It’s three winning previews out of three for Andy Schooler in Indian Wells so far. Check out what he’s backing in round four of the BNP Paribas Open.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells round four
1pt Tommy Paul to beat Daniil Medvedev at 11/10 (General)
1pt Jack Draper to beat Taylor Fritz at 17/20 (William Hill)
Jack Draper v Taylor Fritz (Wed)
It’s what was basically priced as a pick ‘em affair, I like Draper here and am not surprised he's the one for money.
Long-term readers will know I’ve long been keen on the Briton’s potential – if he can stay fit.
It’s so far, so good on that front in 2025 with Draper managing his body well. This is only his third tournament of the season with the previous two bringing a last-16 appearance at the Australian Open and a runners-up showing in Doha.
He impressed in putting young gun Joao Fonseca in his place in his opening match here and then saw off Jenson Brooksby, again in straight sets.
Taking in the back end of last season, Draper has now won 16 of his last 19 matches – and one of the losses came via retirement.
Fritz has endured more of a struggle this season, suffering early exits in Melbourne, Dallas and Delray Beach and not looking 100% fit.
Yes, he’s progressed to this stage OK but he didn’t look great for the first half of his match with Alejandro Tabilo on Monday, having to fight back from a set down. Somewhat surprisingly, the Chilean’s serve caused him plenty of problems in those early stages and Draper’s thumping delivery may well do likewise.
The head-to-head stands at 2-2 but Draper won the only hardcourt meeting – indoors in Paris in November – and I feel he can repeat the trick.
Tommy Paul v Daniil Medvedev (Tue)
This looks a big test for Medvedev – and something of a step into the unknown too.
The runner-up here in each of the last two years has done everything asked of him so far in Indian Wells, although that isn’t a lot.
He eased past Yunchaokete Bu in his opener and then was on court for just two games before Alex Michelsen retired on Sunday.
Paul was posting an impressive win over Cam Norrie on the same day and I’m keen on the underdog’s chances here.
This will be Medvedev’s first match against a top-20 player this season so it’s certainly a step up for the Russian, who hasn’t been in the best of form so far in 2025.
He arrived here with an 8-5 win-loss record, a sequence which included defeats to the players ranked 121, 92 and 96 in the world.
Looking back further, he’s 2-8 over the past 12 months against top-20 players on a hardcourt, which is a poor record for a player who has contested multiple Grand Slam finals on this surface.
While his record in Indian Wells is clearly decent, you wouldn’t really think this venue is naturally suited to Medvedev improving that statistic.
He regularly criticised the conditions here for being too slow and I feel that Paul will be the happier to play on a sluggish hardcourt.
The good news for Medvedev is that he’s won three of the four previous meetings with Paul, although the American triumphed in the most recent – on the clay of Rome last season – and was just a tie-break away from victory in the previous hardcourt clash, which came right here in the semi-finals 12 months ago.
A look at the service hold and break figures over the past year on a hardcourt favours Paul – he’s held serve in 84% of his games and broken in 30% on return. His impressive combined figure of 114 is three better than Medvedev’s.
Medvedev famously labelled himself a “hardcourt specialist” at one point but he’s facing another here and I’m far from convinced he’s going to win.
Let’s try a small punt on Paul at odds-against.
Posted at 1020 GMT on 11/03/25
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