York tips: Best value bets for Ebor Festival on Thursday August 19
Ebor Festival tips: Thursday, August 19
1pt win Ascension in 3.00 York at 18/1 (General) - NON-RUNNER
1pt win Pythagoras in 3.00 York at 18/1 (General) - NON-RUNNER
1pt win Whitefeathersfall in 4.10 York at 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
SL PRICE BOOST: Enhanced odds on Wonderful Tonight in the Yorkshire Oaks
All White on the night for Johnston juvenile
One race that really appeals from a betting perspective at York today is the OR8Wellness EBF Stallions Nursery Handicap in which William Haggas will likely field the favourite in Maglev.
The fairly expensive breeze-up purchase still has a bunch of Group-race entries for the autumn, including the Dewhurst, and a mark of 91 isn’t too harsh on the balance of his form. His half-brother Acklam Express won a Listed race at this meeting as a juvenile and he’s likely to sit in behind the leaders before trying to pounce late.
At the odds I’m inclined to take him on with something ridden closer to the pace which leads me to WHITEFEATHERSFALL who had led or disputed on his first three starts before having no real chance of doing so from stall 12 (of 13) at Goodwood last time.
His trainer Mark Johnston - among the winners here on Wednesday - has won that seven-furlong Goodwood nursery in three of the past eight seasons but the wide stall and ease underfoot both looked to contribute to Whitefeathersfall going off an unconsidered 28/1 chance.
He’s consequently quite a big price again for York but that underestimates his earlier form and a return to forcing tactics could unlock some untapped potential over a trip we already know he stays really well. That stamina was evident when just missing out in a sustained battle with Charlie Appleby’s Albahr at Haydock on June 9, the front pair pulling seven lengths clear of the remainder.
Subsequently gelded, the Godolphin-owned winner is now rated 99 after bolting up under a penalty at the same venue since, so dropping the Johnston runner from 86 to 84 after Goodwood may prove way too hasty, especially as he’ll be back on a much sounder surface here – barring any heavy local showers.
Johnston knows this family well having also trained the selection's half-siblings Alexander M, Rebel Assault, Assault On Rome and Outbacker to win 15 races between them and at some stage things are going to click for Whitefeathersfall too. Given the odds, I’ll take my chances it all comes together from a stands’ side draw on the Knavesmire.
Take two in major mile puzzle
The Clipper Logistics Handicap is the big betting race and there are a couple of interesting angles which could lead to a bet.
They include the fact William Haggas and David O’Meara are responsible for six of the 20 runners between them, featuring the eyecatching Tammani who has incidentally made the switch from Haggas to O’Meara – via two runs in France for Edouard Monfort.
O’Meara has a superb track record when it comes to picking up horses from across the Channel and first time out for his latest new yard may well be the time to side with the four-year-old son of Make Believe, who has some smart form behind Pyledriver from his juvenile days, plus a Group Three second at Deauville when still in the care of Haggas just 12 months ago.
He was tailed off when last seen in May this year and has since been gelded so there are clearly risks attached to him despite a mark of 97 looking perfectly manageable on the pick of his efforts.
Ametist looks the Haggas first-string but he is 1lb wrong on these terms and has never raced beyond seven furlongs, while Maydanny is another badly off (2lb) carrying the 6lb extra for winning the Golden Mile at Goodwood, where Escobar was a good third and stablemate Orbaan shaped relatively well from well off the pace to end up sixth.
In a wide-open race, I’m keen to take two against the field and will start with sole three-year-old PYTHAGORAS for Richard Fahey.
No three-year-old has won this in the past decade but only 11 have tried which is a pretty tiny sample size and when you consider three of them finished second then it’s hardly a stick with which to beat Pythagoras.
He’s arguably not quite come up to scratch so far this season and was undoubtedly disappointing when sent off 3/1 favourite for the Coral Challenge at Sandown last time, finishing well in arrears of several of these reopposing rivals.
However, it looks significant connections want to stick with the mile trip for now – his three previous outings this year came over 10 furlongs – and I’d argue it’s too early to be writing him off given his real progress came through the back end of last season.
It could well be that he’s a bit of an autumn campaigner which would help explain the 47-day layoff since Sandown, where he didn’t really pick up when asked for maximum effort. He’ll need to be much sharper when it matters here but a strongly-run race will suit and ground conditions should be spot on as well.
His Dante sixth behind Hurricane Lane here in May was a fairly encouraging first sight of the York track and suggests he should be competitive off a mark of 98 in the fullness of time.
The other one to be on in the same race is ASCENSION who is unbeaten from four starts across the months of August and September and, like Pythagoras, has been eased 1lb in the weights since we last saw him.
He’s another coming here fresh too after 40 days off following his course run in the John Smith’s Cup, when travelling pretty sweetly until the two-furlong marker where stamina clearly became an issue.
He’ll benefit from the return to a mile (just shy of the mile, to be precise) and is now only 4lb higher than when winning in really good style from subsequent Newmarket scorer Path Of Thunder at Newbury in the middle of May (three winners in total have emerged from that race so far).
His Royal Hunt Cup bid in between Newbury and York can be excused as he raced far too freely before getting a torrid trip down by the stands rail and he did pretty well to be beaten only 10 lengths in the circumstances.
I also like the return to a turning track for Ascension. It’s true that he looked to hate the whole experience when sent to Chester earlier in the spring but he was deadly around the (less pronounced) bend at Ayr’s Gold Cup meeting last year and it can often help keep a keen-going horse like him on the bridle for a bit longer.
More rain would probably help him show his very best but good ground holds no fears at all and he should get a lovely tow into this from stall five with Maydanny just on his inside in three.
His trainer Roger Varian is having a seriously good month (32% strike-rate at time of writing), while Andrea Atzeni has ridden Ascension for all three of the horse’s handicap wins to date. There's a lot to like, chiefly the price.
Published at 1600 BST on 18/08/21
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