12:20 Warwick

Thursday 12 December 2019

All12:2012:5013:2013:5514:2515:0015:30

Agetur UK Juvenile Maiden Hurdle

Off time: 12:20 | Winning time: 4m 14.8s

Admirals Bay²⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: James Davies| T: Henry Oliver

50/1

Winner on the Flat at Yarmouth (good to firm) back in May, rated 62 on the Flat; will find this company a lot easier than the Grade 2 event he took in at Cheltenham for his debut, but he didn't show enough there to be of interest here.

Form: 0

Arctic Snow²⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: Conor Ring⁽³⁾| T: Evan Williams

100/1

Frankel gelding, showed a bit of ability at Chepstow on debut in a race that's working out okay, but took a backwards step at Ludlow last time. Yard going well, but chances here limited all the same.

Form: 67

Derry Boy^t1¹²

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: J J Burke| T: P D Evans

100/1

No win in 10 starts on the Flat and looked regressive for most of this year; stamina doubts as well on hurdles debut, particularly if the forecast rain does come.

Form:

Hurricane Hero⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: Lewis Stones⁽⁷⁾| T: O Murphy

40/1

Had ability on the Flat for Karl Burks, if ultimately proving tricky to win with; rated in the 70's in that sphere and this trip within his compass, but another that might not want a lot of rain.

Form: 7

Hydroplane⁷⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: T J O'Brien| T: Ian Williams

7/1

First start for new yard having left Sir Mark Prescott; stays 12f well on the Flat and rattled off a hat-trick of wins in the summer, handles soft/heavy ground fine and if jumping fluently on debut, looks one with a big chance.

Form:

I Like Him^p1⁹⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: James Bowen| T: A Stronge| OR: 130

10/1

First start for new yard having raced in the France for the past year; third in a claimer last time the highlight so far, has plenty of experience already under his belt, but a surprise if he's good enough today.

Form: 258483

Kangaroo Valley¹²⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: J McGrath| T: Henry Oliver

10/1

The best of these on the Flat, having been rated in the 90s when with Aidan O'Brien; makes debut for new yard today, will stay fine but very soft/heavy ground would ask a new question of him. Watch market is the best advice.

Form:

Lightnin Conductor³⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: David Bass| T: J S Moore

150/1

Down the field on both his hurdles starts to date, showing little, and needs a ton of improvement from somewhere if he's to get involved in the finish. Looks unlikely.

Form: 00

Palladium¹⁵⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: N de Boinville| T: N J Henderson

11/10

No win in 6 starts for Martyn Meade on the Flat but stays very well and was rated in the 70's, so could easily be the type to take to this discipline; seemed to act on soft ground the one time he encountered it, so has to be taken seriously here.

Form:

Rowland Ward⁹⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: C Gethings| T: S Edmunds| BF

9/2

Useful on the Flat for Ralph Beckett, winning a 12f handicap at Doncaster in April and generally running to that standard for the rest of the season; rated 85 and new yard do very well with these types, so every chance on debut today.

Form:

Twpsyn^v²⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 10-12| J: Kielan Woods| T: P D Evans

33/1

Got his head in front in a low-grade handicap over 12 on the Fibresand at Southwell last month, so should at least stay well, but overall level of Flat form leaves him with something to find with a few of these today.

Form:

Delta Bravo³⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 10-5| J: J M Quinlan| T: J S Moore

100/1

No wins or places in ten starts on the Flat and was only low-grade; hard to give her much hope here.

Form: 5

Maskada²²

Age: 3| Weight: 10-5| J: Brendan Powell| T: S Edmunds

33/1

Placed on both her starts in bumpers, running to the same level both times, looking like she needed further; makes hurdles debut in what could be a hot little race, and yard appear to have a better chance with Rowland Ward.

Form: 33

Sainte Doctor²¹⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 10-5| J: Aidan Coleman| T: N P Mulholland| D

10/1

Winner of only start to date, that being a conditions race in France after which he joined current connections; that form open to question (second well beaten since) but clearly of some interest for new yard today.

Form: 1

Tronada⁹⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 10-5| J: Thomas Bellamy| T: A King

33/1

Not the biggest and was regressive on the Flat throughout this season, so has a bit to prove despite coming from a yard that do very well with these nippy Flat types when sent over hurdles; might be best watched today.

Form:

Forecasts

Palladium (11/10), Rowland Ward (9/2), Hydroplane (7/1), I Like Him (10/1), Sainte Doctor (10/1), Kangaroo Valley (10/1), Maskada (33/1), Tronada (33/1), Twpsyn (33/1), Hurricane Hero (40/1), Admirals Bay (50/1), Arctic Snow (100/1), Delta Bravo (100/1), Derry Boy (100/1), Lightnin Conductor (150/1)

With the distinct possibility of rain in the morning (and indeed throughout the day) some of these races could have a different look about them by the time we get to racing, and some caution is advised. The market is likely to tell us about the chances of French import Sainte Doctor here but there are plenty of other alternatives. Rowland Ward has the Flat ability and won't fail for a lack of schooling, so he has to be considered, as does Palladium, who might be the type to improve for hurdles. But HYDROPLANE won't mind a drop of rain and Ian Williams is another yard that does very well with them off the Flat. He might be the one today.