Andy Schooler previews the women’s singles at the 2026 Australian Open, which gets under way on Sunday.
Australian Open betting tips: Women's singles
3pts win Aryna Sabalenka at 15/8 (General)
1pt win Amanda Anisimova at 10/1 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
0.5pt e.w. Karolina Muchova at 50/1 (Sky Bet, StarSports)
0.5pt Elise Mertens to win the fourth quarter at 33/1 (William Hill, BoyleSports)
Australian Open – Women’s singles
- Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
While two figures dominate the men’s market for the Australian Open, the women’s draw looks somewhat more open.
While there is a pretty firm favourite in world number one Aryna Sabalenka, she’s far from odds-on, while a number of contenders are lining up behind her, ready to pounce.
The more open nature of the women’s game is perhaps summed up best by the fact that last year the four Slams were won by four different players, something which also occurred in 2023 and 2021.
I think it will be beneficial to break down this draw into its component quarters so, without further ado...
Quarter one
ARYNA SABALENKA heads up the draw and I have to agree with the layers’ assessment that she’s the most likely winner.
The Belarusian won here in 2023 and 2024 and her 20-match win streak at Melbourne Park was only ended in last year’s final by Madison Keys.
The reigning US Open champion has also won two of the last three editions in New York, meaning she’s won four of the last six hardcourt Grand Slams – and in the other two, she was the beaten finalist.
Across all surfaces, she’s made the semis in 13 of the last 16 Slams which is remarkable consistency and so if you do decide to back Sabalenka, you are at least likely to get a run for your money.
She’s already up and running in 2026 having captured the Brisbane title – her fifth in four years in Australia – and she certainly looks the one to beat.
Her power off the ground and through her serve is capable of blowing away most players and there don’t appear to be too many genuine challengers to her in this section.
Victoria Mboko and Marta Kostyuk have both started the season well with final appearances on the WTA Tour but I’m not sure I see them living with Sabalenka.
Quarter two
Coco Gauff is the favourite to come through this section and, if she produces her best, she will probably do so.
Overall, she looked pretty good at the United Cup where she beat both an in-form Maria Sakkari and, most notably, world number two Iga Swiatek.
However, there was also a reminder of the reason that often puts punters off backing her with a shock loss to Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. During that match, the familiar sight of double faults flowing from the Gauff racquet was very much on show.
It’s an issue which she still hasn’t fixed and while she’s often found ways of overcoming it, largely thanks to her strong will and determination to win, sometimes it proves costly and that match was one such example.
I’ve backed Gauff before to win Slams – successfully so at both the 2023 US Open and last year’s French Open – and will likely do so again. However, on this occasion and I’m really not convinced enough.
Mirra Andreeva is the next highest-ranked player in Q2 but I’m not quite sure about her either.
She is still only 18 so there’s still plenty of time for the Russian but, for me, she still suffers too many strange losses – the second half of last season was littered with them against lowly-ranked foes.
Andreeva has at least started this season better and, at time of writing, she is due to contest the final in Adelaide. I wouldn’t be surprised were she to reach the last four but she’s not much of a price.
With the leading two in the section both capable of imploding, I prefer to look for some value in this section.
As regular readers will know, Elina Svitolina is a player I’ve long admired. She’s one of the tour’s best defenders and has great counter-punching ability.
She opened 2026 with a title run in Auckland and now heads to Melbourne where she’s made the quarter-finals on three previous occasions.
I was certainly tempted by her but I also like KAROLINA MUCHOVA, who was an eyecatcher in week one in Brisbane where she beat seeds Elena Rybakina and Ekaterina Alexandrova.
The Czech’s career has been hard hit by injuries over the years but she’s shown they when fully fit, she’s a match for anyone.
That’s reflected in her Grand Slam record which shows she’s made the semis at three of the four majors, including here in 2021.
She has great court craft in her game and her mix of slices and drop shots is exactly the sort of tennis which could drag Gauff out of her rhythm should the pair meet in the last 16.
Quarter three
Defending champion Madison Keys is in Q3.
I still regret not putting her up last year when I was tempted to but I felt, after backing her at numerous times at the Slams over the years, that I couldn’t do so again.
It was a bad move as she won the title at 50/1, beating the world’s top two back-to-back with her brand of powerful, shot-making tennis.
My long-standing theory was that one day she would be able to hold her rather hit-and-miss game together long enough for produce a two-week run and, in January 2025, she delivered.
However, it also felt like if it were to happen, it would be a one-off. She’s now 30 and a repeat seems unlikely, especially judged on what she’s produced since making the quarter-finals of last season’s French Open (ie, not a lot).
In a similar vein to Keys, Jelena Ostapenko can topple anyone when playing lights-out but, like Keys, one suspects she had her day in the sun when she won the 2017 French Open. Sooner or later, she usually has an error-strewn day when those big shots just keep missing.
Jessica Pegula is much more consistent but doesn’t beat the true elite enough for me and I’d much prefer to back a player who does and that’s AMANDA ANISIMOVA.
In her early years, she made a habit of knocking off some big names at the Slams – I remember her taking down Naomi Osaka here one year – and last season she really came to the fore by reaching the finals of both Wimbledon and the US Open.
There was also a big title in Beijing, while she was a set away from reaching the WTA Finals showpiece match.
Admittedly, Anisimova did suffer a disappointing loss to Marta Kostyuk in Brisbane last week but she can probably be forgiven one bad day at the office.
She looks to have a good first-week draw, although one player I’m wary of is potential last-16 opponent Linda Noskova.
She was the player beaten by Anisimova in that Beijing final when the 20-year-old again showed her quality.
Some will remember the Czech beating Iga Swiatek here two years ago during a run to the quarter-finals so a return to Melbourne should bring back some great memories for a player who looks likely to keep on rising in 2026.
Quarter four
Iga Swiatek is the second seed and second favourite but from what I saw at the recent United Cup, she looks worth opposing in Melbourne.
While her Polish team actually won the event, Swiatek suffered singles losses to Coco Gauff and Belinda Bencic and she looked well off her top level.
Swiatek has the motivation of looking to complete the career Grand Slam but the fact is she’s yet to reach the final at Melbourne Park and I’ve long felt the conditions are faster than ideal for her here.
Elena Rybakina will look to take advantage, something she’s capable of doing when on song.
However, she’s got a pretty poor record at the Slams, relatively speaking. Since winning Wimbledon in 2022, she’s only been to one final which doesn’t seem right for a player of her ability.
In 2025, she didn’t go beyond the last 16 at any of the majors and all too often she doesn’t seem to be 100 per cent physically.
Rybakina is one the best servers in the game and has plenty of power to deal with the elite, such as Sabalenka, but she again looks a bit too short in the market, based on her history at the big events.
Frankly, this is a section I can see producing something of a surprise.
I’m sure plenty will side with Bencic after she went 5-0 in helping Switzerland reach that United Cup final. However, she’s shortened up accordingly – no bigger than 7/1 to win the quarter.
ELISE MERTENS is nearly five times the price and she also impressed at the United Cup.
While she was one of Bencic’s victims in that event, their battle went to a final-set tie-break which will give the Belgian great hope she can reverse the result if the duo meet again in the last 32 here. She has beaten her at Melbourne Park in the past, too.
Mertens is a player who has often started the season well. She’s a former semi-finalist in Melbourne and has reached the last 16 on three other occasions, while her record at some of the warm-up tournaments is also impressive, especially Hobart, where she’s twice won and twice finished runner-up.
For me, she’s the one who looks overpriced in this part of the draw.
Verdict
Aryna Sabalenka has been the best hardcourt player in the world for some time and the stats prove it with four of the last six Slams on this surface pocketed.
Few rivals can cope with her power game and she should take all the beating.
On the other side of the draw, Amanda Anisimova warrants respect after reaching back-to-back Slam finals in the second half of last season.
In a half where the leading seed, Iga Swiatek, doesn’t look in particularly good shape, the American looks a decent price of 10/1.
For those seeking a bigger price, Karolina Muchova is an outsider with potential.
The Czech’s career has been stop-start but she was playing well in Brisbane and her unorthodox game style is proven to baffle plenty of opponents.
She’s the sort of player worth backing when she’s in the groove – and properly fit – and that time is now.
Finally, for a long shot in the fourth quarter, I’ll try a punt on Elise Mertens.
She played well at the recent United Cup and wasn’t far away from beating Belinda Bencic, who is one of the favourites in the section.
Swiatek looks opposable, as does Elena Rybakina, so back the Belgian at 33/1.
Posted at 16:10 GMT on 16/01/26
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