Both players have strong serves and I’ve written before about Nakashima’s relatively poor return stats – he’s broken serve only 18% of the time on a hardcourt this season, despite some recent strong results which include wins over both Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz.

The American has the better form but I’d expect Cazaux to cause a few problems with the Frenchman’s serve likely to trouble the home hope.

Cazaux demolished Pablo Carreno Busta, who played well in Winston-Salem last week, in the first round and it’s notable that he won the pair’s only previous meeting which came on a hardcourt on the Challenger Tour last season. Cazaux won 80% of points played behind his first serve that day.

That clash went to 7-5 in the decider and while it didn’t feature a tie-break, there looks every chance of one here.

Cazaux has played a breaker in seven of his last 11 matches, while it’s six of 10 for Nakashima.

Essentially, I’m expected a serve dominated, close-fought match and that leads me to play the over 37.5 games line.

Laslo Djere v Novak Djokovic

Taking on Djokovic is always risky business but I’m not at all sure that Djere should be 15/4 to win a set in this one.

Djokovic did little wrong in his opening-round victory over Radu Albot but now he faces a player who has troubled him in the past.

The two Serbs have played each other twice before and one each occasion, Djere has won at least a set.

They met here in New York 12 months ago and on that occasion Djere won the first two sets before losing in five.

Matches against a compatriot can be awkward and this head-to-head, which will surprise many, helps prove that.

Djere will know Djokovic’s game well having played on the same Davis Cup team over the years and I’d suggest that is a big reason for his relative success against the four-time champion.

While Djokovic won easily enough in round one, his first serve went in only 47% of the time and if that figure doesn’t leap up here, Djere will be confident of knocking on the potential upset door again.

A small bet on him winning a set at the price is the suggestion.

Posted at 2040 BST on 27/08/24

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