15:00 Ascot

Friday 5 October 2018

All13:5014:2515:0015:3516:1016:45

Original Harrogate Water Handicap

Off time: 15:01 | Winning time: 1m 12.35s

(10)

Encrypted²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: Josephine Gordon| T: H Palmer| OR: 100| D

10/1

Gained second win of the campaign under today's jockey at Chelmsford penultimately over 6f before narrowly failing to follow up in a 21 runner 5½f handicap. Still improving and return to 6f should see him go very close once again.

Form: 510012

(7)

Tabdeed¹⁰⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 9-3| J: Jim Crowley| T: Owen Burrows| OR: 96| D

6/4

Won first two starts at Leicester and Nottingham over 6f before pitched into the Group Three Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot where he wasn't disgraced (12th of 21). Absence since suggests issues but could easily be better than this handicap mark.

Form: 1-10

(11)

Green Power¹³

Age: 3| Weight: 9-3| J: J Fanning| T: J Gallagher| OR: 96| CD

16/1

C&D winner here in August and followed that up with a good fifth again here off a 3lb higher mark. Bogged down in the mud latest at Ayr so that race best forgotten but course form here very much a positive so enters calculations once more.

Form: 708150

(8)

Abel Handy²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: W Buick| T: D Carroll| OR: 95

10/1

Group Three Cornwallis (5f) one of three two-year-old successes. Not won this season but raced in Group One's a couple of times before dropping to a 5½f handicap latest where he was sixth of 21 (Encrypted second). 6f should suit and respected here.

Form: 1-60606

(3)

Aljady⁶⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: P Hanagan| T: R A Fahey| OR: 93| D

6/1

Won first three starts at Redcar (twice) and Thirsk before coming unstuck at Goodwood when upped to 7f latest. Still open to more improvement in handicaps but not sure the drop back to 6f is ideal given he was doing best work late at Goodwood.

Form: 1-116

(2)

Flavius Titus^t²⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Andrea Atzeni| T: R Varian| OR: 92

14/1

Raced exclusively over 7f this season winning once, at Doncaster. Headed late on in last two starts at Kempton (third) and Leicester (second) so drop to 6f may be ideal. Handicapper keeps up the pressure but arrives in fine form.

Form: 142032

(1)

Whinmoor²²

Age: 3| Weight: 8-13| J: Lewis Edmunds| T: N Tinkler| OR: 92| D

14/1

Completed a four-timer (two 6f, two 7f) when winning at Carlisle and far from disgraced next when the run ended at Doncaster with a fine second over 7f where he was headed late on. Handicap climbs again and now 40lb higher than start of the run.

Form: 011112

(9)

Count Otto^b,h²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 8-12| J: Jason Watson⁽³⁾| T: Mrs A J Perrett| OR: 91| D

11/1

Three-time AW scorer in the Winter ended a barren spell when winning at Newmarket's July course on penultimate start over 6f. Raised 6lb for that but ran well again next when a running on third at Chelmsford so arrives in good order.

Form: 375213

(6)

Missy Mischief²⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-11| J: S De Sousa| T: J Noseda| OR: 90| BF| D

11/1

6f Doncaster novice winner on belated return to action and made an encouraging start to handicapping career next at Chelmsford when a neck second of five. Raised 3lb and this tougher but open to plenty of improvement in just her fifth run.

Form: 59-12

(4)

Lucky Lucky Man¹⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 8-9| J: J P Spencer| T: R A Fahey| OR: 88| D

20/1

Showed liking for heavy ground when winning the Ayr Bronze Cup latest taking his record to two-from-two in such conditions. Won with plenty to spare there so a 5lb rise not overly harsh but very different conditions expected here.

Form: 321481

(5)

Vegas Boy^t⁴⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: Nicola Currie⁽³⁾| T: J A Osborne| OR: 85| D

40/1

Won back-to-back races at Windsor and LIngfield (turf) before flopping at Kempton (last of nine). Won twice on AW previously so that can't be the reason but break since perhaps suggests an issue. Others now more compelling.

Form: 522119

Forecasts

Tabdeed (6/4), Aljady (6/1), Encrypted (10/1), Abel Handy (10/1), Count Otto (11/1), Missy Mischief (11/1), Flavius Titus (14/1), Whinmoor (14/1), Green Power (16/1), Lucky Lucky Man (20/1), Vegas Boy (40/1)

A highly competitive handicap this but ENCRYPTED may be good enough to defy top weight. Hugo Palmer's charge has been a continual improver throughout this season and followed up a Chelmsford win with an excellent second in a big-field handicap latest despite looking like he would enjoy this return to 6f. Tabdeed has to overcome an absence of over three months but he was good enough to contest a Group Three when last seen so should be more than capable at this level. Lightly raced Missy Mischief is another who could easily have plenty more to come.