16:35 Ffos Las

Sunday 1 April 2018

All14:2514:5515:2516:0016:3517:10

Siddell Environmental Services West Wales National Handicap Chase

Off time: 16:37 | Winning time: 8m 0.1s

Pobbles Bay⁴⁹

Age: 8| Weight: 11-12| J: Adam Wedge| T: Evan Williams| OR: 138| C

12/1

Showed good form as a novice last season but yet to really build on that so far this campaign, and top weight looks to be a big ask in this competitive affair.

Form: 115-974

Harry Topper^p²²

Age: 11| Weight: 11-8| J: David Bass| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls| OR: 134| BF

10/1

Seems to have had his issues having had only seven starts in the past four years. Conditions shouldn't be an issue and certainly slipping to an appealing handicap mark.

Form: 5/P44-2P

Henri Parry Morgan^b1,t⁴⁹

Age: 10| Weight: 11-7| J: S Bowen| T: P & M Bowen| OR: 133

6/1

Very well-treated on his best form, but is yet to show his best at any further than 3m and could be outstayed here. Blinkers on for the first time.

Form: 69-2U5P

Pressurize¹⁷

Age: 12| Weight: 11-5| J: Miss Lucy Turner⁽⁷⁾| T: Miss V Williams| OR: 131

12/1

All wins over shorter than this and has plenty to prove having been beaten 26L on his first attempt at a marathon trip at Cheltenham last time out.

Form: 4P-1P57

Bob Ford^b1¹⁵

Age: 11| Weight: 11-4| J: T J O'Brien| T: Dr R D P Newland| OR: 130| CD

5/1

Has failed to complete on his last two starts but should find this a more appropriate test, and he goes on all types of ground. Blinkers are fitted for the first time.

Form: 4P-15FP

Jennys Surprise⁴²

Age: 10| Weight: 11-3| J: P J Brennan| T: F O'Brien| OR: 129| C

8/1

A course winner last time in similar conditions to this. Slightly harsh that she's been raised 7lb and this is now a career-high mark, but she arrives here in good form and is respected.

Form: 4U-14P1

Shotgun Paddy³⁷

Age: 11| Weight: 11-2| J: Patrick Cowley⁽⁵⁾| T: Miss E C Lavelle| OR: 128

9/2

A fine second over a marathon trip at Exeter last time (in the Devon National). Has run with merit in a number of these types of races this season and remains on a fair mark.

Form: P-55P62

Misty Mai²²

Age: 8| Weight: 10-5| J: James Bowen⁽³⁾| T: D A Rees| OR: 117| C

10/1

Impressive winner in an easier race at Hereford last time. Up 9lb which may be the undoing of her here, though she does at least have previous course form.

Form: 521651

Brownville^p,t³⁷

Age: 9| Weight: 10-5| J: Sam Twiston-Davies| T: N & W Twiston-Davies| OR: 117

14/1

Fair staying handicap chaser but beaten a long way in an easier race at Warwick last time (off 2lb higher), though it's questionable if he'd want the ground this testing (has won on soft though).

Form: 46-15P4

West Wizard^p,t¹⁷

Age: 9| Weight: 10-1| J: James Best| T: Mrs S Leech| OR: 113| C

12/1

Showed promise at one point, but both of his wins over obstacles came over considerably shorter than this. Though he seems to stay this far he's been well-beaten on all his most recent starts.

Form: P65438

Cailleach Annie^t⁹¹

Age: 9| Weight: 10-1| J: David Noonan| T: Miss J Du Plessis| OR: 113

8/1

Winner of a weaker race at Uttoxeter last time out but a 9lb rise up the weights won't make this particularly easy, and she also has stamina to prove over this trip.

Form: 753-341

Lac Sacre^b,t¹⁰

Age: 9| Weight: 10-0| J: Brendan Powell| T: J L Flint| OR: 107| BF| C

20/1

Not the easiest to win with recently, and has finished second on his last three starts. That level of form would not be sufficient for him to go close here.

Form: 663222

Forecasts

Shotgun Paddy (9/2), Bob Ford (5/1), Henri Parry Morgan (6/1), Jennys Surprise (8/1), Cailleach Annie (8/1), Misty Mai (10/1), Harry Topper (10/1), Pressurize (12/1), Pobbles Bay (12/1), West Wizard (12/1), Brownville (14/1), Lac Sacre (20/1)

As is often the case this looks likely to be run in very testing conditions, so it could pay to side with a horse with proven form in similar contests to this. SHOTGUN PADDY may have gone under the radar somewhat this campaign, but he finished a fine second in the Devon National last time and could easily go very close this off 4lb higher. In his younger days he won the Warwick Classic Chase off 145, and though he's not quite at that level now he retains enough ability to run well here. Harry Topper has had his issues but would have a chance at this best, while this looks a suitable race for Bob Ford.