Tottenham v Man Utd: How even Nuno could out-tactic Solskjaer
Despite entirely contrasting narrative arcs, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Nuno Espirito Santo have arrived at the same point in the road.
The Manchester United manager is reaching the endgame of a long and winding journey, carried along on a wave of blind optimism, while the Tottenham Hotspur head coach has only just begun his descent into the woods, with chains around his ankles from the outset.
But the details of how they got here hardly matter now. Both are residing over a team of individuals, wheezing through matches without a plan; without any discernible direction from the dugouts.
Nuno and Ole a long way from elite
It is a curious tactical dilemma that leaves the two managers on the brink and captures the predominant fault line of contemporary Premier League football, namely that to succeed at the top requires highly-structured possession football.
In an age when wealth inequality within the top flight creates matches of distinct territorial dominance, vibes will no longer do.
The best coaches have diligent methods for how to work as a collective on positioning and movement, on pressing and building into the final third.
There is a good reason why Mauricio Pochettino is the number one target of both clubs if either Solskjaer or Nuno are fired.
This weekend's crunch match is symbolic of what happens when elite clubs hire outside of that specialised niche of tacticians.
The quality will generally be low and the football disjointed, a lack of fluency – now the result of both vague coaching and low-confidence players – defining what threatens to be a relatively dull match.
But Spurs are definitely in the stronger position, primarily because Nuno does at least have a preferred tactical style and, crucially, has the humility to enact it.
Spurs' game plan should be clear
As in the 1-0 victory over Manchester City in the opening game of the season, there is a good chance Nuno will instruct his players to sit off Solskjaer's side and wait for opportunities to counter-attack.
The advantages of this are obvious: as Liverpool showed, the haphazard pressing from individual United players will leave massive spaces on the break for the likes of Heung-min Son and Harry Kane to burst forward.
Beyond that - and with Solskjaer inexplicably focused on playing adventurous attacking football despite previous success holding a low block in 'Big Six' matches - forcing United to hold so much of the ball will lead to flat, lifeless football.
That's certainly what we have seen in almost every Man Utd game this season, and it will likely draw the full-backs forward to provide extra space on the break for Spurs.
In other words, Tottenham should be able to roughly emulate what West Ham did to them last Sunday, when Nuno's side failed to record a single shot on goal in the second half as David Moyes' team dug in and denied them space in the final third.
McFred to come unstuck again
Of course, neither team really wants to dominate the ball and Spurs won't always be able to force the pattern of the game like this.
But assuming Nuno won't be quite as aggressive in the press as he was in a 3-0 home defeat to Chelsea, Spurs should be able to ruffle feathers in the midfield battle as Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Tanguy Ndombele assert themselves in that infamously fallable Fred and Scott McTominay midfield space.
From a more hunched, and therefore compressed, position, Spurs have a tactical and physical advantage through the middle of the park – which should help them play the more assertive and confidence-building football.
As for Man Utd, their greatest threat (as usual) is individual moments of quality, either from Bruno Fernandes picking the lock or Cristiano Ronaldo pulling something off in the penalty area.
Tottenham's central defence is certainly vulnerable to world-class players pulling the strings, not for any specific tactical reason but because of the lack of sharpness in the Cristian Romero and Eric Dier partnership.
Stubborn Solskjaer to plod along
But overall Spurs will be confident, that is unless Solskjaer takes the unexpected step of shaking things up considerably in a desperate attempt to keep his job.
Multiple reports have suggested he will be given several games to convince the board, meaning there is still time to make major changes and give the impression of progress.
That could mean he reinstates a deep-lying, counter-attacking strategy and humbly puts his wish for proactive football to one side.
It could even mean taking Ronaldo out, considering his lack of pressing has caused the system to collapse. However, more likely Solskjaer will stubbornly continue as he has done, giving Nuno and Spurs exactly the battle they want.
It's hard to ignore the similarities between Liverpool's 5-0 win last weekend and Tottenham's 6-1 win at Old Trafford in October 2020.
That day, Spurs easily caught them on the counter; caught them with sharp football and quick set-pieces; and caught Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire falling over each other in a comical defensive performance.
The Tottenham and Man Utd players will still have those memories. The most likely outcome this weekend is a repeat of that – in style, if not quite in scoreline.
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