York tips: Best value bets for Ebor Festival on Friday August 20
Ebor Festival tips: Friday, August 20
1pt win State Of Bliss in 1.50 York at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Gis A Sub in 3.00 York at 16/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Chil Chil in 3.35 York at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
Pace burn-up may suit Moore mount in Nunthorpe
Blink and you’ll miss it – the 2021 Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes is guaranteed to be run at an exceptional lick and it’s great the race has attracted North American ace Golden Pal and French-trained Suesa, who go into it as favourites to topple the locals.
Course specialist Winter Power, trained an hour up the A64 by Tim Easterby, heads the home defence for an event dominated for the past two seasons by now-retired Battaash. Like Charlie Hills’ superstar, Winter Power likes to set about her business early on in her races but she’s clearly not alone in that regard here, with a genuine burn-up anticipated towards the far-side rail.
Generally speaking, speed carries particularly well on the straight five furlongs here but I can’t help having a nibble at something that is likely to be drawn into it and finishing fast, rather than clinging on, and with respectful nods to Arecibo and Emaraaty Ana, CHIL CHIL looks to have a superb set-up on her first ever try at this trip.
She’s run over five and a half a few times without success, all six of her career wins to date having been achieved at six furlongs. However, the really powerful manner in which she travels has always been her strongest asset and I find it hard to believe she won’t be perfectly at home over the minimum distance now she’s fully strengthened up.
She’ll probably have to be even better for the new trip, of course, but that’s far from out of the question for a five-year-old mare who has improved out of all recognition since winning an Ascot handicap off a mark of 85 12 months ago.
Andrew Balding’s runner took the step into Group company in her stride when winning the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle earlier this year, since when she was pitched into the July Cup for her top-class debut where she didn’t get a great run through under Rob Hornby and in the end did reasonably well to be beaten just four lengths by Newmarket winner Starman.
Soft ground scuppered plans to run under a big weight in the Stewards’ Cup and that may prove a blessing in disguise as she arrives here a fresh horse again, while the draw could hardly have been more favourable given she’s in stall three, positioned between Golden Pal (one) and the other two really obvious pace-setters in Bedford Flyer (four) and Winter Power (six).
Chil Chil should get a lovely tow into things under Ryan Moore (2-7 for the yard this year), who takes the ride for the first time, and at 20/1 and bigger she looks a little underestimated by the market.
Ryan runner well worth another chance
Sticking with the pattern races and the Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes is quite inviting as the top two in the betting have Group Two penalties to carry and while only a handful have tried, no juvenile has defied the mandatory 3lb extra to win this in the past decade.
That opens things up a little away from Lusail and Berkshire Shadow and the one I really like the look of is Kevin Ryan’s GIS A SUB, who was ticking along nicely before blotting his copybook to an extent in the Richmond Stakes.
There’s obviously a line of thinking that the step up in grade at Goodwood exposed him as not having the requisite class to compete at such a level but I’m inclined to take an alternative view as the form looked a bit dubious at the time, given they seemed to crawl through the early stages.
The only horse from the race to have run since is fourth home Ebro River and he won a Group One in Ireland on his next start so it wouldn’t be a surprise if one or two of the others were to prove a bit better than the bare form in time too.
Gis A Sub was a big eyecatcher in that regard, very much running his race ‘upside down’ as he fought for his head early on and was left with very little in the tank for the final furlong.
He’d travelled powerfully at the head of affairs on his first couple of racecourse appearances in the north and a swift return to those kind of tactics, which we know work so well in general on the Knavesmire, should be on the cards.
The earlier form is more than a little encouraging too. He looked dead unlucky to miss out in a photo finish with subsequent Newbury winner Bosh (the pair four lengths clear) over this course and distance on debut, while his all-the-way Pontefract win (six furlongs again) came at the chief expense of filly Hellomydarlin, who has since been third in a Group One in France and filled the same spot when running off a mark of 98 in a quality nursery here on Wednesday.
Ryan has won the Gimcrack four times all told, three of his winners having run at York earlier in the season, and Gis A Sub is the clear first-string here over Spitting Feathers for the same owners. He remains quite promising in my book and merits an interest at the price.
Total bliss for Johnston and Currie
The Sky Bet Handicap kicks off day three and Wink Of An Eye – out to complete a remarkable five straight handicap victories – is possibly worth opposing with the other three-year-old, namely Mark Johnston’s STATE OF BLISS, who was beaten a neck by the Haggas horse at Goodwood but has since improved again for the step up to this slightly longer distance at Ascot.
He’s been raised 8lb in total for those two most recent efforts and is consequently 4lb worse off with Wink Of An Eye who only went up that amount for Goodwood, but the son of Gleneagles will love the drying ground which isn’t certain to suit many in this line-up – including the favourite – and it’s not hard to see him really taking off and going through the grades now he’s found his niche in terms of trip.
Nicola Currie got a great tune out of State Of Bliss when winning the 12-furlong contest for three-year-olds on Shergar Cup day the other week and a more positive ride here could help negate any possible issues arising from a very wide draw.
Published at 1600 BST on 19/08/21
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