15:25 Ayr Fri 12 April 2019
Quality chaser at best, often highly tried in ultra-competitive handicaps and may find this a touch easier. Still looks well treated on his defeat of Frodon back in 2017, not seen much since then but has his conditions today and has a solid chance.
Only win in last two years came in a moderate race at Uttoxeter, and in truth, has been a disappointment since then. Never got competitive in the Brown Advisory last time out and now has plenty to prove.
Has tumbled to a very competitive looking mark and worth bearing in mind he won off a similar break around this time last year, so has some plus points despite some moderate looking form figures this term. Yard could be in better form, though.
Now back on his last winning mark but that's down to the fact it's been pretty much a tale of woe this winter, and he was never in the hunt at Kelso when last seen. Hard to discount totally, but others make more appeal.
Bit below par at Cheltenham when last seen but showed a likeable attitude when scoring in a Listed event at Wetherby the time before. Not the easiest to read, but chances on a going day, with conditions fine.
Won a couple of decent summer jumps handicaps last year but since then the handicapper has looked to have him where he wants him, and although he's worth another try at this trip after a staying-on sixth in the Grand Annual, others make more appeal.
It's been a tale of steady improvement for much of this season and he gained due reward for his efforts at Ludlow last time (3m). Ideally needs an error-free round, which he doesn't always put in, but has chances from new mark all the same.
Had proved a frustrating sort but finally came good at Kempton last time, looking an improved horse in the process of doing so. Needs another step forward from revised mark but conditions fine, and may just have turned a corner.
Rattled off a hat-trick in handicaps this winter with some excellent front-running displays, jumping very well in the main, but a bit below par at Newcastle last time and maybe the handicapper has now caught him.
Has often come good in the spring, so has that going for him, but so hard to catch right and often finds less in a finish than you think he might. Too many below-par efforts to forgive this winter and on that, others are preferred.
Nothing wrong with his second to Go Conquer in the Skybet Chase last time out, nudged up a pound for that but goes well fresh (which he does here) and these conditions are ideal. Looks one for the shortlist today.
Won one at Market Rasen this January but two lesser efforts since then temper any great enthusiasm for him, and it's fair to say he's not won the races that perhaps he should have. Plenty on in this company, and others preferred.
Looks well enough treated on his win at Gowran Park last autumn, but some indifferent efforts since then and he was disappointing at Wexford last week. Usual headgear missing, and hard to know exactly where we are with him at the moment.
Last Year's Winner
|Value At Risk||9||10-11||5/1|
|T: D SkeltonJ: Harry Skelton|
Born Survivor (10/3), Tommy Silver (9/2), Forth Bridge (7/1), Monbeg River (8/1), Gold Present (9/1), River Wylde (10/1), Theo (11/1), Value At Risk (14/1), Beggar's Wishes (16/1), Drumconnor Lad (16/1), Dimple (16/1), Sizing Granite (33/1), Voix D'Eau (33/1)
- Monbeg River
- Gold Present
- Forth Bridge
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