17:40 Newcastle

Friday 7 September 2018

All13:4014:1514:5015:2516:0016:3517:1017:40

Northumbrian Wateraid Novice Stakes

Off time: 17:47 | Winning time: 1m 0.51s

(6)

Gleaming Arch²⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 9-3| J: P Hanagan| T: F Watson

100/1

Well beaten on both starts on turf (6f-7f) at respective odds of 66/1 and 150/1; no chance whatsoever.

Form: 97

(1)

Borders Dream^p1,t²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: D Allan| T: I Jardine

100/1

Managed to beat just a single rival in three starts so far (6f-7f), and as a consequence makes no appeal in the slightest on AW debut; wears first-time cheekpieces.

Form: 9-58

(5)

Dosc¹⁰⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: D Tudhope| T: D O'Meara

9/4

€85,000 juvenile; runner-up on debut at Yarmouth (6f, good to firm) in May - form modest; absent since for whatever reason (107 days), but open to further improvement in a very winnable novice stakes.

Form: 2

(8)

Hop Maddocks¹²²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: J Mitchell| T: T D Barron| OR: 72

9/4

€32,000 yearling; much more competitive since dropped back in trip, and saw off all bar subsequent winner Militia when finishing runner-up at Thirsk (5f, good to firm) in May; off since (122 days).

Form: 532

(2)

Cape Hill Cotter²⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-11| J: F Norton| T: Mrs A Duffield

20/1

€52,000 yearling; 50/1 on debut at Redcar (7f maiden) last month when finishing a weakening seventh of 10 to Forward Thinker; dropped right back in trip.

Form: 7

(4)

Hula Girl¹¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-11| J: Callum Shepherd| T: C Hills| OR: 72| BF

11/4

Seven-race maiden who isn't necessarily progressing, but equally isn't regressing; raced only over 6f-7f so far, so the drop in trip and AW switch could possibly help; not discounted.

Form: 57-6235

(7)

Spiritofninetysix¹¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-11| J: G Lee| T: B Smart

66/1

£2,000 yearling, and has looked to be light on ability so far; 33/1 when finishing ninth of 11 at Southwell (5f) recently.

Form: 69

Rule 4

Rule 4 applies to all bets - deduction 20p in the pound

Non-Runners

(3)

Thirlmere

Weight: 8-11| Age: 3

T: M Dods J: Callum Rodriguez

Forecasts

Dosc (9/4), Hop Maddocks (9/4), Hula Girl (11/4), Thirlmere (4/1), Cape Hill Cotter (20/1), Spiritofninetysix (66/1), Gleaming Arch (100/1), Borders Dream (100/1)

Both Dosc (debut) and Hop Maddocks displayed promise in finishing second on their latest outings, but plenty of water has flowed under the bridge since then and whilst respected, both horses have fairly lengthy absences to overcome. Hula Girl is fairly exposed, but in truth this isn't a strong finale, so she could be involved over a new trip on this artificial racing surface. However, THIRLMERE has a pedigree which suggests she'll be precocious (and thrive on the AW), and assuming that she can be kept calm in the preliminaries in her hood, could potentially make a winning start for Piercebridge handler Michael Dods.