19:30 Chelmsford City

Thursday 25 January 2018

All17:5518:3019:0019:3020:0020:3021:00

Bet toteexacta At betfred.com Handicap

Off time: 19:32 | Winning time: 3m 32.0s

(7)

Milord^v¹⁵

Age: 9| Weight: 10-2| J: Patrick Vaughan⁽⁷⁾| T: K Bailey & M Nicholls| OR: 72

16/1

Better known as a hurdler, and yet to win on the Flat in England (twice for former yard in Germany), never threatened at Kempton over half a mile shorter last time but yard in good form now and this trip will suit. Has to be respected.

Form: 0641/8-8

(6)

Fitzwilly¹⁵

Age: 8| Weight: 9-13| J: Paddy Bradley⁽⁵⁾| T: M R Channon| OR: 69| D

8/1

Middling effort last time out but had previously gone very close over C&D, and only 2lb higher here. Inconsistency is hos problem, and doesn't win many as a result, so for win purposes, others make more appeal.

Form: 75732-3

(2)

Smiley Bagel²²

Age: 5| Weight: 9-9| J: L P Keniry| T: E Walker| OR: 65

16/1

Falling in the handicap after a few moderate efforts, may have needed latest run after almost a six month break but showed little and takes a big step up in trip here as well. All looks a bit too much to ask.

Form: 16878-0

(3)

Excellent Puck³⁰

Age: 8| Weight: 9-8| J: Callum Shepherd⁽⁵⁾| T: S Lycett| OR: 64

9/1

Got to go back to 2015 for his last win, although has a smattering of placings to his name since then and often runs okay, but this trip is the sticking point - three runs at it have seen him well beaten. On that, others readily preferred.

Form: 553243-

(1)

Alternate Route^b²⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 9-6| J: A Kirby| T: Sir Mark Prescott| OR: 67| BF| D

6/4

Winner at Lingfield (in a lower grade) over this trip last September, but some mixed efforts since then and looked a bit reluctant at Southwell last time out, hanging badly. Beaten favourite too many times for comfort now and others preferred.

Form: 21632-4

(5)

Mambo Dancer¹⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 9-4| J: J Fanning| T: C & M Johnston| OR: 65| D

6/4

Made all when stepped up to 2m last time out, making his own pace and quickening off it. Handicapper sensible with just a 2lb rise, may well have more to offer and the others simply can't allow him too much rope.

Form: 75300-1

(4)

Lady Clitico^p¹⁴

Age: 7| Weight: 9-2| J: P J McDonald| T: R Menzies| OR: 58| D

33/1

Stays this trip but a poor overall strike rate, and record on artificial surfaces leaves plenty to be desired as well. Well beaten last two starts and can't really be entertained as a likely winner.

Form: 51409-6

Forecasts

Alternate Route (6/4), Mambo Dancer (6/4), Fitzwilly (8/1), Excellent Puck (9/1), Milord (16/1), Smiley Bagel (16/1), Lady Clitico (33/1)

This looks at the mercy of MAMBO DANCER, who came good at Newcastle last time, making all the running, and it's not difficult to see a similar scenario unfolding here. We know how tough Mark Johnston horses are to pass when allowed an easy time on the front, and the follow-up looks likely. Alternate Route would look the forecast option on paper, but he may not be straightforward and preference is for Milord, from a yard going well at present and might find this a bit easier.