19:25 Newmarket

Friday 18 August 2017

All17:2017:5018:2018:5019:2519:55

Fly London Southend Airport To Budapest Handicap

Off time: 19:26 | Winning time: 2m 10.00s

(6)

Estrella Eria^h¹⁰

Age: 4| Weight: 10-1| J: Joshua Bryan⁽⁵⁾| T: G Peckham| OR: 71| D

8/1

Completed a four-timer at Chelmsford in April, but seems to have found her handicap ceiling since with two tame efforts. On the same mark as when finishing fourth last time and needs to take her form to a new level in order to have a say here.

Form: 111-144

(8)

Hard Toffee⁷

Age: 6| Weight: 9-13| J: Robert Tart| T: C Allen| OR: 69

9/1

Won a decent Goodwood handicap last year (1m3f, good), but hasn't been able to maintain the same level of form since despite now being back down below that winning mark. Better needed than a 6L defeat last time, though he may have had ground-related excuses.

Form: 48-8455

(7)

Duchy¹⁶

Age: 4| Weight: 9-13| J: Danny Brock| T: M L W Bell| OR: 69

18/1

Not bad form in maidens but hasn't been able to build on that since switching to handicap company, though another 3lb drop is a positive. This trip arguably too far for her.

Form: 64/6-56

(9)

Seven Clans^b¹⁷

Age: 5| Weight: 9-9| J: J P Spencer| T: N P Mulholland| OR: 65

6/1

In fine form so far this season, including two solid efforts over this trip the last twice. 7lb lower on the turf than on the all-weather and this top jockey is booked for the first time.

Form: 602-123

(2)

Stepney⁴

Age: 3| Weight: 9-7| J: Tom Marquand| T: R Brisland| OR: 70

8/1

Winner of a Wolverhampton maiden in April (1m4f, standard), but has looked too high in the handicap since switching to this sphere. Down in trip and on turf for the first time, but is given no further help from the handicapper.

Form: 2153

(4)

Bartholomew J⁴⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-5| J: Simon Pearce⁽³⁾| T: Mrs L Pearce| OR: 68| D

9/1

Very good second at Yarmouth last time, in what was his best effort to date. Up 2lb now but should be capable of going close if running to the same level now.

Form: 151262

(3)

Time To Sea¹⁶

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: S De Sousa| T: J Butler| OR: 64

2/1

Form has leveled off somewhat recently but had previous hinted at the ability to win a maiden such as this. Possibly better over shorter but would hold claims if arriving here in his best form.

Form: 775453

(1)

Bombero^p¹⁰^{(ex 6)}

Age: 3| Weight: 9-1| J: Callum Shepherd⁽³⁾| T: E De Giles| OR: 58| D

7/1

Career best on heavy ground at Nottingham last time to get off the mark at the fifth attempt. More needed shouldering a 6lb penalty, and has something to prove on faster ground given his previous record.

Form: 97871

(5)

London Master²⁹

Age: 3| Weight: 9-0| J: Sebastian Woods⁽⁷⁾| T: C F Wall| OR: 63

10/1

Dead-heated on his seasonal reappearance and handicap debut, but not so good since having been raised 5lb. Drop back in trip a positive, as is the useful 7lb his apprentice rider claims, but he still may well come up short.

Form: 989-155

Forecasts

Time To Sea (2/1), Seven Clans (6/1), Bombero (7/1), Stepney (8/1), Estrella Eria (8/1), Hard Toffee (9/1), Bartholomew J (9/1), London Master (10/1), Duchy (18/1)

SEVEN CLANS has been in very good form so far this year, having placed on each of his three starts and winning one of those, and now racing off a lower mark on the turf than the all-weather. He's not necessarily massively weaker on this surface and the booking of Jamie Spencer for the first time is a positive. He is taken to get the better of Bartholomew J, who put in a career-best effort at Yarmouth last time, and Time To Sea, who needs to prove he stays this far but holds leading claims if doing so.