Snooker betting tips: Ronnie O'Sullivan backed to win UK Championship
Ronnie O'Sullivan is Richard Mann's headline selection to win his eighth UK Championship in York next week – read his full preview here.
Snooker betting tips: UK Championship
3pts Ronnie O'Sullivan to win the UK Championship at 9/2 (General)
1pt Mark Allen to win the UK Championship at 16/1 (General)
Keeping things simple is rarely a bad philosophy to follow, and backing RONNIE O’SULLIVAN to win his eighth UK Championship in York next week appears the simplest solution to the annual York puzzle, but also the blatantly obvious one.
When it comes to York, O’Sullivan is very much the king of the castle that stands atop of Clifford's Tower, a beast in the Barbican where The Rocket has enjoyed some of his finest moments on the table.
In 2018, O’Sullivan was flawless as he sauntered into another final before blitzing Mark Allen with a display of snooker so strong in all departments that his opponent could not lay a glove on him – even more impressive considering Allen won the Scottish Open, which O’Sullivan skipped, a week later.
In claiming his seventh UK title, O’Sullivan became the most successful player in Triple Crown history, and that record of titles now stands at 21 following two more World Championship wins – the latest coming last spring to put him level with Stephen Hendry on seven.
O'Sullivan set to peak for York
Despite that, and seven Masters titles, O’Sullivan has made no secret of his love for York. A beautiful part of the world, especially in winter, O'Sullivan always enjoys his time in North Yorkshire, exploring this most famous of cities, its weaving, cobbled side streets and many coffee shops – all hidden gems.
And of course, O'Sullivan relieves himself from the pressures of being snooker's brightest star by running in York's picturesque surroundings.
There is so much for O’Sullivan to enjoy in York that he evidently looks forward to his time here, and it’s no surprise that has fed into his performances on the table. Even last year when still searching for his best form, O’Sullivan was a single frame away from making another semi-final, while it took a brilliant display from eventual winner Ding Junhui to beat him in 2019.
It doesn’t take Inspector Morse to work out that O’Sullivan always has an eye on York and ensuring he plays well at the UK Championship, and while he started last season slowly, things have been much more better this time around.
Very good when winning the invitational Hong Masters last month, O’Sullivan took his form to another level when taking home first prize at the Champion of Champions last week, making three centuries in the final as he proved far too strong for Judd Trump.
That's three times in their last three meetings that O’Sullivan has got the better of Trump – all in high-profile matches – and not only speaks volumes as to where O’Sullivan’s game is at right now, but should also do his confidence plenty of good, with Trump having had the edge over his older rival in the preceding couple of years.
Should they get that far, they won’t meet until the final in York, but I do like that O’Sullivan is regularly proving too good for the big boys at present.
Ronnie remains snooker's top dog
Of course, winning the titles he has over the span of such an illustrious career means he has always done that, but I suspect beating Neil Robertson in a high-quality semi-final in Hong Kong will have done more for him than even his triumph over Marco Fu in the final, just as wins over Trump and John Higgins – whom he beat in the World Championship semi-final following a run of three straight defeats to the Scot – will also do.
There’s a potential quarter-final with Higgins to consider here, but O’Sullivan is playing the better snooker at present, similarly Yan Bingtao who he could meet in the last 16.
All eyes will be on a potential rematch with Robertson in the semi-finals, and in truth, I think that is where this year’s UK Championship could be won or lost.
There's a solid case to be made for the Australian, too, given his record in this event and that we saw signs from him when reaching the last four in Northern Ireland that he is close to his best again. I won’t be reading too much into his loss to Fan Zhengyi at the Champion of Champions, where I thought he played well enough and just bumped into the Chinese youngster on a going day.
I’d be surprised were Robertson not winning again soon, and he needs the points given the Northern Ireland Open is the only ranking event he has contested all season. Similar comments apply to O’Sullivan, who has won two invitational events but made little impact in two less prestigious ranking events.
I wouldn’t put ardent Robertson fans off backing their man to win his fourth UK Championship next week, but of the two, I prefer O’Sullivan on what we have seen from both so far this term, and when adding the York factor to the melting pot.
For context, O’Sullivan was 4/1 prior to winning this event in 2018, and he didn’t go into that renewal as reigning world champion or with two recent major title wins under his belt. With 9/2 available across the boards and Sky Bet going 11/2 at the time of writing, he makes plenty of appeal.
Reformed Allen a man on a mission
As I've already alluded to, Trump finds himself in a top half of the draw that also features defending champion Zhao Xintong, Mark Selby, Kyren Wilson, and MARK ALLEN.
Allen appeals as the best option here, not just on recent form but also his attitude in the last few months that has really helped his results and consistency on the table. Following the well-publicised personal issues that clearly affected Allen last season, he has returned from the summer break a different proposition.
With those issues off the table apparently a thing of the past, and a new healthy-eating regime taking effect on his body, Allen has produced his most consistent run of form since the 2019/2020 season, highlighted by winning the Northern Ireland Open for the second year running.
But Belfast wasn’t a one-off this season, with his impressive run to the final of the British Open prior to that most encouraging. Allen appears hungry for sustained success, and having recently been declared bankrupt, he has even more reason than many of the other top players to keep pushing hard for major prizes.
Though beaten by Trump at the recent Champion of Champions, he ran into a man in inspired form that night and did similar to Trump at the British Open so is unlikely to have dwelt on it for long.
That can happen with these elite players, and it certainly doesn’t put me off Allen who has made no secret of his desire to add to his sole Triple Crown success – at the Masters in 2018 – and in reaching the final in 2018, and the semi-finals in 2019, he has certainly been knocking on the door in York.
Allen might even be a better player now – I suspect he’s in a better place mentally – and at 16/1, he is worth adding to the staking plan along with O’Sullivan, with his attitude this season enough to suggest he can cope with facing close friend Jordan Brown in the first round.
Top Trump or one to avoid?
On Trump, there is little doubt he will always be incredibly hard to beat if consistently producing the level of snooker we saw from him at the Champion of Champions, but consistency is the key word here. We haven’t seen that almost scary consistency from Trump in the last couple of seasons that we witnessed in his golden run a couple of years previously.
I’m finding it hard to know exactly which version of Trump we will get next week, and he hasn’t made it past the fourth round in York since 2014. Though a beaten finalist 2020, the UK Championship was held behind closed doors in Milton Keynes that year.
I’m happy to let him go at the same price as O’Sullivan, similarly Xintong who had no answers to O’Sullivan at the Champion of Champions. Perhaps the return to York will inspire Zhao to produce his best, but we haven’t seen anything like that from him of late.
Selby is more interesting, because he keeps hinting that he is close to getting back to the Selby of old, but he came up short against Trump last week, and Allen at the British Open, and I’m not willing to back him at 8/1 with all that in mind.
In fact, Allen makes much more appeal on price alone, as does O’Sullivan who appears primed to for another bold bid in York. A repeat of the 2018 final between O’Sullivan and Allen would do very nicely indeed, and that pair top my shortlist.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 10/11/22
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