15:35 Ascot

Saturday 23 December 2017

All12:4013:1513:5014:2515:0015:35

Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Off time: 15:36 | Winning time: 3m 48.65s

Elgin³⁴

Age: 5| Weight: 11-12| J: Wayne Hutchinson| T: A King| OR: 151| CD

13/2

Produced a career best to land the Greatwood and a 6lb rise seems fair. No horse has defied this mark to land this in the past and that gives a clear indicator to the magnitude of the task he faces here.

Form: 227-411

Divin Bere²⁶¹

Age: 4| Weight: 11-9| J: Bryony Frost⁽⁵⁾| T: P F Nicholls| OR: 148| D

16/1

Beat Mr Blueyes at Huntingdon and looked a handicap snip in the Fred Winter but found one too good. Ran Defi du Seuil to 1½L at Aintree subsequently so potentially well treated again, although better ground is said to suit.

Form: 12/2122-

Air Horse One²¹

Age: 6| Weight: 11-8| J: N D Fehily| T: H Fry| OR: 147| BF| C

10/1

Fourth in the County Hurdle in March and weighted to turn the tables with Elgin on November running here. Good effort last in defeat last time should have him spot on for this.

Form: 1140-43

Chesterfield³⁴

Age: 7| Weight: 11-7| J: Daniel Sansom⁽⁷⁾| T: J W Mullins| OR: 146| D

16/1

Mid-division in this 12 months ago and 12lb higher having improved during the spring to land two races including the Scottish Champion Hurdle. Never a threat in the Greatwood on return a month ago and he needs to step up appreciably on that.

Form: 80211-0

Charli Parcs²¹

Age: 4| Weight: 11-7| J: Aidan Coleman| T: N J Henderson| OR: 146| D

7/1

Entered Triumph Hurdle calculations with an emphatic victory last Christmas. Things did not go according to plan thereafter but he was reported in good order prior to his return three weeks ago. Stable do well in this race and he is the one to beat.

Form: 11F6-2

Bleu Et Rouge²⁰

Age: 6| Weight: 11-7| J: B J Geraghty| T: W P Mullins| OR: 146| D

7/1

Useful novice hurdler two seasons ago who did not take to fences last term. Failed to meet market expectations last time, but represents powerful connections and rider retains faith in him.

Form: F5/1U4-0

Verdana Blue²⁹

Age: 5| Weight: 11-5| J: N de Boinville| T: N J Henderson| OR: 144| CD

5/1

Was a close fourth to Let's Dance in the mares novice hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last season and beat a prolific winner here last time. Will be suited by the test this race offers and the yard have won this with similarly progressive types.

Form: 1143-51

Fergall^p¹⁴²

Age: 10| Weight: 11-1| J: Kevin Jones⁽⁵⁾| T: J W Mullins| OR: 140| D

25/1

Third in this 12 months ago and 4lb higher here. Off the track since Galway in August but goes well fresh. However, this is a race where younger horses normally prevail and he is fully weighted.

Form: 47/43-F7

Top Othe Ra²⁰

Age: 9| Weight: 10-12| J: D J Mullins| T: T Mullins| OR: 137| D

33/1

Had his limitations exposed last time and looks vulnerable again off his current mark. This race usually goes to younger less exposed types so he is readily passed over.

Form: 126110

Caid Du Lin^p,t¹⁴

Age: 5| Weight: 10-12| J: Charlie Hammond⁽⁷⁾| T: Dr R D P Newland| OR: 137

25/1

Much improved run last time will raise hopes he can reverse November placings with Elgin. Softer ground is a concern and he looks more exposed than previous winners.

Form: 231722

Nietzsche^h³⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 10-10| J: Henry Brooke| T: B Ellison| OR: 135| D

28/1

Close third in the Fred Winter in March and ran well on return in the Greatwood. Was fit from the Flat that day so unlikely he has the improvement necessary to play a more prominent role.

Form: 13113-6

Silver Streak⁷⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 10-5| J: Mitchell Bastyan⁽⁵⁾| T: Evan Williams| OR: 130| D

8/1

Turned the tables round with a few when impressing on his comeback. May have a lot more to offer despite an 8lb rise, but he would not want the ground to be too testing so conditions will need checking.

Form: 32114-1

Veinard^t²⁰

Age: 8| Weight: 10-4| J: D F O'Regan| T: G Elliott| OR: 129

14/1

A 1-21 record does not inspire confidence for an event such as this but he is the sole representative of a trainer with a 2-4 record in the race. Sixth in the Betfair last year and trainer clearly believes he has a decent handicap in him.

Form: 626-488

Hunters Call¹³⁵

Age: 7| Weight: 10-3| J: Jack Kennedy| T: O Murphy| OR: 128| D

9/1

Irish import without a win for two years whose chances depend on how much improvement this trainer can produce. First run since August and he does not fit the profile of the type that wins this.

Form: 639-453

Evening Hush¹⁴

Age: 4| Weight: 10-3| J: Conor Ring⁽³⁾| T: Evan Williams| OR: 128

50/1

Highly tried last season after Aintree Listed success in December although she managed to finish second in a Grade One. Little promise in her comeback run and others preferred.

Form: 12205-0

Magic Dancer^p,t³⁶

Age: 5| Weight: 10-0| J: R Patrick⁽⁵⁾| T: Kerry Lee| OR: 124| D

9/1

Winner of a conditionals race at Kempton and escaped a penalty when following up at Cheltenham the same week. Up 12lb but clearly a much improved horse since joining this yard and getting his head together.

Form: 29-7211

Man Of Plenty^t,v¹⁴

Age: 8| Weight: 10-0| J: Sean Houlihan⁽⁷⁾| T: Mrs S Leech| OR: 123| D

40/1

Usually runs his race but his level of performance leaves him a long way short of what is required to land this.

Form: 422325

Forecasts

Verdana Blue (5/1), Elgin (13/2), Bleu Et Rouge (7/1), Charli Parcs (7/1), Silver Streak (8/1), Hunters Call (9/1), Magic Dancer (9/1), Air Horse One (10/1), Veinard (14/1), Chesterfield (16/1), Divin Bere (16/1), Caid Du Lin (25/1), Fergall (25/1), Nietzsche (28/1), Top Othe Ra (33/1), Man Of Plenty (40/1), Evening Hush (50/1)

Nicky Henderson has a strong record in this and has two viable options in CHARLI PARCS and Verdana Blue. The former Triumph Hurdle favourite is preferred as he represents a year group that do well in this event and last year's defeat of Mister Blueyes has him on a mark that should be productive. The Greatwood winner Elgin will have to produce an astonishing weight carrying performance to land this, but Air Horse One goes well in this type of race and is weighted to go close. Bleu Et Rouge is worth checking in the market along with fellow Irish raider Veinard, but Divin Bere and Silver Streak may want better ground.