Andy Schooler previews Friday’s third-round action at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1pt Tommy Paul (-3.5) to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on the game handicap at 89/100 (Unibet)
1pt Frances Tiafoe (+6.5) to beat Alex de Minaur on the game handicap at 4/5 (General)
Tommy Paul v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Few people are talking about Paul, a player who was ranked in the top 10 midway through last season before his campaign was ruined by a foot injury.
But having reached the semis in Adelaide last week, he’s been very efficient in coming through the opening two rounds in Melbourne – he’s yet to lose serve.
After Wednesday’s win over Thiago Agustin Tirante, he spoke positively about his fitness, saying he is “definitely” pain-free after his longstanding foot issue.
“It feels nice,” he said. “I’m able to move smoother, but I’m also able to, you know, really aggressively dig in and out of the corners, which is, I mean, super important for my game to be able to turn defence to offence.
“It’s been a while, you know. It’s been basically, I would say, since Madrid, really, where I walked onto the court not really too worried about anything.”
Fokina has the ability to test Paul here but he’s got a very poor record against the American, losing all four of their previous meetings, all of which have been played on outdoor hard, as is the case here.
Two of those matches have come at Melbourne Park, including one last year when Fokina won just three games – although he had come into the match on the back of two five-setters.
The Spaniard was taken to five again on Wednesday against Reilly Oeplka, playing for almost four hours and arguing with a member of the crowd, neither of which likely helps his chances here.
Paul also took Fokina apart at the 2024 US Open, where he won the opening two sets 6-1 6-0 and with that one-sided nature in mind, I think a play on the handicap is the call here.
I’ll take Paul, who also spoke glowingly about how the Melbourne courts “match up with my game pretty well”, to cover the -3.5 mark.
Frances Tiafoe v Alex de Minaur
At close to 4/1, Tiafoe immediately stood out on Friday’s coupon.
While I’m not really expecting him to win, the gap in price just looks too big to me.
The American has a big game and, importantly, loves the big stage. I’m sure he’ll be relishing taking on the home hope in front of a packed Rod Laver Arena.
While his best results have often come on home soil, in particular at the US Open, it should be remembered that he’s a former quarter-finalist in Melbourne.
Tiafoe will go for his shots, as Hamad Medjedovic did against De Minaur the other day.
The Serb wasn’t able to sustain his level after a strong start and some will point out De Minaur was impressive in the second half of that contest.
Maybe he’ll be able to dismantle Tiafoe in the same way but I’m prepared to wager he won’t.
I can see the Aussie losing a set again here – that’s a 7/10 shot.
However, to push the price that bit higher, I’m going to back Tiafoe on the game handicap where he gets a 6.5 start.
Posted at 11:30 GMT on 22/01/26
More Australian Open content
- Men's singles outright betting tips
- Women's singles outright betting tips
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