Having had a winner or placed finalist in his last three previews, Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini to win the title at 80/1 (Betfred)
1pt Lorenzo Musetti to win the second quarter at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Jakub Mensik to win the third quarter at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
BNP Paribas Open
- Indian Wells, USA (outdoor hard)
The first Masters 1000 tournament of 2025 has something of a minefield look to it from a punter’s perspective.
Some will suggest that’s a case of getting an excuse in early; I say there are excuses and then there are reasons.
This has long been an event at which there have been upsets, not always in terms of the eventual champion, although it is notable that Dominic Thiem, Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz have all won here at big prices in recent years.
It’s certainly not unusual for a host of big names to fall in the early rounds and I expect no different here, especially given we’ve got a change of court surface to deal with this time around.
In the past, they’ve played on a slow Plexipave hardcourt surface on which the ball has tended to kick up pretty high. This, plus the dry desert air, often helped the big servers get he ball up at shoulder height and the likes of John Isner and Milos Raonic were able to deliver good results.
However, those courts have now been ripped up and replaced by a Laykold surface – the same company is responsible for surfacing at the US Open and the upcoming Miami Open.
I’ve been unable to establish if it’s the exact same surface as either of those venues (I asked tournament organisers but as time of writing had yet to receive a response) but it’s been suggested that the courts will play quicker as a result of the change.
That said, indications from the first round of qualifying suggest it remains slow, albeit possibly lower bouncing.
However players find things – and there are usually disagreements over how fast a court is playing – conditions here remain unique. It is the Californian desert, after all, and it’s said that the sand and grit that blows around helps explain why the courts have been so sluggish over the years.
Hopefully that outlines my concerns – when it’s difficult to know how conditions will be, it’s hard to make a confident prediction.
For that reason, stakes will be kept small and I’m seeking value – I doubt the market leaders are going to dominate.
I am certainly keen on trying to get with players who have shown some good form coming into this event, the sort who should be thinking positively, rather than worrying about the court changes.
One such player is MATTEO BERRETTINI, who looked to be getting back to something like his best during the Middle East swing last month.
The Italian has had a wretched time with injuries but was striking the ball well in Doha, where he beat Novak Djokovic before losing a tight one in the quarter-finals to Jack Draper.
He continued in a similar vein in Dubai, again reaching the last eight but losing out 6-4 in the third to eventual champion Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The pair could meet again in round three here but Berrettini really wasn’t far away that day and is more than capable of reversing the result.
Berrettini possesses one of those big serves which has enjoyed great cut-through at Indian Wells in the past, and it was in good working order in the Middle East.
And if the ball does bounce lower, he could make good use of a strong slice, a shot which has served him well on the low-bouncing grass in the past.
Berrettini is in the top half of the draw, where Daniil Medvedev and Alex Zverev are the favourites to make the final.
However, while Medvedev has played in the last two finals here, he’s done very little so far in 2025, going 8-5. Meanwhile, Zverev has struggled since his Australian Open final run, failing to make it past the quarter-finals of three events.
For me, this section is very open and, hopefully, Berrettini can take advantage.
Make mine an Italian double
The second quarter – that of Medvedev – looks the most open of the four.
Casper Ruud is the highest seed in it but both he and Tommy Paul were victims of the sickness bug going round in Acapulco last week. If there are any lingering effects, the desert probably isn’t the best place to be.
Some will be prepared to back them; for the record, I do feel Paul has the game to go well here and he did make the semis a year ago.
The risk I prefer to take here is on LORENZO MUSETTI, who is a much bigger price.
While hardcourts haven’t delivered the Italian’s best results, the slower conditions of Indian Wells do tend to suit those who prefer the clay and I am expecting further improvement from the 23-year-old on all surfaces in 2025.
He was impressive on grass last season, so won’t be concerned by a lower bounce, while on hardcourts he was runner-up in Chengdu and a semi-finalist in Vienna, where Zverev was among his victims.
The risk here is relying on his fitness.
Musetti had to withdraw from Buenos Aires with a calf injury and has missed tournaments in Rio and Acapulco since.
However, several firms will void your bet if he withdraws before hitting a ball and recent evidence shows if he feels he’s not ready, he won’t play.
If he does opt in, opportunity abounds. As stated, this isn’t the strongest part of this draw with Arthur Fils and Ruud the two seeds he’s due to face before the quarter-finals. Medvedev could lie in wait there but that’s far from a given.
Musetti just looks big at 150s to me, although preference is to back him in the quarter market at 20/1.
Moving into the bottom half, two-time champion Carlos Alcaraz can be found at the foot of the draw. However, quicker and lower bouncing wouldn’t help his spin-heavy game and, for me, he’s a fade at around 11/5.
While Djokovic is a five-time champion here, it’s hard to make a strong case for the Serb.
He’s not been beyond the last 16 in four visits since his last title in 2016.
Djokovic did make the Australian Open semis in January but he then had to quit due to injury and when he returned in Doha, he lost his opening match to Berrettini, whose serve caused him all sorts of problems – not a good sign as he prepares to face the barrage coming from Nick Kyrgios, who beat him here in 2017.
Taylor Fritz is another high seed struggling for form – he’s just 4-3 this season – and so I’m keen to look for alternatives to the big guns.
Alex Rublev warrants respect after returning to winning ways, somewhat out of the blue, in Doha last month.
Jack Draper made the final of that event and has also been to the last 16 of the Australian Open this season – he could make waves again.
And Denis Shapovalov could be a danger to Alcaraz if they meet following a good few weeks which have seen the left-hander win the title in Dallas and make the semis in Acapulco.
However, the man I’m taking a chance on here is the talented teenager JAKUB MENSIK.
The Czech beat Ruud at the Australian Open, while he’s also defeated Ben Shelton on a hardcourt this season – the pair could meet again in the last 32 here.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry, who prefers the clay, and Karen Khachanov (3-5 in 2025) lie in his path before then.
For me, that’s conquerable route through to the latter stages.
Mensik has plenty of power to hit through a sluggish court (if indeed that’s how it plays) and is a player who has been able to challenge the elite – he’s won five of his last 11 matches against top-20 players.
I’ll back him to win his quarter at 14/1.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 04/03/25
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