14:50 Chepstow

Thursday 27 December 2018

All12:3013:0513:3514:1014:5015:2515:55

Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Off time: 14:50 | Winning time: 7m 49.50s

Ballyoptic^t¹⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-12| J: Thomas Bellamy| T: N & W Twiston-Davies| OR: 155| C

20/1

Fourth last term in RSA Chase at Cheltenham Festival and a very close second in Scottish National. In touch when fell in Becher Chase at Aintree last time, handles ground but has plenty of weight.

Form: 24142-F

Yala Enki⁴³

Age: 8| Weight: 11-11| J: Charlie Deutsch| T: Miss V Williams| OR: 154

12/1

Ran away with Grand National Trial at Haydock last term on heavy ground, and reappeard to win incident packed race at Bangor. 4lb higher now but in good heart and won't be far away.

Form: 4F166-1

Elegant Escape²⁶

Age: 6| Weight: 11-8| J: T J O'Brien| T: C L Tizzard| OR: 151| C

3/1

Eased 4lb despite finishing brave second in Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury. Ground to his liking, stays well, and represents yard that won this with Native River two years ago.

Form: 2133-12

Vyta Du Roc^p⁴³

Age: 9| Weight: 11-4| J: D A Jacob| T: N J Henderson| OR: 147

33/1

Lightly raced since close second in former Whitbread Gold Cup in April 2017. Goes well on easy ground and no stamina issues but was very disappointing when pulled up at Bangor on reappearance and much more needed here.

Form: 52/501-P

Vintage Clouds³³

Age: 8| Weight: 11-3| J: Danny Cook| T: J Parkinson & S Smith| OR: 146

8/1

6lb higher than when good fourth in this race 12 months ago. Finished third at both Cheltenham Festival and in Scottish National later in term and won on reappearance at Haydock last month. Major player.

Form: 24233-1

Vieux Lion Rouge^b,t¹⁹

Age: 9| Weight: 11-3| J: T Scudamore| T: D Pipe| OR: 146

12/1

Sixth in 2017 Grand National at Aintree and ninth their last season. Stayed on dourly when runner-up in Becher Chase last time and runs off same mark so shouldn't be too far away once again.

Form: 6/4749-2

Folsom Blue^p,t³³

Age: 11| Weight: 11-2| J: Mr J J Codd| T: G Elliott| OR: 145| D

7/1

Classy Irish raider who was a very close fourth in Irish National last term. Better for reappearance run over hurdles at Haydock last month and top yard has to be respected.

Form: 44140-4

Baie Des Iles^p⁵³

Age: 7| Weight: 11-1| J: M A Enright| T: R O'Sullivan| OR: 144

20/1

Decent staying mare who won Grade 2 at Auteuil this summer having finished 12th in Aintree Grand National on previous start. Outclassed in French Grade 1 last time but may do better now back in handicap company.

Form: 6630-17

Ramses De Teillee^t¹⁹^{(ex 4)}

Age: 6| Weight: 11-1| J: David Noonan| T: D Pipe| OR: 140| C

10/1

All three career wins have come at this track in testing ground, including in Welsh National Trial here 19 days ago. Carries 4lb penalty but ability to stay the extra six furlong has to be taken on trust.

Form: 1279-51

Raz De Maree³²

Age: 13| Weight: 10-13| J: Conor Orr⁽⁵⁾| T: G P Cromwell| OR: 142| CD

25/1

Admirable veteran who is just 2lb higher than when famously wining this race 12 months ago. Hasn't been in same form this term though and a repeat triumph looks unlikely on that evidence.

Form: 210-000

Regal Flow¹⁹

Age: 11| Weight: 10-11| J: Sean Houlihan⁽⁵⁾| T: R H Buckler| OR: 140

33/1

No stamina issues having won Midlands National off 5lb lower mark last campaign. In touch when unseated rider 14th in Becher Chase last time but should be fully fit and is not without hope.

Form: 110-06U

Rons Dream²⁵

Age: 8| Weight: 10-10| J: S Bowen| T: P & M Bowen| OR: 139| BF

16/1

Progressive mare who has won two listed handicap chases in her last three starts. Drop in trip against her when second at Carlisle latest but has never won beyond 3m and stamina in these conditions is open to question.

Form: 21F1-12

Looksnowtlikebrian⁵³

Age: 7| Weight: 10-9| J: Alan Johns| T: Tim Vaughan| OR: 138| C

12/1

In form gelding has won four of last five starts, including easy success at Carlisle last time. 9lb higher but is clearly going the right way and another bold display is anticipated.

Form: 2116-11

Final Nudge²³⁶

Age: 9| Weight: 10-9| J: Sam Twiston-Davies| T: David Dennis| OR: 138

12/1

Good third in this race last year and is 14lb better off with the winner this time around. Hasn't run for nearly eight months but can go well fresh and any market interest would be significant. Top jockey booked.

Form: 2359F-0

Lieutenant Colonel^t¹⁹

Age: 9| Weight: 10-8| J: M G Nolan| T: Mrs S Leech| OR: 137

100/1

Formerly smart hurdler, a Grade 1 winner in 2014. Pulled up over hurdles on first start for current yard having left Gordon Elliott last month and appears to have it to do at this marathon trip.

Form: P4P-76P

Kansas City Chief^p¹³

Age: 9| Weight: 10-6| J: R T Dunne| T: N P Mulholland| OR: 135

25/1

Former fair Irish chaser who has been campaigned over timber since joining current yard a year ago. Probably stays this trip and represents a shrewd owner, so a market move for this potential dark horse would be well worth noting.

Form: 51220-5

Jennys Surprise¹⁷^{(ex 4)}

Age: 10| Weight: 10-5| J: P J Brennan| T: F O'Brien| OR: 130

25/1

Veteran mare who has won in testing ground at 3m2f but yet to try this longer trip. Has won two of her last four starts and carried 4lb penalty for recent LIngfield success.

Form: 4P122-1

Dawson City¹⁸

Age: 9| Weight: 10-4| J: James Best| T: P Gundry| OR: 133

16/1

Won Devon National in very testing ground last winter off 6lb lower mark, and was noted styaing on well at Kelso last time so may be coming to hand. No forlorn hope.

Form: 3126-F5

Mysteree^p¹⁸

Age: 10| Weight: 10-4| J: Brendan Powell| T: M Scudamore| OR: 133

50/1

Thorough stayer who has won his share of decent marathons but was pulled up in this race 12 months ago where he appeared ill at ease on the track. Hard to see him getting involved despite 5lb lower mark this time.

Form: 12/P3-P0

Holly Bush Henry^p⁸

Age: 7| Weight: 10-4| J: James Bowen| T: P W Middleton| OR: 133

25/1

Fair sort but has yet to tackle a marathon trip and his stamina may well come into question. Handles conditions, but others are preferred despite his light weight.

Form: 256-962

Forecasts

Elegant Escape (3/1), Folsom Blue (7/1), Vintage Clouds (8/1), Ramses De Teillee (10/1), Yala Enki (12/1), Looksnowtlikebrian (12/1), Final Nudge (12/1), Vieux Lion Rouge (12/1), Rons Dream (16/1), Dawson City (16/1), Ballyoptic (20/1), Baie Des Iles (20/1), Raz De Maree (25/1), Kansas City Chief (25/1), Jennys Surprise (25/1), Holly Bush Henry (25/1), Regal Flow (33/1), Vyta Du Roc (33/1), Mysteree (50/1), Lieutenant Colonel (100/1)

Elegant Escape seems sure to go well having run a blinder at Newbury last time and looks fairly handicapped, but in a race where a decent case can be made for the majority of runners FINAL NUDGE is fancied to improve on his good third in this race last year. He goes well fresh and has Sam Twiston-Davies doing the steering. Top weight Ballyoptic is a class act and cannot be ruled out, nor can the likes of Vintage Clouds, Vieux Lion Rouge and Looksnowtlikebrian. Kansas City Chief and Irish raider Folsom Blue are others worth considering.