Lionel Messi celebrates win over Croatia

xG World Cup review: Day 24 scorelines according to expected goals


We deliver the xG (expected goals) scoreline, a 'fairness' rating and noteworthy data points from the first semi-final between Argentina v Croatia.


What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

Argentina 3-0 Croatia

A Lionel Messi inspired Argentina eased past Croatia to make it to the sixth World Cup final in their history and first since 2014.

The little magician was instrumental again for his side, scoring the opener from the spot while also providing an incredible assist to make it 3-0.

That converted penalty takes Messi's goal tally to five for the tournament, moving him level with Kylian Mbappe on the top scorer charts.

La Albiceleste created an abundance of chances, with all three goals coming in quick transitions, while Croatia offered very little and were deservedly beaten.

Lionel Scaloni's side have been nothing short of sensational in Qatar according to the data, winning the xG battle in all six matches, while limiting every opponent to less than 0.70 xGA in the process.

The underlying numbers are staggering, averaging 2.29 xGF and allowing just 0.41 xGA per game at the World Cup. It really doesn't get any better.

Croatia's defence was their undoing, conceding 2.0+ xG in all three knockout games.

Argentina are fully deserving of their place in the final, where Messi has a chance to complete his mission.


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