17:50 Newcastle

Friday 2 October 2020

All16:4517:2017:5018:2519:0019:3020:0020:30

Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Apprentice Handicap

Off time: 17:54 | Winning time: 1m 27.87s

(1)

Model Guest^b¹⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-12| J: Pierre-Louis Jamin⁽³⁾| T: A Watson| OR: 75| BF

14/1

Unreliable type. Remains a maiden after 19 Flat runs. 5/4, bit below form third of 8 in minor event at Catterick (7f, good) 14 days ago. Makes tapeta debut. Not one for maximum faith.

Form: 022243

(3)

Al Aresh^t1¹⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-9| J: Dylan Hogan| T: D O'Meara| OR: 72| D

8/1

40/1, first run since leaving Fabrice Chappet when eighth of 11 in handicap at Redcar (7f, good to firm) on UK debut 17 days ago. May come on for that and one to note in 1st time tongue strap.

Form: 7-58008

(7)

Al Suil Eile²¹³

Age: 4| Weight: 9-8| J: Cieren Fallon| T: J & S Quinn| OR: 71| D

16/1

5/1, creditable second of 7 in handicap at Southwell (7.1f). Best watched after return from 7 months off.

Form: 2-31652

(9)

Algaffaal⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 9-7| J: Harry Russell⁽³⁾| T: B Ellison| OR: 70| CD

9/2

C&D winner. Eleven runs since last win in 2019. Respectable eighth of 14 in handicap (25/1) at this course (8f) 7 days ago. One to consider.

Form: 2-49608

(2)

Defence Treaty^p²³

Age: 4| Weight: 9-7| J: Connor Murtagh| T: R A Fahey| OR: 70| CD

5/1

Unreliable type. C&D winner. Twelve runs since last win in 2019. Creditable second of 20 in minor event at Doncaster (8f, good, 25/1) 23 days ago. Cheekpieces back on. Others more persuasive.

Form: 358602

(10)

Glory of Paris^h³⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 9-4| J: Megan Nicholls| T: P A Kirby| OR: 67| C| D

33/1

Course winner. Twenty seven runs since last win in 2019. Last of 12 in handicap (50/1) at Catterick (7f, heavy) 38 days ago. Hood back on. Needs a couple of these to falter.

Form: 357290

(6)

Sirius Slew^p¹⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: George Rooke| T: J Parr| OR: 67| D

5/1

4/1, creditable third of 10 in handicap at Lingfield (7.6f, good to firm) 18 days ago. Yard are in terrific form and makes plenty of appeal making the journey from Newmarket.

Form: 106-353

(11)

Insurplus⁷

Age: 7| Weight: 9-3| J: Oliver Stammers⁽³⁾| T: J S Goldie| OR: 66| CD

9/2

3-time C&D winner. Thirteen runs since last win in 2019. Creditable second of 14 in handicap at this C&D (10/1) 7 days ago, helped by being held up in strongly-run race. Enters calculations.

Form: 749202

(5)

Nordic Fire⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: Paula Muir| T: R Fell & S Murray| OR: 65

13/2

33/1, good fifth of 14 in handicap at this C&D 7 days ago. Has good chance on form.

Form: 00-8065

(8)

Smart Living^b1,t1³⁵⁴

Age: 5| Weight: 9-1| J: Victor Santos⁽⁵⁾| T: L Egerton| OR: 64

125/1

Lightly-raced maiden. Eleventh of 12 in handicap at Gowran (14f, heavy, 25/1). Off 11 months. First run for yard after leaving J. S. Bolger. Blinkered for 1st time, tongue strap on for 1st time.

Form: 4350-

(4)

Bobby Joe Leg^v²⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 8-8| J: Harrison Shaw| T: Mrs R Carr| OR: 57| CD

18/1

Untrustworthy individual. C&D winner. 2 wins from 5 runs this year. Bit below form eighth of 13 in handicap (14/1) at this C&D 29 days ago. Something to find on form.

Form: 5-12318

(12)

Palazzo^p,t¹⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 8-7| J: Miss Jade Goodwin⁽⁷⁾| T: B Smart| OR: 56

40/1

15/2, below form sixth of 10 in handicap at this course (8f) 10 days ago. Needs to improve to figure.

Form: 130666

Forecasts

Algaffaal (9/2), Insurplus (9/2), Defence Treaty (5/1), Sirius Slew (5/1), Nordic Fire (13/2), Al Aresh (8/1), Model Guest (14/1), Al Suil Eile (16/1), Bobby Joe Leg (18/1), Glory of Paris (33/1), Palazzo (40/1), Smart Living (125/1)

SIRIUS SLEW's trainer has got his career off to a tremendous start in 2020 and the 4-y-o gelding can continue the run. He's proven on tapeta and is a very consistent type running off his last winning mark. Insurplus goes really well here and won't be far away once again. Al Aresh is interesting on just his second start for David O'Meara and should be monitored in the betting.