker. He quickly avenged the loss to Alexander Povetkin that ended that run, then he finally got his title shot against Tyson Fury at Wembley in April 2022 and went out with a whimper, as he was stopped in the sixth round after doing very little.
There is no getting away from the fact that he hasn’t looked good in any of his three outings since the loss to Fury. Whyte laboured to a 12-round decision over Jermaine Franklin in November 2022 before signing up for a rematch with ‘AJ’, only for that to fall through with a week to go when, not for the first time, Whyte failed a drugs test.
After a long layoff, he returned to face trial horses Christian Hammer and Ebenezer Tetteh last year and they retired on their stools after three and seven rounds, respectively. However, neither of them hit the canvas or ever looked in danger of doing so. Once famous for his work rate and fight-ending left hook, Whyte looked one-paced and lacked the power on his shots that made him so avoided in his peak.
Admittedly, he may have needed those last two fight to shake off the rust and he could have found it hard to get motivated for those low-key bouts, but you have to go back to 2021 and the Povetkin rematch for the last time Whyte looked good and that builds a picture of a veteran very much in decline, which is why he can be backed at 8/1 for this one.
Still, this is a big step up for Itauma and Whyte will be in much better shape and much more motivated for this opportunity to get back into the big time. However, Frank Warren is a master at getting his men the right fights at the right time, and he looks to have done it again here with Itauma.
At his best, Whyte was a real physical force with a good jab, and he will need to make this into a ‘dogfight’ if he’s to spring an upset. However, he doesn’t have the physical presence he once did and the difference in speed can allow Itauma to ensure this fight plays out as he wants it to.
The one thing we don’t know about Itauma yet is how he can take a punch, because he hasn’t been hit with a good shot so far thanks to his smart reflexes. That may be his weakness, but his elusiveness could ensure we don’t find that out this weekend.
Itauma has a varied arsenal to draw upon and, as well as mixing it up to body and head very well, he is also a very sharp counterpuncher. This all points towards it being a tricky night for Whyte, whose three defeats have all come by knockout and he looks set for a fourth stoppage loss this weekend.
It is just 1/7 for Itauma to win by stoppage, which leads me to look at the round group betting and 4/6 is the best on offer for the favourite to get the job done in the first six rounds. That could be the case, but it represents little value, especially when you consider the experience Whyte has and the undoubted step up in class this represents for Itauma.
Whyte should know enough to take this a few rounds, at least, and I prefer the 11/4 available for ITAUMA TO WIN IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE CONTEST. He may have to be cautious early doors and will be very wary of the left hook of Whyte, but Itauma can break his man down gradually and really let his shots go once the underdog has wilted a little.
Nick Ball v Sam Goodman
From the best prospect in British boxing to the most exciting fighter we have, as Nick Ball defends his WBA featherweight title against Sam Goodman.
Ball (22-0-1) is on a real roll right now and starts as a 1/4 favourite on his return to Riyadh, but Goodman (4/1) is a good test, and this is certainly no ‘gimme’ for the favourite.
A world youth champion as an amateur, Goodman is 20-0 (eight early) as a professional and was twice slated to fight the great Naoya Inoue, only for cuts in sparring for Goodman to scupper both those fights.
The Australian has done nothing wrong so far and while he has yet to prove himself on the world stage, he is a skilful technician with a good all-round game and nice feet.
However, he is not only stepping up in class here but also stepping up in weight, as he has been a career super bantamweight so far and Ball is as physical a test as they come at featherweight.
After ending 2023 with a good points win over Isaac Dogboe, Ball was very unlucky not to pick up the WBC belt when drawing with Rey Vargas here in Saudi Arabia, before coming out on top in a humdinger with the highly-regarded Raymond Ford to pick up the WBA strap. He then defended it in two homecoming shows in Liverpool, halting both Ronny Rios and TJ Doheny in the 10th round.
Ball concedes height and reach again but that is nothing new for him and he uses his short, stocky frame to his advantage, launching his two-fisted attacks from low down and he is very good on the inside. His attacks are relentless and keeping him off could be a real problem for Goodman, just as Rios and Doheny found out. Ball walked through everything they had to offer to keep pressing and eventually wear them down.
Those victories displayed what an amazing engine Ball has, and his work rate is something nobody has been able to live with so far. His aggression is non-stop, and he carries his power from the first bell to the last, as evidenced by his 12th-round stoppage wins against Nathanael Kakololo (2022) and Ludumo Lamati (2023).
Goodman moves well and will look to keep this at distance early on. While he may have success for periods of time, just as Ford did against Ball, the latter’s pressure and volume usually begin to take their toll at some point and that could be after the halfway mark here.
Once Goodman’s feet begin to slow, then it could be one-way traffic in Ball’s favour, and I fancy him to get the stoppage between rounds seven to 12 at 2/1.
Goodman had much tougher fights with Chainoi Worawut and Cesar Vaca Espinoza in his last two outings than the wide scorecards would suggest and he was tagged quite a bit in those contests. He took those shots well but Ball hits harder and with more ferocity than those foes and I’m not sure Goodman will be able to stand up to that.
This is also Goodman’s first fight outside of Australia, whereas Ball is making his third appearance in Riyadh and that could count for a lot.
Posted at 1350 BST on 15/08/25
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Both of these like to go for the knockout and they carry power, but I expect Marshall to have too much on her return to boxing and the 4/1 about her getting a stoppage looks too big to me.
