Wimbledon betting tips: Tennis preview and best bets for Novak Djokovic v Matteo Berrettini
Andy Schooler is focusing on the serve markets for Sunday’s Wimbledon final between Novak Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini, with a 14/1 shot among his picks.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon Men's Final
2.5pts Novak Djokovic (+12.5) to win the aces handicap v Matteo Berrettini at 4/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Berrettini to serve the most double faults v Djokovic at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Djokovic to serve most aces v Berrettini at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Novak Djokovic v Matteo Berrettini
“Experience is on my side,” was a Novak Djokovic quote looking ahead to this match.
Just a tad.
This will be his 30th Grand Slam final but Matteo Berrettini has never played in a match at this level before.
However, it is Djokovic’s titles tally which will be the focus for both player and his many fans when he takes to Centre Court on Sunday.
In it, Djokovic will be chasing a 20th Grand Slam success, one which will draw him level with long-term rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, and arguably take him past the winning post in the greatest-of-all-time debate.
With such a prize at stake, it’s easy to make an argument that the pressure may be felt. That’s fair enough – and even if we didn’t have Djokovic running at 17/20 from the start of the tournament, I’d have no interest in backing him to win this match at 1/4.
Some evidence can be found for that pressure theory. In 2015, Djokovic went off a hot favourite against Stan Wawrinka at Roland Garros as he looked the complete the career Grand Slam but was well beaten by a player playing out of his mind.
While I think it would be unfair to Wawrinka to compare Berrettini’s game too much to his, the Italian certainly has similar power in his racquet. A player with such a weapon in his arsenal will always have a puncher’s chance, although playing lights-out for three sets against an all-time great takes some doing.
Berrettini has certainly been playing well. He’s backed up his Queen’s Club title in the exact fashion he’d hoped – and many predicted.
The first serve is a sledgehammer and usually sets things up for him to control the points. Even if that misses, the second delivery is still potent – he’s won 61% of points behind it so far in the tournament.
The problem for him here is he’s playing arguably the best returner the sport has seen. This will be a much different test to what’s gone before.
What do you have to do to defeat Novak Djokovic?
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) July 10, 2021
Despite Shapovalov throwing everything at him, there was no stopping the 19x Grand Slam champion...#Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/nN2PYuyjIf
In addition, Djokovic seems to have taken his own serve up a level of late.
During this year’s Wimbledon, he’s actually won a higher percentage of points behind his first serve than Berrettini (85% to 82%), which is pretty remarkable.
It’s fair to say Djokovic hasn’t hit top form yet at the tournament but his ability to find his best at key moments remains a facet of his game which others simply cannot match.
I expect him to lower the threat of Berrettini’s serve and win the match – something he’s managed to do in both previous meetings, most recently at this year’s French Open when he won in four sets.
As already shown, that’s not a get-rich scheme, though.
For those already on Djokovic, clearly there’s a chance to hedge now and I wouldn’t completely rule out the Italian given the way he’s been playing.
If pushed, I’d go 3-1 Djokovic (around a 3/1 chance). The Serb has won only one of his previous six Wimbledon finals in straight sets and Berrettini may well be able to hold it together for 40 minutes in order to claim a set.
However, again the best bets for this match come in the sub-markets, in particular the serving ones.
Djokovic surprised many by out-aceing Denis Shapovalov the other day – I saw the Canadian quoted at 1/200 by one firm to win that battle.
Despite Berrettini’s serving so far – he tops the ace charts with 101 - a repeat upset here should not be ruled out for DJOKOVIC TO SERVE THE MOST ACES at 14/1.
Those previous meetings have brought a 11-10 win for Berrettini and a 4-4 draw.
Djokovic’s returning simply isn’t getting the credit it deserves from that market and, as mentioned earlier, his own serving is currently at a very high level. His ace count of 63 is far from shabby.
The world number one has a strong record of competing in this market against faster, ‘bigger’ servers. For example, he has a winning record over Juan Martin del Potro in the aces department, while he’s regularly proved competitive against the biggest of them all, John Isner – a quick glance at their head-to-head ace stats show Djokovic has managed to win before and on several occasions has lost by just a single ace.
That brings us to the best bet which is Djokovic TO WIN THE ACES HANDICAP with a 12.5 start.
This really looks like it should win with such a handicap having been covered against Djokovic only three times at the Slams in the past five years – once by Roger Federer and twice by Milos Raonic.
I’ll also gladly back the 14/1. It may not land but it’s a price which is simply too big.
Finally, I also like the look of Berrettini to SERVE THE MOST DOUBLE FAULTS at 6/4.
This has happened in both previous meetings (3-1 and 2-1) and it’s not hard to see Berrettini’s second serve coming under pressure in this match.
That may force him to go for that little bit extra on that delivery. If that happens, errors should follow.
Djokovic does lead the double-fault count 17-12 across the tournament so far which perhaps explains the pricing but as I’ve often said before, the head-to-head is usually more eye-opening for the serve markets.
- Click here to back Djokovic (+12.5) to win the aces handicap v Berrettini with Sky Bet
- Click here to back Berrettini to serve the most double faults v Djokovic with Sky Bet
- Click here to back Djokovic to serve most aces v Berrettini Sky Bet
Posted at 1800 BST (10/07/21)
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