Our tennis man Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the 2026 Australian Open men’s singles, which starts on Sunday.
Australian Open betting tips: Men's singles
1pt e.w. Daniil Medvedev at 28/1 (General)
1pt Jakub Mensik to win the third quarter at 16/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betfred)
Australian Open – Men’s singles
- Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
The emergence of Rafael Nadal around 20 years ago and his subsequent rivalry with fellow great Roger Federer took tennis back into the mainstream.
Their battles transcended sport with a certain Novak Djokovic helping create a Golden Era for the game.
As the protagonists began to leave the stage – Federer in 2022 and Nadal two years later – there was a worry that tennis would slip out of the consciousness of many and return to being niche.
If there was a lull, it didn’t last long.
Last year saw Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner dominating the sports pages and TV channels around the world as they produced some remarkable matches, none better than their French Open final which saw Alcaraz win from championship point down.
It left fans wanting more and the duo duly fought out finals at both Wimbledon and the US Open.
The pair, who have now won the last eight Slam titles between them, are odds-on with several firms to complete a full set by playing out the 2026 Australian Open final.
I can’t remember seeing that market being odds-on – maybe it was for Federer and Nadal at some stage – but it highlights what a tough task this event is for punters, certainly those who don’t want to be backing a very short price.
I’m sure the Alcaraz-Sinner final will still attract the cash, although it’s certainly not a price for me.
Maybe I’m a tad stuck in the past but I still see this tournament as having a higher possibility of an upset than any of the other majors.
I still remember Thomas Johansson winning here against all odds in 2002 and the final runs of Marcos Baghdatis, Fernando Gonzalez and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, all at huge prices. The surprises lessened as the Big Four took over but in the past decade we’ve still seen upsets of sorts with Federer and Nadal both winning when considerable comeback outsiders, and the likes of Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas all making the final.
Essentially, the January scheduling for the first Grand Slam of the season invites a surprise or three – some players simply need longer to get into the groove after an off-season rest or training camp where they’ve tried to add new elements to their game.
Interestingly, both Alcaraz and Sinner opted not to play competitively before this tournament, although they did meet in a lucrative exhibition match in Korea. For what it’s worth, Alcaraz won.
Given the gap between them and the rest in 2025, both will doubtless be confident of playing their way into form in the first week, although it’s potentially a risky strategy.
For some punters, it will be a simply case of choosing between the two.
If forced, I’d probably go with Alcaraz, given the prices.
He can be backed at 15/8 which given his strong record against Sinner in recent times – he’s won seven of the last nine at tour level – looks more tempting than the odds-on quotes about the Italian.
The problem, potentially, is getting to the final and that likely meeting with Sinner.
Alcaraz, looking to complete the career Grand Slam by winning this title, has never been beyond the last eight here. In 2024, he was beaten by Alex Zverev, while last year he fell victim to what was surely Djokovic’s best performance of the season.
That said, I don’t see a real reason why Alcaraz’s relative struggles here should continue indefinitely. The GreenSet hardcourts tend to play pretty speedy but that’s not really an issue and he’s not a player known for struggling when the temperatures go deep into the 30s, as they can do in Melbourne.
Sinner is the two-time defending champion so, unlike his rival, has proved he can go all the way here. I would, however, make him more likely to struggle in the heat if he’s pushed long – the Italian has never won a match which has reached the four-hour mark and he’s played in seven of them.
And, looking at the draw, having Joao Fonseca lurking in his section is a potential banana skin – Sinner could face the rising teenage star for the first time in round three.
Anyway, the bottom line is that while it’s hard to look beyond the Big Two in terms of a winner, I’m not wanting to back either man.
Let’s instead look for alternatives and the one who stands out from a little further down the market is DANIIL MEDVEDEV.
This is a player who has reached three finals in his last five visits to Melbourne and while he is yet to lift the trophy, he does have the experience of winning a Slam, having done so at the US Open.
The Russian famously went more than two years without a title but that’s changed in recent times.
The decision to split from long-term coach Gilles Cervara has appeared to work.
Having appointed the aforementioned Johansson to the role, Medvedev’s form has improved significantly.
Since making the change after the US Open, the former world number one has gone 21-5. Of the losses, he missed match points in one and served for victory in the two others.
He made the semis of the Shanghai Masters and then ended that title drought in Almaty. This season began with another victory in Brisbane.
Perhaps most notably, Medvedev seems happier. His interviews have been much more positive. They may return, but the moans about conditions have dissipated.
He certainly got the speedy courts he wanted in Brisbane and while it’s usually a bit slower in Melbourne, the same GreenSet courts and Dunlop balls are in use. And, as that record shows, Medvedev has been able to produce results here in the past.
Some will highlight that he’s not played too many top players over the last few months with only Zverev and Alex de Minaur being top-10 scalps, while he’s lost his last five combined against Alcaraz and Sinner.
But on the plus side, Medvedev looks pretty well drawn. He’s in the same half as Alcaraz but a different quarter, one in which the higher seeds are Zverev, who has cut a frustrated figure in the early weeks of 2026, and Felix Auger-Aliassime, who has an underwhelming Grand Slam record, one which has seen him lose in round one in 12 of his 26 main-draw appearances.
Yes, we may well need an Alcaraz slip to avoid a semi-final meeting (although remember the Spaniard has not been to the last four here yet) but Medvedev looks well placed to take advantage if that does occur.
With Medvedev in that second quarter and Alcaraz and Sinner hot favourites to come through two of the other three, my second bet is going to come in the third-quarter market.
This is led by a player I’ve barely mentioned so far, Djokovic.
Some will feel that’s criminal given he’s a 10-time champion in Melbourne.
The ‘NoleFam’ will disagree but I find it hard to envisage the Serb making it 11, something he’d love to do given it would set a new record of 25 Grand Slam singles titles.
To be fair, Djokovic put up a great fight in his bid to reach 25 last season, making the semi-finals of all four Slams.
However, come the last four, he was usually struggling with either fatigue or an injury – here in Melbourne he was forced to quit his meeting with Zverev. At the other majors, he was beaten in straight sets by either Alcaraz or Sinner.
It was his comments after US Open defeat to Alcaraz which said much.
“It will be very difficult for me in the future to overcome the hurdle of Sinner, Alcaraz, in the best-of-five on the Grand Slams,” he said. “I think I have a better chance best of three, but best of five, it's tough,” Djokovic said.
“I'm not giving up on Grand Slams in that regard, having said that. I'm going to continue fighting and trying to get to the finals and fight for another trophy at least. But it's going to be a very difficult task.
“I know that they are just better at the moment.”
While it was maybe not a raising of the white flag, it was certainly an insight that shows a chink in Djokovic’s mental armour which for more than a decade was so strong.
In addition, the Serb clearly hasn’t prepared as well as he’d have liked to.
Djokovic withdrew from his scheduled warm-up event in Adelaide, saying he was “not physically ready” which isn’t exactly confidence-filling given the best-of-five format which now awaits.
Basically, I’m happy to take Djokovic on here and can say the same about Taylor Fritz, whose knee tendinitis problems still remain, given what we saw at the United Cup where he disappointed.
Lorenzo Musetti could go well. He made the final in Hong Kong last weekend to prove he’s ready to go, although he does face an awkward opener against Raphael Collignon, who has toppled a number of top-20 stars in the past six months.
Instead, I’m going to back JAKUB MENSIK to come through the quarter.
We saw in Miami last season how tough he is to beat once in the groove and while he tailed off rather after that, the Czech was hindered by injuries and it’s easy to forget he only turned 20 in September.
Mensik, who knocked Casper Ruud out of last year’s Australian Open, has impressed in Auckland this past week and he made mincemeat of Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard’s big serve on Friday.
Heading into Saturday’s final, he had already served 46 aces across three rounds and won 79% of first-serve points.
He does have the issue of a quick dash to Melbourne to deal with but the early rounds do look to provide a chance to bed in before a possible last-16 clash with Djokovic.
At this point, it’s worth mentioning that Mensik beat Djokovic in the Miami final last year, facing only one break point in the match.
In a draw which doesn’t look great for the punter, 16/1 about Mensik winning the quarter looks worth a small play.
Posted at 16:00 GMT on 16/01/26
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