It’s quarter-finals day at the BNP Paribas Open. It’s been a profitable tournament for Andy Schooler’s match bets – find out what he’s backing in the last eight.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells quarter-finals
1.5pts Jack Draper to beat Ben Shelton at 4/6 (General)
1pt over 0.5 tie-breaks in Tallon Griekspoor v Holger Rune at 10/11 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
Ben Shelton v Jack Draper
Draper delivered us a nice winner by defeating Taylor Fritz on Wednesday and I believe he can repeat the trick here.
The Briton is playing very well right now and his momentum really seems to be building after a strong start to 2025, which included a final appearance in Doha.
I pointed out in my outright preview how big servers have often been able to cut through the slow conditions here – mainly due to the thin desert air – and both of these men have done just that.
Like Draper, Shelton is yet to drop a set in Indian Wells and will be no pushover.
However, Draper’s first serve could be a key factor here in what will be the pair’s first meeting.
He won 91% of points behind it against a baffled Fritz and 90% against Jenson Brooksby in the previous round. Those are the sort of numbers which will put real pressure on Shelton to make the most of any second serves he gets a look at.
Shelton also has a big serve but he’s got nowhere near the 90% mark on first serve points won this week and Draper’s better return game can help him edge home again.
Sadly, early quotes of 17/20 have been snapped up but I’ll play at 4/6 which is usually about as short as I go.
Tallon Griekspoor v Holger Rune
While Rune appears to be getting back towards something like his best form, having defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last round, I’m tempted by Griekspoor here at 6/4.
This is a man who has now won seven of his last eight matches, including taking out top seed Alex Zverev here in Indian Wells.
He’s also won both previous meetings with Rune, although both of those matches took place on a claycourt.
A notable takeaway from those contests was that Rune managed to break serve in just 7% of return games.
Griekspoor’s serve has been a key part of his recent success – he’s up at 88% holds so far this season and has gone unbroken in two of his four matches here so far.
That, plus a relatively poor return game, has seen the Dutchman play a high number of tie-breaks and that’s the route I’m going to pursue.
Eleven of Griekspoor’s last 13 matches have featured a breaker, while one of those previous meetings with Rune did too.
I’m a tad surprised we’re able to get 10/11 about another in this match and, for me, that’s a price worth taking.
Posted at 0935 GMT on 13/03/25
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