The prestigious Masters commences at Alexandra Palace on Saturday. James Cooper assesses the current form of the 16 competitors and recommends three bets.
Snooker betting tips: The Masters
2pts England winning nationality at 8/11 (William Hill)
1pt Gary Wilson to beat Zhao Xintong at 11/5 (bet365)
1pt Si Jiahui to beat Kyren Wilson at 19/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
As the table below illustrates, the two stand out players so far this season have been Mark Selby and Shaun Murphy.
The former was the best player all week at Cheltenham when bagging his 13th ranking title and he cemented a really positive first half of the season with a final appearance in the Xi’an Grand Prix to go with a run to the semi-final in the UK Championship, losing to eventual winner Mark Selby, who has carried the baton through the autumn to the winter months.
Expected wins this season
- Expected Wins is calculated using our 100% match odds, i.e. those with highest return have outperformed market expectations; those with lowest return have underperformed
I’m not quite sure how Judd Trump found himself in that Champion of Champions final given his cue issues at the time and while that made Selby’s task a whole lot easier, he still crashed in four centuries to take the title in his home city.
Far more meritorious for my money was Selby’s 10-8 victory over a back-on-song Trump in the UK Championship and such was the importance of those two victories, they may be looked upon as the catalyst for a genuine shot at further World Championships from a competitor regarded by many as the most complete player of all time.
A strong showing from both is anticipated at Ally Pally and a quirk of the draw sees all seven English participants kept apart in the opening round.
The elephant in the room with this bet is Ronnie O’Sullivan, who is a runner at the time of writing but pulled out 12 months ago and has been open about fleeting visits to the UK these days.
He’s due to play Neil Robertson, who along with Zhao Xintong look to be the major obstacles to a bet on an ENGLISH WINNER but as things stand, 8/11 looks too big on that eventuality.
Back with his trusty apparatus, Judd Trump is clear favourite with me to emerge from the bottom half of the draw, while we have the aforementioned in-form duo in the top half and were O’Sullivan to swerve this, Chris Wakelin, a player in the form of his life, would step into the breach to help us out.
Brace of outsiders appeal in round one
Finding value in matches featuring the upper echelons of the game is never easy but of the eight ties, a case can be made for GARY WILSON and SI JIAHUI being a shade overpriced.
Both have something of a reputation as a big-game player in recent seasons, a strength that should go without saying is a must at an event like the Masters.
Victories over O’Sullivan, Allen, Higgins, Trump and Murphy have helped swell Wilson’s expected wins over actual wins this season and given his personality, he won’t shirk the challenge of Zhao Xintong in the opening round.
It’s fairly well established that Xintong’s A-game is pretty much unplayable as he showcased in Sheffield during the spring, while he also saw off Murphy, Trump and Robertson to claim the lucrative Riyadh Season Championship.
You don’t win the flagship tournament without having resolve to go with the talent but the market constantly has Xintong at a shorter price compared with my numbers.
I thought he wilted in fairly feeble fashion against Trump in the Champion of Champions and Xintong was outplayed by Zhang Anda and Joe O’Connor in the UK Championship and Scottish Open respectively.
At odds of 2/1-plus in a best-of-11, it’s fairly easy to construct a case for Wilson (I’m 7/4 betting to 100%) and while the 8/11 +2.5 is also value, Xintong’s ceiling is so high I’d rather side with the bigger price.
Si Jiahui doesn’t have the same positive form coming into this event, in fact he brings the lowest win percentage to the table.
That clearly isn’t the obvious precursor to a bet but in Kyren Wilson, he plays the opponent with the second-lowest win percentage and lowest expected wins compared to actual wins.
We are dealing with fine margins in elite-level sport and had Wilson slotted in that match-ball black against Xintong in Leicester, things could have looked a whole lot different.
For someone regarded as being one of the hardest match players on the circuit, Wilson conceded the match earlier than I expected with just one snooker needed against Elliot Slessor in York and while he did win a couple of matches in Glasgow, he didn’t kick on.
The scoring power is still there and a slight break may help re-focus Wilson, who is far too good to stay down for long but you know what you are going to get with matches involving Jiahui, who is probably the most attacking player on the circuit.
One win away from a World Championship final appearance in 2024, Jiahui looked the natural successor to Ding Junhui as China’s number one and while he’s been overshadowed somewhat by Xintong and Wu Yize in recent times, he’s still only 23 and has plenty of time to come good.
The early exchanges are important in every match but they could be absolutely crucial here and if Jiahui pings the lids, odds of 19/10 will look generous.
Posted at 14:15 GMT on 06/01/26
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