Tottenham v Manchester United tips: Premier League preview and best bets
Tottenham and Manchester United meet on Saturday, with both in a rut. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, and is keen to get the visitors onside.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Manchester United to win at 7/5 (Betway)
0.5pts Harry Maguire 1+ headed shot on target at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
These two teams come into this game sixth and seventh in the Premier League table respectively, but the negative feeling around both means this is a must-win game even at this early stage of the season.
Tottenham were beaten 1-0 at West Ham last weekend, a game in which they failed to register a single shot in the second half (2nd half xG: WHU 0.85 - 0.00 TOT), while Manchester United were beaten 5-0 by rivals Liverpool at Old Trafford.
The pair risk falling behind in their aspirations of top-four football, but given what we have seen from both, siding with the visitors seems the smart play.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Tottenham 15/8 | Draw 5/2 | Man Utd 11/8
While a best price of 7/5 may look short for a MANCHESTER UNITED WIN, remember they are playing Spurs - not Leicester or Liverpool.
In this fixture last season, United were generally 6/4 to beat Jose Mourinho's faltering side, but the stats show that this current Tottenham team under Nuno is actually worse.
Tottenham are really struggling at both ends of the pitch.
They can't keep teams out, demonstrated by their xGA of 1.75 per game, the fifth worst defensive process in the league. Only three teams have allowed more non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG+) than Spurs' 14.
At the other end, they can't create. Spurs are averaging just 1.11 xGF per game, with only Norwich posting a lower average (0.86). Only two teams have created fewer non-pen big chances than their five.
That is not expected from a team possessing the likes of Harry Kane, Hueng-min Son, Lucas Moura et al.
While Manchester United have their own defensive issues, allowing 1.71 xGA per game this term, their attacking unit is far more explosive and consistent.
Ole Gunnar Solksjaer's side have averaged 1.74 xGF per game this term, and ultimately, that is the difference between United and Spurs.
Both have struggling defences, but one (United) has an attack that has no problem creating chances on a regular basis, and the other (Spurs) can't get anything going in forward areas.
So, in a game that will likely contain goals due to the porous nature of both defences, siding with the more consistent attacking team is the sensible play, so backing an away win is the selection.
One other angle that caught my eye when digging through was Spurs' vulnerability from set-pieces, as well as Manchester United's ability to create chances from dead-ball situations.
Spurs are allowing 0.31 xGA per game from set-pieces, while United are generating 0.38 xGF per game.
That may not seem a lot on both counts, but when we consider that the average shot from a set-piece has an 8% chance of being scored, we are effectively saying that Spurs concede nearly four (3.88) shots per game from dead-ball situations and United take nearly five (4.75).
All of a sudden those figures look large.
Harry Maguire is the obvious aerial threat in the United side, and while he hasn't scored yet this season, he has taken eight shots equating to 1.02 xG - with two of those hitting the target.
In fact, across last season and this season, Maguire has taken 44 shots in 43 league games, with 11 of those hitting the target - a 25% shot on target rate.
Given the increased chance of United - and therefore Maguire - getting opportunities from set-pieces against Tottenham, the price of 9/2 around MAGUIRE 1+ HEADED SHOT ON TARGET appeals.
He is just 11/4 to have a shot on target, be that with his head or foot, so the jump to 9/2 appears a big one for that shot on target to come via his head.
In probability terms, the bookies are suggesting he has a 27% of landing a shot on target, but only an 18% chance that shot on target comes from his head - a player who is renowned for his aerial dominance. The difference seems too big and is worth a small play.
Tottenham v Manchester United best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Manchester United to win at 7/5 (Betway)
- 0.5pts Harry Maguire 1+ headed shot on target at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1445 BST (28/10/21)
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