15:10 Ascot

Friday 6 October 2017

All14:0014:3515:1015:4516:2016:55

Original Harrogate Water Handicap

Off time: 15:15 | Winning time: 1m 15.57s

(11)

Bacchus⁴⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: A Kirby| T: B J Meehan| OR: 105| D

8/1

Drop back to 6f recently seems to have sparked a bit of improvement, and she just held off Dakota Gold at Newmarket (has run well since) when last seen. 5lb rise for that is enough but this ground ideal, and obvious chances again.

Form: 139531

(2)

Ekhtiyaar⁸⁵

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: Jim Crowley| T: R Varian| OR: 100| D

9/4

Has been running with great consistency this year and continued his progression with another hard-fought win at Newmarket last time. All tracks and ground seems to come alike, so has plenty going for him again here, and looks one for the shortlist.

Form: 21-2151

(14)

Ultimate Avenue^t⁴¹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: J P Spencer| T: E Walker| OR: 100| BF

8/1

Slight concern that he's twice been taken out on account of cut in the ground, so needs it to continue drying out. Seemed not to handle the track when beaten at Goodwood last time and chances on previous Newmarket effort.

Form: 316-339

(1)

Victory Angel⁶⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: S De Sousa| T: R Varian| OR: 99| D

16/1

Did the job nicely at Yarmouth when last seen, winning with plenty in hand, although a 9lb rise from the handicapper means that he needs more in what looks a tougher race. Clearly not discounted, but may not represent much in the way of value.

Form: 1-18001

(10)

Nobly Born^b1²⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-12| J: L Dettori| T: J & T Gosden| OR: 96| D

9/1

Won a little event at Yarmouth in the summer but hasn't really gone on from that, in truth, and was very disappointing when last seen. Blinkers given a try now, but it looks more in hope, and he comes with plenty of risks now.

Form: 12-3446

(3)

Merlin²⁰

Age: 3| Weight: 8-11| J: R L Moore| T: M L W Bell| OR: 95| D

8/1

Has a bit of ground to make up with Bacchus on their Newmarket form, but didn't run badly over a trip slightly shorter at Doncaster last time and return to this trip will help. Goes on most ground and chances if getting an easy lead.

Form: 112138

(6)

Smokey Lane¹¹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-8| J: J Fanning| T: Christian Williams| OR: 92| D

33/1

Handles the heavy ground better than a few when second to Soie D'Leau at Leicester last time out and looks nicely treated on the best of his form. Step back up to 6f ideal as well and he could run well at a likely big price.

Form: 700452

(12)

Dark Power^t⁴⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: David Probert| T: C G Cox| OR: 90| BF| D

12/1

Looked most progressive when taking contests at Nottingham and Leicester in the summer and lost little in defeat when beaten at Newmarket last time out. Trip and likely ground ideal and may not have finished improving yet.

Form: 21-5118

(4)

Waqaas⁵⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: Tom Marquand| T: C Hills| OR: 90| D

50/1

Has had some training issues and has only seen a racecourse twice this year. Not really done much to suggest he's up to taking a hand in such a competitive contest and others readily preferred.

Form: 6214-05

(13)

Repton²⁷

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: Hollie Doyle⁽³⁾| T: R Hannon| OR: 90

33/1

Has been highly tried over the past twelve months and may find this slightly easier, but has fallen a long way down the handicap due to some very moderate efforts. Close sixth over C&D the straw to cling to if he's to hold a chance here.

Form: 580-608

(8)

Silent Echo^h⁴⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 8-6| J: Harry Bentley| T: H & R Charlton| OR: 90

10/1

Threw a stinker in at York in July but mainly solid efforts around that, although has ground to make up with a couple of these on Newmarket form last time out and may be happier at 7f rather than 6.

Form: 7-1164

(7)

Parnassian⁴⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 8-3| J: M Dwyer| T: Mrs A J Perrett| OR: 87| D

33/1

A winner in lesser company at Windsor in July but done little since then to suggest he's going the right way, and may simply find this too tough. Others readily preferred.

Form: 3-02140

(9)

The Feathered Nest^p⁶⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 8-2| J: P Hanagan| T: R A Fahey| OR: 86| D

7/1

Steadily progressive for much of the past year, and continued that progression with a gutsy win at Newmarket last time out. Only put up a couple of pounds for that, and good attitude will always mean he has a chance. Trip and likely ground ideal.

Form: 6-42331

Non-Runners

(5)

Stanhope¹⁶

Weight: 8-2| Age: 3

T: M Quinn J: Non Runner

Forecasts

Ekhtiyaar (9/4), The Feathered Nest (7/1), Bacchus (8/1), Ultimate Avenue (8/1), Merlin (8/1), Nobly Born (9/1), Silent Echo (10/1), Dark Power (12/1), Stanhope (12/1), Victory Angel (16/1), Repton (33/1), Smokey Lane (33/1), Parnassian (33/1), Waqaas (50/1)

Merlin and Stanhope should ensure this is run at a solid gallop, and that should suit the improving EKTIYAAR , doing little wrong at present and might have more to come. The Feathered Nest is still at the right end of the handicap and she's the sort that will run through a brick wall to win. She holds every chance of getting in the frame again, as should Bacchus and Victory Angel.