14:40 Southwell

Tuesday 28 March 2017

All14:1014:4015:1015:4016:1016:4017:10

grandnational2017.com Handicap Chase

  • 5YO plus  |   Class 4  |   2m 7f 209y  |   Good (Good to Soft in places)  |   6 Runners  |   Turf  |   Weighed In
  • Off time: 14:40  |   Winning time: 6m 15.80s
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Cloth number
Odds
Horse A-Z
Show odds
1
Horse silk
Azert De Coeur15
Age: 7|  Weight: 12-1| J: Charlie Deutsch(3)| T: Miss V Williams| OR:  112
9/2
Winner at Chepstow in November but well beaten on both completed starts since. Yet to prove he stays this far and pedigree suggests it will be a struggle. Still respected for a yard that are 5-18 with chasers here over past five seasons.
2
Horse silk
Duke Arcadio78
Age: 8|  Weight: 12-0| J: L P Aspell| T: O Sherwood| OR:  111
7/2
Looked a ready made future winner when running a huge race his reappearance when just collared by a fitter rival. Has been a huge disappointment since and current form of stable (1-20 in March) is a concern.
3
Horse silk
Amiral Collongesp34
Age: 7|  Weight: 11-12| J: W Featherstone(5)| T: H J Evans| OR:  109
7/1
Runner-up in the Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day but has struggled since. Stable are without a winner since July.
4
Horse silk
Dawnieriverp109
Age: 7|  Weight: 11-11| J: T Scudamore| T: M Scudamore| OR:  108
10/3
Only 7lb higher than when beating a subsequent winner 49L in October. Highly tried in two starts since and this represents an easier opportunity. Stable are in form (4-15 last 28 days). Off the track 109 days but has run well when fresh previously.
5
Horse silk
Make Me A Fortunep11
Age: 9|  Weight: 11-7| J: Aidan Coleman| T: S Gollings| OR:  104
6/1
Has been somewhat inconsistent since his last win two years ago. That was over hurdles and and remains unconvincing as a chaser. Jockey booking catches the eye and stable had an overdue winner last week.
6
Horse silk
Fly Home Harryp63
Age: 8|  Weight: 11-7| J: R Johnson| T: G A Swinbank| OR:  104
5/1
Had his limitations exposed at Leicester last time but is unbeaten in two C&D runs. Has been given a break since and goes well when fresh. Handicap mark will test him but booking of champion jockey signals intent.

Forecasts

Dawnieriver (10/3), Duke Arcadio (7/2), Azert De Coeur (9/2), Fly Home Harry (5/1), Make Me A Fortune (6/1), Amiral Collonges (7/1)

Verdict

Strong cases can be made for and against all these. Preference is for DAWNIERIVER who looks well treated on the form which saw her complete a hat-trick of wins in 2016. She has not been disgraced in two starts since and with the stable going well she is selected to take this at the expense of C&D specialist Fly Home Harry. Alan Swinbank's charge had been given a break following a disappointing run last time. He goes well fresh and the manner of his two victories here could suggest he had more in hand than the official margins suggest. Azert De Coeur represents a yard going well that have an impressive strike rate here. His pedigree suggests he could struggle with the trip but he would have claims in this grade if proving otherwise.
  1. Dawnieriver
  2. Fly Home Harry
  3. Azert De Coeur

Prize Money

1st: £4,549.002nd: £1,336.003rd: £668.004th: £334.00

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