16:50 Yarmouth

Thursday 4 July 2019

All14:2014:5015:2015:5016:2016:5017:20

MansionBet Win Handicap

Off time: 16:52 | Winning time: 2m 8.98s

(4)

Affluence^p⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 10-0| J: E J Walsh| T: Martin Smith| OR: 59| D

6/1

Opened his account in grand style at the 21st attempt and was harshly penalised as result. May face another long wait to score again based on what he's done since.

Form: 221480

(2)

Carvelas¹⁴

Age: 10| Weight: 9-10| J: N Mackay| T: J R Jenkins| OR: 55| D

20/1

Winner of seven races on AW over various trips but 0-18 on turf. Well beaten on last two runs on grass and in here off a higher mark than on those occasions.

Form: 845514

(8)

Pinchpoint^h¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-8| J: David Egan| T: J Butler| OR: 53

9/1

Showed clear ability on first two starts but has been getting progressively poor since and hard to fancy judged on current performances.

Form: 460-860

(11)

Elsie Violet^p⁶^{(ex 6)}

Age: 3| Weight: 9-8| J: Darragh Keenan⁽⁵⁾| T: R Eddery| OR: 57| CD

7/2

Has improved greatly for positive tactics and showed a game attitude to score over C&D last week. Shoulders a penalty for that but there are few realistic challengers opposing her.

Form: 4-08821

(7)

Canavese^p1¹⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: Georgia Dobie⁽⁷⁾| T: Eve Johnson Houghton| OR: 62

25/1

Her one good run in six gives her a clear chance at today's weights, however she looks set to struggle based on this year's more modest achievements.

Form: 523-007

(12)

Swiss Peak^b1⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: Cameron Noble⁽³⁾| T: M L W Bell| OR: 59| BF

9/2

10-race maiden was favourite to beat Elsie Violet here last week but got too far behind in a race where it paid to be prominent. Has 5L to find with that rival, with blinkers to help, but he is beginning to look unreliable.

Form: 50-4546

(10)

Achaeus³⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: T P Queally| T: E A L Dunlop| OR: 56

40/1

Has been beaten by double figure margins on each start and was tailed off on turf debut. Hard to be optimistic about his chances.

Form: 54-960

(5)

Hidden Dream^p⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: K T O'Neill| T: Mrs C A Dunnett| OR: 45| D

10/1

Third here in May but has barely beaten a rival since and has a huge task in trying to overturn a 22L deficit with Elsie Violet.

Form: 543300

(1)

Ocean Spray³⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-0| J: J P Fahy| T: E Stanford| OR: 45

100/1

Officially rated just 26 and even that may be flattering. Impossible to recommend from so far out of the weights.

Form: 900/5-08

(9)

George Formby^h¹⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-12| J: P Cosgrave| T: H Palmer| OR: 53

16/1

Looked modest on debut and has got progressively worse since, culminating in a tailed off last of ten on his most recent start.

Form: 7000

(3)

I'm Brian⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-10| J: Theodore Ladd⁽⁵⁾| T: Miss J Feilden| OR: 51

16/1

Has finished last on three of his four starts and was beaten 121L on handicap debut last week. Impossible to recommend.

Form: 0070

(6)

Cheng Gong^p³⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-7| J: George Wood| T: Tom Clover| OR: 48

3/1

Improved effort on handicap debut with first time cheekpieces. Form is only moderate, but may be good enough to make the frame in an uncompetitive event.

Form: 79-05

Forecasts

Cheng Gong (3/1), Elsie Violet (7/2), Swiss Peak (9/2), Affluence (6/1), Pinchpoint (9/1), Hidden Dream (10/1), George Formby (16/1), I'm Brian (16/1), Carvelas (20/1), Canavese (25/1), Achaeus (40/1), Ocean Spray (100/1)

ELSIE VIOLET made all to score here last week and the game attitude she displayed may be good enough to see her follow up in a field of unreliable types. Carvelas has been in form on the AW but is hard to fancy on his turf form whist Affluence has been in the grip of the handicapper since his sole victory. Cheng Gong is less exposed than many of these and could make the frame this time, whilst Canavese has shown herself capable of better on her day should there be a positive market move for her.