18:00 Southwell

Thursday 5 December 2019

All16:1516:5017:2518:0018:3019:0019:3020:00

Play 4 To Score At Betway Handicap

Off time: 18:01 | Winning time: 2m 38.73s

(1)

Double Reflection¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-10| J: Alistair Rawlinson| T: M Appleby| OR: 68

14/1

Very little AW experience (first time on Fibresand); below form on her first run for this yard at Chelmsford last time (1m2f, slow). Twice a winner on the turf in 2018 she's plummeted in the handicap since then and further eased in grade here.

Form: 747930

(3)

Contingency Fee^p,h⁶^{(ex 5)}

Age: 4| Weight: 9-9| J: Grace McEntee⁽⁷⁾| T: P S McEntee| OR: 62| CD

3/1

Dual C&D winner from four attempts he attempts to follow up the latest of those wins under a 5lb penalty for a 5L win. The downside of that win was that it came in what looks a pretty weak race; struggled off marks in the mid 60's and above before.

Form: 633061

(8)

Mr Carbonator¹⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: Phil Dennis| T: P A Kirby| OR: 61| C

6/1

Twice a course winner over 1m he's failed to win over this trip as yet and may not be the strongest stayer at 1m4f. On a fair losing sequence (not won since January 2018) he may well have needed the run at Newcastle last time; remains on a fair mark.

Form: 422267

(6)

Sociologist^p⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: Jonathan Fisher⁽⁷⁾| T: S Dixon| OR: 60| C

11/2

Looked to have a fair chance returned to C&D last time (only career win came on Fibresand) having shown some promise on turf the time before. Failed to repeat that effort when well beaten by Contingency Fee; big task to reverse that form now.

Form: 055623

(7)

Panatos³⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: Daniel Muscutt| T: Alexandra Dunn| OR: 59

9/1

Ex-French performer (never won there); took advantage of a drop in the weights on first try on turf in GB to win at Chepstow over 2m. Produced some fair efforts since (without winning); not disgraced over 2m here last time (race won by stablemate).

Form: 334676

(4)

Princess Harley^p¹⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-1| J: F Norton| T: M Quinn| OR: 59| CD

3/1

C&D winner late last year in a maiden showing her effectiveness on the surface but has failed to win since then in ten handicaps. Back in headgear last time over C&D (travelled better than most); third to an impressive winner, on a decent mark.

Form: 420773

(5)

Angel Lane⁷⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: C Lee| T: K R Burke| OR: 63

8/1

Well-bred sort (half-sister to several winners); gained her first taste of this surface last time in a 1m novice. Now handicapped she makes her debut in this sphere off a mark she should be competitive off, up in trip for a yard who do well here.

Form: 442

(2)

Going Native²⁸

Age: 4| Weight: 8-10| J: Rhona Pindar⁽⁷⁾| T: Olly Williams| OR: 52| CD

14/1

C&D winner with that victory being the sole one in her career so far although she did bounce back to form last time over C&D (didn't get the best of passages). Not the most consistent however so not sure to back that run up despite the lenient mark.

Form: 389772

Forecasts

Princess Harley (3/1), Contingency Fee (3/1), Sociologist (11/2), Mr Carbonator (6/1), Angel Lane (8/1), Panatos (9/1), Double Reflection (14/1), Going Native (14/1)

Two of those likely to be towards the head of the market Contingency Fee and Going Native aren’t among the most consistent with the former winning a weak race last time having struggled off marks like today’s before and the latter facing a tougher ask than in her last outing. Therefore there may be some value in supporting ANGEL LANE on her handicap debut from a yard that perform well here with the step up in trip likely to suit this daughter of Raisaman. Princess Harley also stands out as another contender who could outrun her price having run with credit behind a real Fibresand monster last time (Contingency Fee behind) with Panatos another to consider.