20:30 Southwell

Tuesday 15 May 2018

All17:3018:0018:3019:0019:3020:0020:30

Betting Offers At bettingodds.com Handicap Hurdle

Off time: 20:30 | Winning time: 6m 15.50s

Mon Palois⁸⁷

Age: 6| Weight: 12-1| J: David Bass| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls| OR: 122| D

3/1

Seems to need good ground to show her best, so last couple of efforts on soft/heavy easily forgiven. Steps down in grade, yard going better after a poor spell and she stays the trip, so there's a bit to like about her chances.

Form: 114450-

Ozzy Thomas^p²⁷

Age: 8| Weight: 12-1| J: Aidan Coleman| T: Henry Oliver| OR: 122| CD

12/1

Another that seems to need decent ground, has rather lost his way over fences but was a 3m winner here in September and simply looks far too well handicapped to ignore now reverting to hurdles. Has to be taken seriously.

Form: 1F123P-

Muthabir²¹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-12| J: Conor Shoemark| T: R T Phillips| OR: 119| C| D

20/1

Kempton winner over this trip last November but handicapper gave a him a kick for that and he's found life harder ever since. Slowly coming back down the weights but in no great form and others preferred.

Form: 431054-

Affaire D'Honneur¹⁹

Age: 7| Weight: 11-10| J: B S Hughes| T: K Frost| OR: 117

28/1

Has too many disappointing efforts on his card for maximum faith in him, but he's slipping to an attractive looking mark now and shaped a little better than the bare result at Warwick. Very risky, but hard to rule out totally.

Form: 5P34/58-

The New Pharaoh¹⁷

Age: 7| Weight: 11-9| J: Adam Wedge| T: Laura Morgan| OR: 116

22/1

Wore down the useful Banjo Girl to win at Leicester in January and has been highly tried since then. Takes a big drop in grade here but this trip a total step into the unknown and on that, he's passed over today.

Form: 3150-

Lough Salt²¹

Age: 7| Weight: 11-8| J: S Bowen| T: R C Guest| OR: 115| D

16/1

Did come good at Wetherby in a better race than tonight's last year, and now only 1lb higher, so nothing wrong with his mark. Inconsistent efforts since and needs to put a moderate effort last time out behind, but not discounted.

Form: 0/16520-

Laugharne³⁰

Age: 7| Weight: 11-6| J: David Noonan| T: Tim Vaughan| OR: 113| D

6/1

Good effort at Ascot in a better race than this and then possibly unlucky to bump into the well-treated Solomn Grundy at Ffos Las last time. Nudged up a couple of pounds but stays well and in form, so obvious chances.

Form: P77/452-

Frozen Flame²¹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-4| J: R P McLernon| T: J & A O'Neill| OR: 111

8/1

Made up plenty of ground late on his handicap debut at Huntingdon to finish fourth, a much better effort and but for a late blunder may have gone close to winning. With improvement likely, he looks one of the main players here.

Form: 2/6454-

Hoke Colburn²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 11-4| J: Harry Bannister| T: H Whittington| OR: 111| C

20/1

Both his wins have come here, which is a plus, but other than that it's a series of very moderate efforts and hopes are rather pinned on a return to this venue. Others readily preferred.

Form: 35/P16P-

Notnow Seamus^h1,t1³⁴⁷

Age: 7| Weight: 11-1| J: Harry Skelton| T: D Skelton| OR: 108

5/2

First start for in-form yard, not seen for almost a year but was a good winner at Kelso over slightly shorter last May and likely to do better. Plenty will fancy his chances coming from a hot yard, but this is a tough race.

Form: 24524/1-

Mickieblueeyes^t⁷⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 11-0| J: Jack Sherwood⁽³⁾| T: Mrs D Grissell| OR: 107

12/1

Found his form when upped in trip and given good ground to beat Fizzlestix easily, form that has been franked a few times since. 12lb higher here but may well have more to come, and just another to consider in a very hot race for the money.

Form: 17/6941-

Forecasts

Notnow Seamus (5/2), Mon Palois (3/1), Laugharne (6/1), Frozen Flame (8/1), Ozzy Thomas (12/1), Mickieblueeyes (12/1), Lough Salt (16/1), Hoke Colburn (20/1), Muthabir (20/1), The New Pharaoh (22/1), Affaire D'Honneur (28/1)

A very difficult race to close out on, and plenty of these hold some sort of chance. At the foot of the handicap, MICKIEBLUEEYES makes plenty of appeal, as he improved plenty for the step up in trip last time and won with a bit in hand. With the second and third winning since then, the form looks solid and he can defy the weight rise. Frozen Flame would have gone close at Huntingdon but for a mistake at a crucial time, and will surely pick up a contest of this nature soon. Ozzy Thomas cannot be ignored from his low-looking mark and neither can Lough Salt.