Ben Shelton

Daily Australian Open tennis match betting tips: Saturday January 24

By Andy Schooler

Tennis

Sat January 24, 2026 · 1w ago

Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s third-round action at the Australian Open in Melbourne.

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches

1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Ben Shelton v Valentin Vacherot at 5/2 (bet365)

1pt both players to serve 15+ aces in Shelton v Vacherot at 5/2 (bet365, William Hill)

1pt Karolina Pliskova (+5.5) to beat Madison Keys on the game handicap at 10/11 (Betfair, BoyleSports)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | Free bets

Ben Shelton v Valentin Vacherot

The heat truly arrives at the Australian Open on Saturday with temperatures forecast to reach as high as 37C.

The surface should be quicker and higher bouncing than in recent days and that should only increase the chances of a serve-dominated encounter between two big servers.

Vacherot has lost serve only once in two rounds so far, while Shelton has been broken just twice – he didn’t face a break point in his second-round win over Dane Sweeny.

In the pair’s only previous match, which came on the Challenger Tour in Las Vegas in 2022, the duo played two tie-breaks before Shelton edged home 6-4 in the third. Each player served 14 aces that day.

I see William Hill and bet365 go 5/2 about both serving 15+ in this one which looks worth a small interest. Both players have also served 15+ in each round so far despite playing exclusively three-set matches.

Vacherot has been a big improver since that Vegas clash and looks capable of keeping this competitive.

The odds on a first-set breaker – 5/2 – look worth an interest to me, even if the roof on Margaret Court Arena ends up being closed in a bid to combat the heat.

Karolina Pliskova v Madison Keys

Former world number one Pliskova isn’t the player she was but the Czech has posted two decent wins so far in Melbourne.

Former US Open champion Sloane Stephens and rising star Janice Tjen have both been dispatched in straight sets, with Pliskova holding serve throughout the latter match.

Keys is also yet to drop a set, although there have been a couple of in-set struggles.

Long-term readers will know I’m a fan of Keys’ big-hitting game but I’ve also seen, to my cost, what it’s capable of delivering and that’s error-strewn performances.

The figures from her opening two matches aren’t great on that front with her unforced error count already up at 63. That compares to 43 winners.

Pliskova has the ability to fight power with power and I don’t see her going down without a fight here. Interestingly, she won the pair’s only previous meeting, which took place in Brisbane, albeit several years ago now.

Of course, if Keys is on her game, she’s capable of taking anyone apart but I’d suggest it much more likely that the errors which have been present in Melbourne prevent her from doing that in this contest.

Let’s back Pliskova on the game handicap where she gets a 5.5 start.

Posted at 11:30 GMT on 23/01/26