19:40 Kempton

Wednesday 4 October 2017

All17:4018:1018:4019:1019:4020:1020:4021:10

32Red Handicap

Off time: 19:43 | Winning time: 1m 37.59s

(12)

Belgian Bill³²

Age: 9| Weight: 9-7| J: P Cosgrave| T: George Baker| OR: 95| C| D

33/1

Talented performer, but has had a relatively light campaign since returning from Dubai in February. Contested the Royal Hunt Cup (21st) in June, and finished fifth of eight in a Turkish Group 2 (1m2f) latest. Better back on the AW over this trip.

Form: 334095

(7)

Manson^p¹⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-6| J: James Doyle| T: D J S Ffrench Davis| OR: 94| C| D

12/1

Never involved after a slow start at Sandown latest (1m good), but a line should be drawn under that effort. His previous 2+L third to Mustashry at Chelmsford in August (1m) gives him fair claims from an identical mark.

Form: 4-73530

(13)

Big Baz¹⁸

Age: 7| Weight: 9-6| J: K Shoemark| T: W R Muir| OR: 94| CD

8/1

His strike rate on the AW (40%) is fairly impressive, and he won at Listed level (rated 108) on his last attempt over C&D in November 2015. He hasn't quite made his mark in some tough contests this year, but is becoming well treated.

Form: 950635

(9)

Mr Bossy Boots¹⁹

Age: 6| Weight: 9-6| J: R Kingscote| T: Mrs A J Perrett| OR: 94| C

33/1

Has done the bulk of his racing on synthetics, and is a six time winner from 18 starts on the AW. However, all of those victories have come over 7f, and his three most recent efforts haven't really suggested that his turn is near.

Form: 33-2009

(11)

Early Morning²⁵

Age: 6| Weight: 9-6| J: A Kirby| T: H J L Dunlop| OR: 94| CD

25/1

Effective at this track from much lower marks earlier in his career (C&D winner in April 2015), but has struggled in competitive Ascot handicaps (Hunt Cup etc) since a promising start to the season at Haydock in April (1m good to firm).

Form: 27-2080

(4)

Gossiping^p²⁵

Age: 5| Weight: 9-6| J: S W Kelly| T: G & J Moore| OR: 94| CD

12/1

Has progressed all year winning five times since the turn of the year, including twice over C&D. He hasn't quite recaptured the form of his impressive Goodwood success in May (7f) lately, but he's been in deep and this looks more suitable.

Form: 117000

(5)

Brigliadoro³⁸

Age: 6| Weight: 9-6| J: David Probert| T: P J McBride| OR: 94| C| D

10/1

Fought off the challenge of Mountain Angel and Glory Awaits to take a 1m class 3 Yarmouth handicap by a neck in August, and that represented a career best effort. A dual 7f course winner, so claims from just a 1lb higher mark.

Form: 522041

(14)

Brilliant Vanguard^p²⁵

Age: 4| Weight: 9-5| J: K Stott| T: K A Ryan| OR: 93| CD

6/1

Notched a hat-trick when breaking his AW duck over C&D in early September (beat The Warrior by ½L). Raised another 4lb which appears fair, but the draw could have been much kinder as he sets off in pursuit of the four timer.

Form: 824111

(1)

Replenish⁹⁷

Age: 4| Weight: 9-5| J: George Wood⁽³⁾| T: J R Fanshawe| OR: 93| C| D

10/1

Proved himself a useful AW performer across most surfaces, but remains 9lb above his last winning mark (1m at Newcastle in June 2016). Not over-raced in 2017, with just three starts, but is returning from a short break tonight (off since late June).

Form: 733-368

(2)

Don't Give Up^p1²⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: Oisin Murphy| T: S bin Suroor| OR: 95| BF| C

3/1

Firmly on the up, having won twice in just four career starts. He appears strongest over 1m2f, with his rare below par Haydock effort possibly attributable to soft ground. Unbeaten at this track (7f) and races in the first time cheek-pieces tonight.

Form: 1217

(8)

Eagle Creek²⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-4| J: Andrea Atzeni| T: S & E Crisford| OR: 95| D

5/1

Lightly raced, and a winner on his sole start on the AW (Lingfield maiden, April 2017). Returned from a break with a fair runners up effort at Pontefract in August (1m good) but didn't get home in soft ground (led) at Ascot latest.

Form: 5-1927

(3)

Omran³²

Age: 3| Weight: 9-2| J: Daniel Muscutt| T: M Botti| OR: 93

20/1

Evidently stronger on the AW than on turf (2 from 3 on synthetics). Feasibly needed the return from a six week break at Chelmsford last month (7f), and dropped 4lb since. However, looks vulnerable over this trip.

Form: 416080

(6)

Kentuckyconnection³⁹

Age: 4| Weight: 9-2| J: G Lee| T: B Smart| OR: 90

25/1

Runner up to Constantino in the 1m Seaton Delaval handicap at Newcastle in June, and now 2lb lower despite just the sole start since. Unexposed on the AW, but it's a worry that he's not won since his juvenile days (debut) in 2015.

Form: 8-50520

(10)

Sultan Baybars³⁸

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: David Egan⁽³⁾| T: R Varian| OR: 91| C

25/1

Course winner on debut in September 2016 (7f maiden), and recorded a couple of fairly useful runner up efforts at Sandown in July. However, both of those races were over 7f, and he was found wanting late on, so stamina is a concern over this trip.

Form: 3-70226

Forecasts

Don't Give Up (3/1), Eagle Creek (5/1), Brilliant Vanguard (6/1), Big Baz (8/1), Brigliadoro (10/1), Replenish (10/1), Gossiping (12/1), Manson (12/1), Omran (20/1), Sultan Baybars (25/1), Kentuckyconnection (25/1), Early Morning (25/1), Belgian Bill (33/1), Mr Bossy Boots (33/1)

An ultra competitive 1m handicap in which the four timer seeking Brilliant Vanguard will have to be at his very best in order to continue the winning run from the widest berth of all (stall 14). Many of these horses (most notably Belgian Bill and Early Morning) will appreciate a slight drop in grade and a return to the AW after contesting races such as the Royal Hunt Cup earlier in the year, whilst Manson could feasibly out run his projected odds if back to the form of his Chelmsford third to Mustashry and Masham Star. However, the trio to concentrate upon could well be Don't Give Up, Brigliadoro and BIG BAZ. The selection is becoming seriously well treated from a mark of 94 these days, having tasted success on his last attempt over C&D at Listed level in November 2015 (when rated 108).