Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s last-16 action at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Francisco Cerundolo to beat Alex Zverev at 12/5 (BoyleSports)
Alex Zverev v Francisco Cerundolo
I was prepared to take on Zverev in my outright preview and while he’s survived the first week, it’s not been convincing stuff from the German.
He’s lost a set in all three rounds so far and this could be the test which proves too hard.
Unlike Cam Norrie in the last round, Cerundolo has the power to go toe-to-toe with Zverev, with his forehand a serious weapon – he’s capable of breaking down the Zverev weakness, the forehand, in the cross-court exchanges, and we’re likely to see a few drop shots too with Zverev not at his most comfortable when drawn into the forecourt.
Cerundolo has a proven track record for troubling Zverev, although admittedly all three of his wins have come on a claycourt.
The two hardcourt matches have both gone Zverev’s way, although one was indoors and in the other Cerundolo was bothered by injury and had to retire.
The Argentine, who beat the likes of Alex de Minaur, Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik on a hardcourt last season, has obviously therefore got to do something he’s yet to achieve but form suggests that could happen.
Cerundolo is yet to lose a set in Melbourne and was impressive in taking down Andrey Rublev on Friday, losing serve only once and his second serve holding up well.
A repeat showing here will give him a chance of the upset which, at 12/5, looks worth a try.
Alexander Bublik v Alex de Minaur
I think this is an intriguing match – but also one tough to call.
De Minaur, the slight favourite at 4/6, leads the head-to-head 3-2 but Bublik won both meetings in 2025 which was the year he really joined the elite level.
Both players have pretty much cruised through the first three rounds in Melbourne, the only set lost being De Minaur’s opener against Hamad Medjedovic, who was unable to stay at his peak level for more than a set and a half.
My thoughts here are that the first set will be crucial and that whatever pattern plays out may prove difficult to change.
It’s not hard to see Bublik’s destructive serve being a decisive factor but, at the same time, if De Minaur is able to get an early read and nullify that weapon, neither is it hard to see him taking control in the longer rallies. His defence was impressive against Frances Tiafoe the other day, while we also saw his improved aggression at play.
I can’t decide which is more likely but what either option does is open up the possibility of attacking the unders in the total-games market.
I can see one pattern proving hard to turn around so under 40.5 games at 4/5 is tempting but and the fact that both of those 2025 meetings went to a final set means I’m going to give this a miss.
Posted at 12:25 GMT on 24/01/26
More Australian Open content
- Men's singles outright betting tips
- Women's singles outright betting tips
- More Sporting Life tennis content
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